臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

協商是一種非常複雜的過程，同時需考量的因素非常的多。在一對多協商中，買方在同時面對多個賣方時，除了本身反提案的考量，還需考慮到各賣方提案價值的衡量。故本研究歸納出四種整合戰術，分別為最佳價值整合戰術、平均價值整合戰術、單獨屬性最佳價值整合戰術及平均讓步整合戰術。透過自動協商代理人的建置，與價值函數(Value Function)的導入，模擬測試四種整合戰術與一對一非同步協商戰術的協議結果。由其中了解不同戰術的使用，對協商結果會產生哪些不同的影響。同步協商中若使用平均讓步整合戰術協商失敗率會較高，且最終結果對單一方的價值而言也是最低的。而其餘的同步協商整合戰術都有較優於非同步協商整合戰術的結果。

Negotiation is complicated since it requires diverse considerations in its overall process. In a scenario of one buyer and several sellers’ negotiation, the buyer needs to consider the opposite proposals from all the sellers concurrently to make the next decision. In this research, we study four different negotiation tactics to integrate and analyze the various opposite proposals. They are (1) best value integration (2) average value integration (3) independent attribute best value integration (4) average concession integration. Multiple automatic agents were built to run simulation to analyze the behavior of those proposed negotiation tactics. Instead of utility function, this agent uses value function to support the negotiation process. In concurrent negotiation, the tactic-average value integration will cause a higher fail rate, and the value of the value function for the buyer is the lowest. We also found using the concurrent negotiation integration tactics can provide the buyer a better result.

表目錄 III
圖目錄 IV
第1章 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 研究目的 4
1.3 研究方法 5
1.4 研究結果 6
第2章 文獻探討 9
2.1 自動協商支援系統 9
2.2 展望理論 12
2.3 協商戰術 16
2.4 協商策略 21
第3章 同步協商代理人 24
3.1 買方子代理人 27
3.2 買方整合代理人 28
3.3 賣方代理人 32
第4章 實作與效能模擬分析 33
4.1 系統架構、功能說明 33
4.2 不同整合戰術的效能分析 35
4.3 不同協商策略的效能分析 40
4.4 時間相依戰術參數的改變對協商的影響 43
第5章 結論與未來研究 47
5.1 結論 47
5.2 未來研究方向 48
參考文獻 50
附錄一、耐心策略下協議達成價值 55
附錄二、急迫策略下協議達成價值 59
附錄三、急迫策略下協議達成回合統計 63

表目錄
表2-1：價值函數 15
表4-1：耐心策略下協商雙方平均最終提案價值 36
表4-2：賣方戰術對協議達成價值的影響 37
表4-3：耐心策略下協議達成回合統計 39
表4-4：急迫策略平均達成協議價值 41
表4-5：第6回合前達成協議百分比 42

圖目錄
圖1-1：研究流程圖 6
圖2-1：協商支援架構 10
圖2-2：遞增型邊際函數圖 14
圖2-3：多項函數(左)與指數函數(右)在不同β值的讓步情形 18
圖3-1：系統架構 24
圖3-2：耐心策略協商過程 26
圖4-1：系統架構圖 34
圖4-2：買方採用不同β值的協議結果 44
圖4-3：賣方採用不同β值對買方協議價值的影響 45

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