臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

保留現有顧客比起獲取新顧客所付出的成本來得少，且提高5%的顧客保留率會提高企業25%~85%的獲利(Reichheld & Sasser,1990)。顧客流失管理對企業來說相當重要，但許多研究專注在改善預測模型的準確度，流失預測模型缺少相互搭配的保留策略，難以依照企業目標去選擇標的顧客。因此，本研究採用利潤最大化保留策略進行顧客流失管理，以電信公司為例。首先比較CART決策樹、羅吉斯迴歸、類神經網路的預測流失者的能力，選擇表現最佳的模型搭配利潤最大化策略，以精準鎖定獲利顧客並決定最適的目標顧客大小。此外，也針對模型的重要影響變數進行探討與驗證。研究結果顯示，類神經網路的預測表現最佳，而利潤最大化策略在各種情境下的期望利潤都高於流失機率策略，證實利潤最大化保留策略的優勢。本研究提供企業在保留決策上能精確鎖定獲利顧客並預見一場保留活動所能帶來的期望利潤。

Retaining an existing customer costs much less than acquiring a new customer, and increasing customer retention by 5% can increase profits from 25-85% (Reichheld & Sasser, 1990). Customer churn management is very important for companies, but many studies focus on improving the accuracy of predictive models. A churn prediction models lacks a matching strategy, making it difficult to select target customers according to corporate goals. Therefore, the study adopts the profit maximization retention strategy for customer churn management, taking the telecommunications company as an example. CART, logistic regression and neural network are compared according to their ability to predict churners, and the outperformer is applied to adopt a profit maximization strategy in order to accurately target profitable customers and determine the optimal target customer size. The important influence variables of the model are discussed and verified. The results show that the neural network has the best prediction performance, and the profit maximization strategy has higher expected profit in various situations than the churn probability strategy, which confirms the advantage of the profit maximization retention strategy. This study provides companies with the ability to accurately target profitable customers in retention decisions and anticipate the expected profit from a retention activity.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 論文結構與研究流程 3
第二章 文獻回顧與探討 5
第一節 顧客流失管理 5
第二節 決策樹 8
第三節 羅吉斯迴歸 9
第四節 類神經網路 10
第五節 評估模型表現之指標 11
第六節 探討影響顧客不續約通話服務的重要變數 14
第三章 研究方法與設計 16
第一節 數據前處理 18
第二節 探索性分析 20
第三節 訓練流失預測模型與評估準則 21
第四節 計算顧客期望利潤、決定目標顧客大小 23
第五節 比較流失機率與利潤最大化兩項保留策略 26
第四章 資料分析與結果 27
第一節 探索性分析 27
第二節 三種模型評估結果之比較 33
第三節 每位顧客期望利潤、決定目標顧客大小 40
第四節 比較流失機率與利潤導向兩項保留策略 42
第五節 驗證影響顧客不續約通話服務的重要變數 44
第五章 結論與建議 48
第一節 研究結論 48
第二節 行銷意涵 50
第三節 研究限制與未來研究方向 51
參考文獻 52
附錄 55
附錄一：CART決策樹圖-訓練組 55
附錄二：CART決策樹圖-測試組 56
附錄三：CART決策樹-自變數的重要性 57
附錄四：羅吉斯迴歸-各特徵之權重 58
附錄五：羅吉斯迴歸-變數相關性 59
附錄六：類神經網路-自變數的重要性 67

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