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研究生:李玟玲
研究生(外文):Wen Lin Lee
論文名稱:以區間型二模糊PROMETHEE建立新產品開發之風險評估模式
論文名稱(外文):Risk assessment for new product development model by PROMETHEE of interval type-2 fuzzy
指導教授:陳亭羽陳亭羽引用關係
指導教授(外文):T. Y. Chen
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:長庚大學
系所名稱:工商管理學系
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:企業管理學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2014
畢業學年度:102
論文頁數:63
中文關鍵詞:新產品開發風險評估區間型二模糊數偏好序列結構法區間型二模糊偏好序列結構法
外文關鍵詞:new product developmentrisk assessmentPROMEHTEEinterval type-2 fuzzyPROMETHEE of interval type-2 fuzzy
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目錄
指導教授推薦書
口試委員審定書
誌謝 iii
摘要 iv
Abstract v
目錄 vi
圖目錄 viii
表目錄 ix
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 1
1.3 研究流程 2
1.4 研究限制 2
第二章 文獻探討 4
2.1新產品開發 4
2.2 新產品開發風險 4
2.2.1 風險識別 5
2.2.2 新產品開發風險準則 5
2.3 新產品開發風險之評估模型 11
第三章 研究方法 13
3.1 評選新產品開發之風險準則 13
3.2 區間型二模糊數 16
3.3 語意尺度 18
3.4 區間型二模糊PROMETHEE之發展 18
第四章 應用研究與討論 26
4.1 案例設計說明 26
4.1.1 案例公司概述 26
4.1.2 廚房用智慧型電話方案 27
4.2 問卷設計 27
4.3 區間型二模糊PROMETHEE演算 28
4.4 分析與討論 38
第五章 結果與建議 40
5.1 結論 40
5.2 建議 41
參考文獻 42
附錄 新產品開發風險問卷 47

圖目錄
圖1.1 研究流程圖 3
圖2.1 新產品開發風險識別構成 5
圖3.1 新產品開發風險 13
圖4.1 集成決策下,Λ=1、Λ=2下方案之部分排序 36
圖4.2 集成決策下,Λ=1、Λ=2下之方案完全排序 37

表目錄
表2.1 新產品開發之風險準則體系 9
表2.1 新產品開發之風險準則體系(續) 10
表2.2 新產品開發之風險準則 10
表2.2 新產品開發之風險準則(續) 11
表2.3 新產品開發決策模型 12
表3.1 新產品開發風險準則 15
表3.2 區間型二梯型模糊數語意尺度表 18
表4.1 決策者對於每個方案下之風險準則評估值 28
表4.1 決策者對於每個方案下之風險準則評估值(續) 29
表4.2 風險準則在新產品開發上的重要程度與門檻值 29
表4.3 集成決策下,方案Ai下風險準則xj之高低程度 30
表4.3 集成決策下,方案Ai下風險準則xj之高低程度(續) 31
表4.4 集成決策下,風險準則xj在新產品開發上之重要程度 31
表4.5 集成決策下,方案Ai下風險準則xj之符號距離 32
表4.6 集成決策下,方案Ai下風險準則xj之偏好函數 33
表4.6 集成決策下,方案Ai下風險準則xj之偏好函數(續) 34
表4.7 集成決策下,方案Ai下風險準則xj之偏好指數 34
表4.7 集成決策下,方案Ai下風險準則xj之偏好指數(續) 35
表4.8 集成決策下,方案Ai之外出流、進入流、淨流 37
表4.8 集成決策下,方案Ai之外出流、進入流、淨流(續) 38
表4.9 集成決策下,方案Ai之外出流、進入流、淨流的符號距離 38
表4.10 集成決策下,各個距離參數的部分、完全排序 39

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