臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究提出一個不確定環境中的模糊線型供應鏈模型，外在供應商交貨率及外部消費者需求是導致整條供應鏈不確定的主要變數，本研究利用模糊集合來描述線型供應鏈之不確定性，主要的討論目標是在合理的供應鏈總成本（使每一節點的持有成本及短缺成本最小）及可接受的產品交貨能力下來決定每一供應鏈存貨節點之最佳訂購量及存貨水準。此外，本研究討論兩種供應鏈存貨控制方法：（1）完全分權式控制法（2）部分協調式控制法，分別以這兩種供應鏈存貨控制方法提出了最佳模糊決策，並做供應鏈績效評估。研究所得結果如下：
(1) 以模糊集合來描述外在環境不確定性之模糊供應鏈模型，其最佳 訂購量為一組模糊訂購決策，依照外部消費者需求量之可能性及外部供應商交貨率之可能性的不同，會有不同的最佳訂購量。
(2) 當外部消費者需求量之可能性及外部供應商交貨率之可能性愈高時，最佳訂購決策愈確定；反之，當外部消費者需求量之可能性及外部供應商交貨率之可能性愈低時，最佳訂購決策愈模糊。
(3) 以完全分權式控制法來規劃線型供應鏈中每一存貨節點之訂購量及存貨控制時，會產生每一存貨節點之最佳訂購量皆相同之結果。
(4) 以部分協調式控制法來規劃線型供應鏈中每一存貨節點之訂購量及存貨控制時，和完全分權式控制法最大的不同是，會產生每一存貨節點之最佳訂購量皆不同之結果。
(5) 當外部消費者需求量之可能性及外部供應商交貨率之可能性愈高時，供應鏈之滿足率（Fill Rate）愈高；反之，當外部消費者需求量之可能性及外部供應商交貨率之可能性愈低時，滿足率（Fill Rate）愈低。
(6) 部分協調式控制法可使供應鏈系統產生較高之滿足率，因此若決策者將顧客滿意度視為決策關鍵因素，我們建議用部分協調式控制法來規劃線型供應鏈中每一存貨節點之訂購量及存貨控制。
(7) 完全分權式控制法可使供應鏈系統產生較好之成本控制，因此若決策者將成本控制視為決策關鍵因素，我們建議用完全分權式控制法來規劃線型供應鏈中每一存貨節點之訂購量及存貨控制。

The study offers a fuzzy linear supply chain model that operates in an uncertain environment. It shows that the external supplier reliability and the external consumer demand are the major factors of the uncertainty. This study uses fuzzy sets to explain the uncertainty of linear supply chain, and its major goal is to determine the order quantities for each inventory in the supply chain, that give an acceptable service level of the supply chain at reasonable total cost (to minimize both holding cost and shortage cost in each stock period). In addition, two control concepts of the supply chain are treated: (1) fully decentralized control of each inventory and (2) partial coordinate control in the inventories. These two methods can individually turn out the best fuzzy decision and evaluate the supply chain performance as well. The results of this study are as follows.
(1)The best order quantities of the fuzzy linear supply chain model using fuzzy sets to explain the uncertainty is a fuzzy decision. It shows that the best order quantities will be relatively changed according to different possibilities of goods need from the possibilities of the external supplier reliability and the external consumer demand.
(2) When the possibilities of the external supplier reliability and the external consumer demand become increasing, the best order quantities turns out more clearly. On the other hand, when these two possibilities mentioned above become decreasing, the best order quantities turns out more fuzzily.
(3) By using fully decentralized control to plan order quantities and inventories in each inventory of the linear supply chain, it reflects that the best order quantities in each inventory turns out the same.
(4) By using partial coordinate control to plan order quantities and inventories in each inventory of the linear supply chain, it reflects that the difference compared with fully decentralized control is that the best order quantities in each inventory turns out differently.
(5) When the possibilities of the external supplier reliability and the external consumer demand become increasing, the fill rate of the supply chain is also relatively increasing. On the other hand, when the possibilities mentioned above become decreasing, the fill rate of the supply chain is decreasing too.
(6) Partial coordinate control can result a better fill rate of the supply chain. Thus, in case consumer’s satisfaction serves as the sole factor for decision making, then the method of partial coordinate control is recommended to use so as to plan order quantities and inventories in each inventory of the linear supply chain.
(7) Fully decentralized control can result a better control on the cost of the supply chain. Thus, in case cost control serves as the sole factor for decision making, then the method of fully decentralized control is recommended to use so as to plan order quantities and inventories in each inventory of the linear supply chain.

書名頁 i 論文口試委員審定書 ii
授權書 iii
中文摘要 iv
英文摘要 vi
目錄 x
表目錄 xiii
圖目錄 xv
第一章 緒論 1
1-1 研究背景與動機 2
1-2 研究目標與架構 3
1-2-1 研究目標 3
1-2-2 研究架構 4
第二章 文獻探討 6
2-1 模糊理論 7
2-1-1 模糊集合論 7
2-1-2 模糊數與模糊數的運算 13
2-2 供應鏈系統 17
2-2-1 供應鏈管理之定義 17
2-2-2 供應鏈管理之應用 20
2-2-3 相關之供應鏈模型 26
2-2-4 供應鏈之績效評估指標 28
第三章 模糊供應鏈模型 30
3-1 基本定義及假設 31
3-1-1 供應鏈之定義 31
3-1-2 供應鏈管理之定義 32
3-1-3 相關之基本假設 32
3-2 不確定性之處理 33
3-2-1 模糊需求 34
3-2-2 模糊供給 35
3-3 完全分權式控制之模型 35
3-3-1 模糊需求、供給確定之供應鏈模型 36
3-3-2 模糊需求、模糊供給之供應鏈模型 38
3-4 部分協調式控制之模型 39
3-4-1 模糊需求、供給確定之供應鏈模型 40
3-4-2 模糊需求、模糊供給之供應鏈模型 41
第四章 個案研究 43
4-1 模糊供應鏈模型 44
4-2 模糊外在消費者需求 46
4-2-1 回顧期間之模糊總需求 46
4-2-2 回顧期間之模糊需求分配 47
4-3 完全分權式控制法之最佳模糊決策 48
4-3-1 模糊需求、供給確定之最佳模糊決策 48
4-3-2 模糊需求、模糊供給之最佳模糊決策 50
4-4 部分協調式控制法之最佳模糊決策 58
4-4-1 模糊需求、供給確定之最佳模糊決策 59
4-4-2 模糊需求、模糊供給之最佳模糊決策 61
4-5 模糊線型供應鏈之績效評估 69
4-5-1 完全分權式控制法之績效評估 70
4-5-2 部分協調式控制法之績效評估 72
第五章 研究結果 76
5-1 供應鏈之最佳訂購量 77
5-1 供應鏈之績效評估 81
5-1 供應鏈之最佳決策 83
第六章敏感度分析 88
6-1 敏感度分析之結果 88
6-2 敏感度分析之貢獻 90
第七章 結論 102
7-1 研究結果 103
7-2 研究限制 104
7-3 研究建議 104
參考文獻 106
附錄
附錄一 模糊需求分配 111
附錄二 最佳訂購量程式 128
附錄三 完全分權式控制法最佳訂購量 129
附錄四 部分協調式控制法最佳訂購量 133
附錄五 完全分權式控制法之績效評估 137
附錄六 部分協調式控制法之績效評估 143

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