臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本論文蒐集2000-2012年間15國來台觀光客及該15國物價為旅遊價格、台灣競爭對手國之物價為替代價格及匯率、旅客母國人均GDP、人口數、距離及2003年SARS、2008年金融海嘯事件的虛擬變數等資料，運用計量方法對所蒐集之195筆觀察值探討旅遊價格及替代價格對於國際來台旅客人數的影響。本文主要實證結果發現：
（1）在旅遊價格方面，物價不影響中國大陸來台旅客的人數，但當旅客母國物價愈高或台灣物價愈低時，會增加中國大陸以外14國的來台觀光客人數。
（2）在替代價格部分，競爭對手國的物價愈高時，則會吸引更多中國大陸以外14國的來台旅客人數，而對於中國大陸來台觀光人數則無影響。
（3）新台幣與旅客母國貨幣間匯率不影響中國大陸來台旅客人數，而新台幣貶值會增加其餘14國來台旅客人數。

This study gathers 195 observations of Taiwan’s international visitors from 15 origin countries between 2000-2012. We also collect these 15 origin countries’ price level and Taiwan’s competitors’ price level as instruments of tourism price and substitute price. Under the control of exchange rates, GDP per capita, number of population, distance and the explosion of SARS in 2003 and economic crisis in 2008, we conduct a regression to investigate the effects of tourism price and substitute price on Taiwan’s international visitors arrivals. We find that
(1)the tourism price has no effect on visitors from China Mainland but it positively impacts the visitors from remaining 14 countries.
(2)Higher substitute price attracts more visitors to Taiwan except China Mainland while it does not affect the arrivals from China Mainland.
(3)Depreciation of New Taiwan Dollar (NTD) does not influence the visitors from China Mainland but increases arrivals from remaining 14 countries.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景及目的 1
第二章 文獻回顧 7
第一節 來台國際旅客 7
第二節 旅遊價格 15
第三節 替代價格 18
第四節 匯率波動 19
第三章 模型設定及資料說明 21
第一節 模型設定 21
第二節 資料說明 21
第四章 實證結果 30
第五章 結論與建議 39
附錄一 41
附錄二 44
附錄三 46
附錄四 本論文所蒐集之樣本原始資料 48
參考文獻 57

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