臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

過去研究發現分析師盈餘預測偏誤，呈現過度樂觀、過度反應及反應不足三種不同類型，但此等結果難以相互調和。因此，本研究由心理學之經驗法則觀點出發，探討我國分析師與公司管理當局之盈餘預測，究竟屬於何種偏誤類型，並了解控制盈餘水準後，盈餘預測偏誤類型之結論是否造成改變。此外，許多研究發現，公司管理當局發布之盈餘預測存在資訊內涵，並能影響分析師之盈餘預測判斷，故本研究亦想探討，管理當局發布之盈餘預測對分析師預測偏誤之影響，並瞭解不同特性之公司盈餘預測（公司發佈消息之好壞、公司過去預測之準確性），是否會使分析師之盈餘預測偏誤有所差異。本研究根據民國87至91年台灣上市、櫃公司為研究對象，研究結果有四：（1）分析師或是公司管理當局之盈餘預測均呈現過度樂觀之預測偏誤；（2）盈餘水準與過度樂觀之預測偏誤程度存有顯著之負相關；（3）考慮盈餘水準後，在面對好消息時，原所發現之過度樂觀偏誤類型仍然成立；但面對壞消息時則不存在過度樂觀之現象；（4）管理當局發布之盈餘預測，確能降低分析師之盈餘預測偏誤；（5）管理當局發布壞消息之預測能較好消息之預測，更能降低分析師之盈餘預測偏誤，而公司過去盈餘預測準確性之高低，並不會影響分析師盈餘預測之偏誤情形。

Many studies explored analysts’ forecast error type; however, the results are mixed. All of the over optimistic, over-reaction, and under-reaction types were supported. Based on psychology’s heuristic viewpoint, this study explores analysts’ and management’ earnings forecast error type. Then the relationship between the earnings level and forecast error is investigated. In addition, both the management financial forecasts and the analyst earnings forecasts are the important information for investors. The endogenous relationship between these two kinds forecasts implies that analysts might forecast in accordance with managements’ guidance. The another purpose of this study is to explore the influence of management financial forecasts on the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts.Our results, according to the forecasted data from year 1998 to 2002 in Taiwan security market have fore. 1. Both analysts’ and management’ earnings forecast error type support the over optimistic. 2. The relationship between earnings level and earnings forecast error is significantly negative. 3. After controlling the earnings level, the finding of optimistic forecast error still existed in good news company, but not in bad news company. 4. Management financial forecasts can improve the accuracy of analyst earnings forecasts significantly. 5. Bad news management forecast benefits more for the analysts than the good news. However, there is no relationship between the accuracy of management financial forecast in the prior year and that of analyst earnings forecast.

第壹章 導 論 1
第一節 研究動機 1
第二節 研究目的 5
第三節 論文結構 6
第貮章 文獻探討與研究假說 7
第一節 分析師盈餘預測偏誤類型及其與心理學經驗法則之關係 7
一、過度樂觀偏誤與仁慈經驗法則 7
二、過度反應偏誤與代表性經驗法則 9
三、反應不足偏誤與定錨調整經驗法則 11
四、盈餘預測偏誤類型之彙總比較與研究假說之形成 13
第二節 盈餘水準與盈餘預測偏誤之相關文獻 15
第三節 公司管理當局盈餘預測對分析師預測偏誤影響之相關文獻 16
一、管理當局發布盈餘預測動機之相關研究 16
二、管理當局盈餘預測之資訊內涵 17
三、管理當局發布訊息對分析師財務預測影響之相關研究 18
第四節 公司盈餘預測特性對分析師盈餘預測判斷之影響 21
一、公司盈餘預測修正方向與分析師盈餘預測準確性相關文獻 21
二、公司盈餘預測準確性影響分析師盈餘預測準確性相關文獻 23
第參章 研究方法 25
第一節 盈餘預測偏誤類型之研究設計 25
一、變數之操作型定義 25
二、迴歸模型之建立 26
三、樣本選取與資料來源 29
第二節 公司盈餘預測對分析師盈餘預測偏誤影響之研究設計 30
一、變數之操作型定義 30
二、迴歸模型之建立 33
三、樣本選取與資料來源 36
第肆章 研究結果 38
第一節 盈餘預測偏誤類型之研究結果 38
一、敘述統計分析 38
二、研究假說之統計檢定結果 40
三、敏感性分析 44
第二節 公司預測對分析師盈餘預測偏誤影響之研究結果 59
ㄧ、敘述統計分析 59
二、研究假說之統計檢定結果 60
三、敏感性分析 66
第伍章 研究結論、限制與後續研究建議 78
第一節 研究結論 78
第二節 研究限制與後續研究建議 79
參考文獻 81

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