臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

基於公開上市公司企業規模多較龐大，且股票又在證券市場公開交易，一
旦發生危機，不僅威脅到眾多的投資者及債權人，甚至易引起市場上之恐
慌。因此，本研究以上市公司製造業為研究對象，探討營業現金流量資訊
的提供，是否有助於協助報表使用者作成正確之投資與授信決策。　　　
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　本論文之研
究期間為民國78年至民國81年。主要之研究方法有因素分析及區別分析。
　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　實證結果顯示：　　　　　　　　
　　　　　　　　　　一、在單變量分析中，營業而來的現金流量對資產
總額之比、營業而來　　的現金流量對負債總額之比及營業而來的現金流
量對股東權益之比　　，三個現金流量變數都可單獨成為一有效之營運績
效衡量指標。二、在多變量分析中，將三個現金流量變數分別加入傳統財
務指標所構建之模型中，經檢定，其區別效果並未優於僅以傳統財務指標
所構建之區別模式。故得知本研究所選取之現金流量變數並不具有邊際預
測效果。

Business operations is closely related to the status quo of the
society. Once a business is in danger, it will cause the whole
society a serious loss especially the listed stock company.
Therefore, the samples of this study is concentrated on the
manufacturing industry which has stocks traded in the Taiwan
Stock Market. The study tried to explain：if CFFO information
is helpful to the users of financial statements to make a
correct judgment about investment and credit. The study
collects financial data from 1989 to 1992. The statistics
methods adopted in the study are Factor Analysis and
Discriminant Analysis. The results of the study show that： (1)
In univariate analysis, any of the three CFFO ratios is an
effective forecasting indicators of performance. (2) In
multivariate analysis, the forecasting ability of synthetic
model is not better than traditional model. In conclusion, the
CFFO ratios of the study don't have marginal forecasting
effectiveness.