臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

由於全球新興市場正迅速萌芽，全世界各地房地產景氣看漲，亞洲、中東、北美、東歐趨積極進行基礎建設或民間工程，因此國際營建市場可謂前景似錦，具有發展潛力，以致許多已開發國家之企業無不積極的進入當地拓展市場，充實自身的實力，擴大企業經營版圖，但因國際市場專案工程趨向大型化、複雜化，所需資金與技術密集，系統整合難度高，各個不同性質工程界面亦多，已非國內傳統顧問公司所能單獨負擔，朝向國際聯合承攬模式，尋求國外夥伴團隊合作，已是必然的出路。
國際聯合承攬模式雖與合作夥伴共享資源、分攤風險、技術傳承、專業分工、利潤共享等優點，但因成員間不同的文化背景以致嚴重的影響了國際聯合承攬的執行成效，造成專案的失敗；因此必須審慎評估合作夥伴所帶來的風險程度，作為國際聯合承攬專案中遴選夥伴決策之基礎。
有鑑於此，本研究引入「多目標展望模式－MCPM」（Multi Criteria Prospect Model－MCPM）考量決策者風險偏好及效用之特性，應用模糊偏好關係（Fuzzy Preference Relations，FPR）對企業決策者之受測所得問卷進行評估，藉由瞭解決策者面對風險的容忍度；以及透過決策者之機率權重函數（Probability Weighting Function，PWF），配合效用函數（Utility Function，UF）應用，建立「國際聯合承攬專案之遴選夥伴決策模式」，協助決策者進行國際聯合承攬專案時，遴選最佳合作夥伴。決策模式分成兩階段：(1)國家階段：進入不同國家市場之風險評估，(2)專案遴選夥伴階段：眾多潛在合作夥伴為專案帶來最大效益之評估，藉由效用值作為評估決策準則，提供工程顧問公司於國際聯合承攬專案之遴選夥伴決策輔助應用。
透過實際案例驗證，本研究建立國際聯合承攬之遴選夥伴決策模式，符合國內顧問公司決策者偏好，作為後續有效之決策參考依據。

As the new developing market is grouping, and the area from all parts of the world are being expected to raise prosperously, like Asia, the Middle East, North America, eastern Europe to build foundation actively, Because of globalization, construction industries should try to find opportunity to bid on international project. But international project tends to maximization, complicates, fund, skill and the difficulty of system combination is high, traditional consultant company can’t alone to bid, therefore toward International Joint Venture model, finding the foreign partner’s team.
Shared resource, shares risk, technology passing on, specialized division of work, profit share, and some other advantages of cooperative partner on international joint ventures way, but members in different culture background to cause execution effect which serious influence international joint ventures. So must assess the cooperative partner brings the risk intensity, foundation of international joint venture partner selection.
This paper using“Multi Criteria Prospect Model (MCPM)”consider decision maker risk preference and utility it characteristic, using the Fuzzy Preference Relations (FPR) method to find the risk preference of decision maker, and which finds the utility value for reference by using decision maker Probability Weighting Function and Utility Function, building “International Joint Venture Partner Selection Model”support decision maker selecting partner in international joint venture. Decision way is divided into two Phase: (1) Macro level Phase: Risk analysis for entering difference countries.(2)Project of select partner level Phase: Numerous potential cooperative partners bring the assessment of the greatest benefit for project.
Prove, this research sets up the decision way of International Joint Venture Partner Selection Model through the real case, accord with the decision maker preference, consult the basis as the decision with effective follow-up.

第一章 緒論............................................................. 1
1.1 研究動機............................................................. 1
1.2 研究目的...... .......................................................3
1.3 研究範圍與限制....................................................... 5
1.4 研究內容與流程 .......................................................6
1.4.1 研究內容........................................................... 6
1.4.2 研究流程........................................................... 7
1.5 論文架構............................................................. 10
第二章 文獻回顧.......................................................... 11
2.1 工程顧問公司於國際聯合承攬專案之遴選夥伴之探討....................... 11
2.1.1 工程顧問公司之概述................................................. 11
2.1.2國際聯合承攬定義.................................................... 12
2.1.3國際聯合承攬專案投標概述............................................ 12
2.1.4國際聯合承攬專案風險之研究.......................................... 15
2.1.5國際市場遴選夥伴決策模式之研究...................................... 17
2.2 效用函數理論......................................................... 19
2.2.1效用函數之定義...................................................... 19
2.2.2效用函數之基本假設.................................................. 19
2.2.3 效用函數曲線.......................................................22
2.3修正的期望效用理論.................................................... 23
2.3.1期望效用理論的演進.................................................. 23
2.3.2相依排列期望效用理論（Rank Dependent Expect Utility Theory, RDEU）.. 25
2.3.3免參數法導出效用函數值和機率權重函數值.............................. 25
2.4 多目標展望模式（Multi Criteria Prospect Model－MCPM）................ 30
2.4.1模糊偏好關係（Fuzzy Preference Relations, FPR）.....................32
2.4.2累積展望理論（Cumulative Prospect Theory, CPT）..................... 35
第三章 應用MCPM 建立國際聯合承攬專案之遴選夥伴模式....................... 38
3.1 確立國際聯合承攬專案之遴選夥伴風險影響因子........................... 38
3.1.1 國際市場投標決策風險影響因子探討................................... 38
3.1.2 國際聯合承攬專案風險影響因子探討................................... 42
3.1.3 遴選夥伴風險影響因子探討........................................... 46
3.1.4 確立國際聯合承攬專案之遴選夥伴風險影響因子......................... 49
3.1.4.1 確立國際聯合承攬專案風險影響因子與遴選夥伴風險影響因子之相關性... 49
3.2 顧問公司於國際聯合承攬專案之遴選夥伴投標決策模式之建立............... 51
3.2.1 國家階段........................................................... 52
3.2.1.1 計算國家風險影響因子權重......................................... 52
3.2.1.2 進行風險影響因子評分............................................. 55
3.2.1.3 計算各風險因子重要性程度......................................... 57
3.2.1.4 整體國家階段風險值計算........................................... 58
3.2.2專案遴選夥伴階段.................................................... 60
3.2.2.1 計算國際聯合承攬專案及遴選夥伴風險影響因子權重................... 60
3.2.2.1.1 計算國際聯合承攬專案風險影響因子權重........................... 60
3.2.2.1.2計算遴選夥伴風險影響因子權重.................................... 61
3.2.2.3 計算各潛在夥伴對國際聯合承攬專案之預期成功機率................... 62
3.2.2.4 確立獲利之效用函數曲線........................................... 69
3.2.2.5 確立獲利之機率權重函數曲線....................................... 77
3.2.2.6 計算各潛在夥伴對國際聯合承攬專案之效用值......................... 86
3.2.2.7 確定國際聯合承攬專案中之最佳合作夥伴............................. 88
第四章 案例分析與決策模式驗證............................................ 89
4.1 案例基本資料......................................................... 89
4.1.1 基本資料分析 .......................................................89
4.1.2 國際聯合承攬專案之投標方案......................................... 91
4.2 國家階段............................................................. 92
4.2.1 計算國家階段風險影響因子權重....................................... 92
4.2.2 進行國家階段風險影響因子評分....................................... 95
4.2.3 計算國家階段各風險影響因子重要性程度............................... 97
4.2.4 整體國家階段風險值計算............................................. 99
4.3 專案遴選夥伴階段..................................................... 100
4.3.1計算國際聯合承攬專案及遴選夥伴風險影響因子權重...................... 100
4.3.1.1計算國際聯合承攬專案風險影響因子權重.............................. 100
4.3.1.2計算遴選夥伴風險影響因子權重...................................... 101
4.3.2計算各潛在夥伴對國際聯合承攬專案之預期成功機率...................... 102
4.3.3確立獲利之效用函數曲線.............................................. 110
4.3.4 確立獲利之機率權重函數曲線......................................... 112
4.3.5 計算各潛在夥伴對國際聯合承攬專案之效用值........................... 114
4.3.6確定國際聯合承攬專案中之最佳合作夥伴................................ 115
第五章 結論與建議........................................................ 116
5.1 結論................................................................. 116
5.2 建議................................................................. 117
參考文獻................................................................. 118
<附錄A>.................................................................. A-1
<附錄B>.................................................................. B-1

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