臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究以2010至2013年美國職棒大聯盟三十支球隊，團隊年度打擊、投球和守備紀錄，運用資料採礦的技術探討影響球隊績效---晉級季後賽之關鍵因素為目的；另一個目的為針對球員打擊與投球記錄，評估打者、先發投手和後援投手的能力。在球隊績效的部份，透過決策樹分類後，結果顯示，卡方自動交互檢測、分類與迴歸樹兩種演算法較適合分類2010至2013年美國職棒大聯盟之球隊資料，防禦率和攻擊指數對戰同分區球隊之勝率建構模型二作預測效果的比較。經研究結果發現美國職棒大聯盟2010至2013年球季，球隊攻擊指數、防禦率和對戰同分區球隊之勝率，在這四年間是球隊能否晉級季後賽最關鍵的因素。球員能力的部份，將球員分類為打者、先發投手與後援投手，透過集群分析分別將其分群。比較不同分群球員能力之差異，運用因素分析將打擊和投球的記錄簡化為較少的因素並計算其分數，經過加權平均建立2013年各個分群的打者、先發投手與後援投手評分卡。

The records of hitting, pitching and fielding for Major League Baseball (MLB) in 2010-2013 were used in this research. The purpose of this research is to analyze what is the most important factor affecting the team performance---advance to postseason by the technique of data mining. Another purpose in this research is to use the records of player evaluate the ability of players. In the part of team performance, through the decision tree classification, we got the pivotal factors which were Earned Run Average (ERA) and On-base percentage Plus Slugging Percentage (OPS). Then using two factors to construct the logistic regression and Team winning percentage with the same district were considered to construct the other logistic regression. According to the result, how to improve the OPS, suppress competitor’s batter for reducing the earned run and the team winning percentage with the same district were important in 2010-2013 MLB. In addition, the results of cluster analysis indicate the heterogeneity of the player’s ability for the roles of batters, start pitches, and relief pitchers. The scoring systems are built using factor analysis using the data of 2010~2012 year for batters, start pitchers, and relief pitchers, respectively. It is good enough to support the predicted scores for the performance of most players in 2013.

目錄

摘要.............................................................................................i
Abstract.......................................................................................ii
圖目錄........................................................................................vi
表目錄........................................................................................vi

第一章 緒論
1.1 研究背景與動機….......................................................................1
1.2 研究目的……................................................................................2

第二章 文獻探討
2.1 球隊績效之相關文獻..................................................................3
2.2 球員能力之相關文獻..................................................................4

第三章 研究方法
3.1 資料來源......................................................................................6
3.2 研究範圍和限制..........................................................................7
3.3 名詞解釋......................................................................................7
3.3.1 打擊(Hitting) ..................................................................7
3.3.2 投球(Pitching) ................................................................8
3.3.3 守備(Fielding) ................................................................9
3.4 統計方法....................................................................................10
3.4.1集群分析...........................................................................10
3.4.2決策樹...............................................................................11
3.4.3邏輯斯迴歸分析...............................................................15

第四章 球隊績效之結果與討論
4.1 球隊表現之初步資料探勘............................................................17
4.1.1 2010-2013年大聯盟球隊表現之資料探勘...................17
4.1.2 球隊表現與勝率的關聯性分析…….............................26
4.1.3 球隊晉級季後賽之勝率比較.........................................28
4.2球隊晉級季後賽之決策樹模型配適............................................30
4.3邏輯斯迴歸模式的建構.................................................................36
4.4 球隊績效之討論........................................................................38

第五章 球員能力之結果與討論
5.1 球員表現之敘述性統計................................................................40
5.1.1 2010-2012年大聯盟打者表現之敘述統計...................40
5.1.2 2010-2012年大聯盟先發投手表現之敘述統計...........41
5.1.3 2010-2012年大聯盟後援投手表現之敘述統計...........42

5.2 球員能力集群分析….................................................................43
5.2.1 打者的集群分析..............................................................43
5.2.2 投手能力的集群分析......................................................45

5.3 球員能力評分卡分析................................................................48

第六章 結論與後續研究
6.1 結論................................................................................................56
6.2 後續研究........................................................................................58

參考文獻......................................................................................................59

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