臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文援用吳齊殷教授主持之衛生署國衛院所資助的「青少年藥物濫用之起因：一個社會學習模型」(DOH87-,88-HR-621)研究計畫，由1996至2001共6年之長期追蹤調查資料，以犯罪生命歷程理論之概念，探討保護(自我、自律效能)與風險(非行同儕與負向情緒)因素影響台灣少年偏差行為發展的效果，並依此提出新的發現與理論辯證。
作者發現台灣少年偏差行為軌跡發展可分為6個類型群組，與西方少年軌跡群組最大不同的特性是，幾乎所有軌跡群組少年的偏差行為發展，在升學前後國、高中時期均有顯著之差異。其次，檢驗非行同儕之效果，本文分析顯示，非行同儕不論是預測各軌跡群組的偏差行為，或是在國、高中時期，都具有顯著的影響力。除此之外，本文發現非行同儕具有「平台」效果，可透過交互作用連結其他負向情緒、效能因素，而促發或抑制偏差行為的發生。這個發現調和了控制與社會學習理論對非行同儕效果的爭議。在交互作用的組合關係中，控制與社會學習理論觀點，均能適當地解釋非行同儕對偏差行為的影響。
在負向情緒方面，符合Agnew將憤怒視為緊張理論核心的觀點，本文發現以群組相互比較時，憤怒影響力確實高於憂鬱。還有長期以來，犯罪學、心理學界對於憂鬱與偏差行為併發模式，主要4個觀點(穩定、相互影響、表現出來與挫敗) 之爭議，本文運用群組-整體-時段的分析模式，發現4個觀點在特定群組與時段中均獲得驗證，本文之分析不但解釋了造成觀點互異的原因，也調和了彼 此的爭議。
效能因素方面，符合Bandura效能理論認為，自我與自律效能可以緩和偏差行為的觀點，分析結果發現，自律效能與非行同儕間相互克制的情形非常明顯，而自我效能在國中時期，具有抑制偏差行為發生效果。進一步，以整體樣本為分析，本文發現少年效能發展對偏差行為影響有轉換效果，國中時期是自我效能為主導；高中時期則轉為自律效能主導。
目前少年犯罪實證研究大多專注於風險因素，但是對於風險與保護因素之間的相互關係，是否也能影響少年偏差行為卻較少重視。本文發現自我效能與憂鬱間有高度相關性，其組合關係對偏差行為的影響機制，在國中時期中是以高自我效能為引導，而高中時期中則是以高憂鬱為引導。這個論點在效能-憂鬱組與非行同儕交互作用效果的驗證上依然成立。
最後，在少年犯罪生命歷程研究方法上，本文提出必須重視時段(升學轉捩點前後)與樣本(軌跡群組及整體)的潛在影響。藉由這個這分析模式，本文較過去相關研究更為了解，少年時期非行同儕與其他負向情緒與效能因素之交互作用效果，在不同時段與群組中發展的特性，研究方法的改良，也可作為本文主要貢獻之一。

This article use the database from “The Etiology of Adolescent''s Substance Abuse: A Social Learning Model 1996-2001 National Health Research Institute” (DOH87-,88-HR-621), conducted by Professor Wu Chyi-In. Based on the six-year panel data and concept of the life course criminology, the author discovered new concepts and provided supporting evidences on the effect of protective factors (self efficacy , self regulatory efficacy), and risk factors (deviant peers, negative emotions) on the Taiwanese juvenile delinquency development.
Based on the author’s research, Taiwanese juvenile delinquency can be categorized to six groups. Different from the Western youth, Taiwanese juvenile delinquency is significantly different from the time period of junior high school to high school. The analysis shows that deviant peers can predict the delinquency of each trajectory group, or cause significant impact from junior high school to high school. Besides, deviant peers also serve the “platform” role, which connects or interacts the negative emotions and efficacy factors, agitating or mediating the delinquency development. The research result soothes the debate of control and social learning theory on the deviant peers. Through the interactive combinations, control and social learning theory yield legitimate explanations on the delinquency impact from the deviant peers.
From the aspect of negative emotion, the research result is in accordance with the core perspective of strain theory. The author found that the influence of anger is much higher than that of depression while comparing different trajectory groups,. It has been a long-term debate on the effect of co-occurrence of depression and delinquency in criminology and psychology. The debate includes four controversial points: stability, mutual influence, acting-out, and failure. By conducting the analysis model of groups and time period, the above mentioned four points were verified and proved. This article not only explains the cause of the different views, but also soothe the debate.
For the influence of the efficacy factors, the research result is accordance with Bandura’s efficacy theory; self and self regulatory efficacy can slow down the delinquency. The Analysis shows that the repelling situation between the self regulatory and deviant peers is quite obvious. Self-efficacy can suppress the delinquency during the junior high school. Furthermore, when analyzing the entire sample, this article discovers that efficacy factors can change the delinquency. During the junior high school, self-efficacy takes the lead, whereas the self regulatory takes the lead during the high school.
Recent researches on the juvenile delinquency most focus on the risk factors and less focus on the mutual relations between risk and protective factors. This article shows that self-efficacy and depression has a close relationship, the combination relationship causes strong impact on the delinquency. During the junior high school, the high self-efficacy takes the lead, whereas the high depression takes the lead during the high school. This theory is also well-proved on the interaction result between efficacy-depression and deviant peers.
Finally, this article emphasizes the potential influence of timing (turning points of the schooling) and sampling (trajectory groups) while conducting the life course criminology of juvenile delinquency research. Using this research approach, This article is more elucidated than other relevant articles in the past on the interaction effect among deviant peers, negative emotions and efficacy factors on the development of different time and groups. Improved research methods are also one of the major contributions in this article.

目 錄

第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………………… 1
第一節 研究動機與目的…………………………………………………………. 1
一、偏差群組軌跡………………………………………………………………… 2
二、轉捩點………………………………………………………………………… 2
三、非行同儕……………………………………………………………………… 3
四、影響少年時期軌跡發展之保護與風險因素………………………………. 6
(一)負向情緒因素……………………………………………………………… 6
(二) 效能因素…………………………………………………………………… 7
(三) 風險、保護因素中的鏈結關係…………………………………………… 8
(四) 其它重要風險與保護因素(控制變項) ………………………………… 9
五、分析方法的改善……………………………………………………………… 10
第二節 重要名詞解釋………………………………………………………………. 11

第二章 文獻探討………………………………………………………………… 13
第一節 少年偏差行為軌跡群組發展特性………………………………………. 13
一、 犯罪發展生命歷程理論…………………………………………………… 13
二、 犯罪與年齡關係…………………………………………………………… 14
三、 動態發展軌跡—少年偏差行為發展類型分類取向與特性……………… 15
四、 早發型與後發型群組的差異……………………………………………… 16
五、 少年時期的轉捩點………………………………………………………… 20
第二節 影響少年偏差行為軌跡發展的風險與保護因素—理論間的競合…… 21
第三節 同儕因素…………………………………………………………………. 27
一、 同儕影響少年偏差行為之原因…………………………………………… 27
二、 非行同儕的影響機制—不同理論觀點…………………………………… 28
三、 目前對少年偏差同儕測量的批評………………………………………… 30
四、 非行同儕如何影響犯罪年齡曲線？……………………………………… 31
五、 同儕的交互作用對於偏差軌跡的影響—目前研究較未探索的地方…… 33
第四節 負向情緒因素……………………………………………………………. 33
一、 負向情緒對少年偏差行為的影響………………………………………… 33
二、 憤怒情緒……………………………………………………………………… 35
三、 憂鬰情緒……………………………………………………………………… 36
四、 同儕對負向情緒的影響…………………………………………………… 39
五、 同儕與憂鬱間的交互作用………………………………………………… 40
第五節 效能因素……………………………………………………………………. 42
一、人類自為性與犯罪…………………………………………………………… 42
二、效能類型對少年偏差行為之影響…………………………………………. 43
三、效能因素對於犯罪軌跡的影響……………………………………………. 44
四、非行同儕與效能因素的交互作用…………………………………………. 45
第六節 效能對負向情緒的影響…………………………………………………. 46
第七節 其它控制變項……………………………………………………………. 48
一、 父母教養與少年期間偏差行為之關係……………………………………. 48
二、 父母教養方式………………………………………………………………. 50
三、 家庭結構的影響……………………………………………………………. 51
四、 學校因素對防治少年偏差行為之重要性…………………………………. 52
五、 學校因素對少年時期偏差軌跡發展的影響效果…………………………. 54
六、 少年偏差行為中的性別差異………………………………………………. 54
七、 不同偏差行為軌跡群組中是否有性別差異？……………………………. 55
八、 總結…………………………………………………………………………. 56

第三章 研究方法……………………………………………………………… 59
第一節 研究架構……………………………………………………………………. 59
第二節 研究策略……………………………………………………………………. 61
一、 模型分析程序…………………………………………………………………. 61
二、 樣本選取策略…………………………………………………………………. 62
三、 變項時間點選擇說明………………………………………………………. 64
第三節 資料與變項…………………………………………………………………. 65
一、 資料來源及取樣……………………………………………………………. 65
二、 依變項…………………………………………………………………………. 65
三、 自變項………………………………………………………………………. 66
四、 分析策略………………………………………………………………………. 69
(一)半參數混合波松模型………………………………………………………. 69
(二) IRT項目反應理論…………………………………………………………. 71
(三) MI多重插補法……………………………………………………………… 72
(四)缺失值填補策略……………………………………………………………. 73
(五)平均效果量……………………………………………………………………. 74
(六) HLM成長曲線模型………………………………………………………… 75
(七) 隨機效果負二項分配模型…………………………………………………. 77
(八) 群組比較邏輯回歸模型……………………………………………………. 79
(九) 隨機效果Tobit模型………………………………………………………. 80

第肆章 研究發現……………………………………………………………… 81
第一節 台灣地區少年偏差行為發展軌跡群組…………………………………. 82
第二節 各變項在國、高中階段差異之效果量分析……………………………… 84
第三節 個別軌跡群組負向情緒、效能因素對偏差行為影響分析……………… 87
第四節 負向情緒、效能因素影響之各群組間比較……………………………… 101
第五節 整體樣本HGLM分析……………………………………………………. 105
第六節 憂鬱-偏差行為併發的四種觀點驗證…………………………………… 116
第七節 憂鬱與自我效能鍵結關聯分析…………………………………………. 120

第伍章 結論與建議……………………………………………………………. 125
第一節 研究結論……………………………………………………………………. 125
第二節 對少年防治之建議………………………………………………………. 134
第三節 研究限制與未來研究方向………………………………………………. 136

參考書目…………………………………………………………………………. 138
附錄1 SAS Traj程式………………………………………………………………. 153
附錄2 升學分流對偏差行為影響之傾向分數分析………………………………. 154




表 次

表4-1-1…研究變項在國、高中階段之敘述統計……………………………. 81
表4-1-2… SAS Traj模型分析結果各群組數之BIC值……………………… 82
表4-2-1…升學轉捩點前後各變項在少年偏差軌跡群組差異之效果量分析… 86
表4-3-1…無犯罪組內風險、保護因素對偏差行為影響之隨機效果負二項模型分析……………………………………………………………89
表4-3-2…後發型群組風險、保護因素對偏差行為影響之隨機效果負二項模型分析……………………………………………………………90
表4-3-3…下滑中止組風險、保護因素對偏差行為影響之隨機效果負二項模型分析……………………………………………………………93
表4-3-4…持續提升組風險、保護因素對偏差行為影響之隨機效果Tobit模型分析……………………………………………………………….95
表4-3-5…起伏不定型組風險、保護因素對偏差行為影響之隨機效果負二項模型分析…………………………………………………………98
表4-3-6…高度持續風險、保護因素對組少年偏差行為影響效果Tobit模型 99
表4-4-1…群組間比較之異質性邏輯迴歸分析………………………………. 103
表4-5-1…整體樣本第1~3波風險、保護因素對少年偏差行為影響HGLM Poisson成長曲線分析………………………………………………108
表4-5-2…整體樣本第4~6波風險、保護因素對少年偏差行為影響HGLM Poisson成長曲線分析………………………………………………109
表4-5-3… 整體樣本1~6波風險、保護因素對少年偏差行為影響HGLM Poisson成長曲線分析………………………………………………110
表4-6-1…各模型中憂鬱係數分析結果一覽表………………………………. 117
表4-6-2…影響少年憂鬱因素之Tobit模型…………………………………… 119
表4-7-1…非行同儕與[憂鬱-效能]鏈結關係之交互作用隨機效果負二項分配模型分析…………………………………………………………123
表5-1-1…各模型效能、負向情緒變項，以及與非行同儕之交互作用，在各軌跡群組與整體樣本內顯著性一覽表……………………………128
附表2-1…傾向分數配對分析前後各研究變項偏誤改變情形……………… 154
附表2-2…傾向分數配對前後各軌跡群組內偏差行為差異之比較…………………………………………………………………156




圖 次

圖2-1-1…2005年台閩地區各類刑案嫌疑人平均年齡犯罪曲線分佈圖… 14
圖3-1-1…非行同儕相處與負向情緒、效能因素間交互作用對少年偏差發展與軌跡群組影響模型…………………………………………………60
圖3-3-1…以SAS Traj與MI填補整波缺失值後之樣本分配情形比較…. 74
圖4-1-1…台灣地區少年偏差行為發展軌跡………………………………………… 84
圖4-4-1…下滑中止組，憂鬱與非行同儕之交互作用對偏差行為影響…. 105
圖4-5-1…不同層級的憂鬱症狀對預測偏差行為發展之影響…………… 111
圖4-5-2…不同層級憤怒情緒對預測偏差行為發展之影響……………… 112
圖4-5-3…不同層級自我效能隨時間改變對預測偏差行為發展之影響… 113
圖4-5-4…不同層級自律效能隨時間改變對預測偏差行為發展之影響… 113
圖4-5-5…憂鬱與非行同儕交互作用對偏差行為影響………………………… 114
圖4-5-6…憤怒情緒與非行同儕交互作用對偏差行為影響…………………. 115
圖4-5-7…自律效能與非行同儕交互作用對偏差行為之影響……………… 115
圖4-5-8…自我效能與非行同儕交互作用對偏差行為影響…………………… 116
圖4-7-1.不同的[自我效能-憂鬱]組合其偏差行為發生機率……………… 124

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