臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近年來空運運量及航班架次與日俱增，飛航安全議題成為大家所關注焦點。飛機起降於機場跑道，跑道安全更顯得重要。跑道安全議題主要分為有跑道入侵(runway incursion)、衝出/偏出跑道(runway excursion)、跑道混淆(runway confusion)，其中尤其衝出/偏出跑道發生機率以及造成危害大。根據我國飛航安全調查委員會2004-2013年十年飛安統計資料顯示國籍民用航空運輸業35架航空器飛航事故中有12架衝出/偏出跑道；在國際統計數字顯示，國際航空運輸協會(International aviation transport association, IATA)統計2010-2014年五年間全球民用航空運輸業415件飛航事故中有90件為衝/偏出跑道及滑行道。跑道安全議題中衝/偏出跑道也列為近年來國際航空組織重要討論議題。衝/偏出跑道事故主要原因多與飛航駕駛員操作以及天氣環境互動有強烈相關性。因此本研究主要探討飛航駕駛員於衝/偏出跑道之人為風險因子，進而降低衝/偏出跑道事故的發生。

本研究以SHELLO模式為基礎，將飛航駕駛員人為風險因子分為六個互動構
面，包括飛航駕駛員核心能力、飛航駕駛員與他人互動、飛航駕駛員與環境互動、飛航駕駛員與組織互動、飛航駕駛員與軟體互動及飛航駕駛員與硬體互動。本研究以國內外相關文獻資料收集方法，進行飛航駕駛員發生衝/偏出跑道風險因子之篩選。首先由國籍航空公司的145位飛航駕駛員針對各個風險因子進行重要度篩選，篩選出SHELLO模式各構面之飛航駕駛員顯著人為風險因子；接著以專家問卷方式，將篩選之顯著人為風險因子請國內飛航專家針對該因子評選相對重要性，藉由層級分析法進行各構面風險因子值的相對重要性排序，並評估各構面風險因子之改善可行性，建構一整合模式，提出改善優先順序之建議，發展出飛航駕駛員於衝/偏出跑道之人為風險因子減少改善方法及策略，以供相關主管機關於預防衝/偏出跑道策略評估之參考。

根據SHELLO模式調查結果，與環境互動構面在全體飛航駕駛員評選中排序為第一，飛航駕駛員們認為最重要風險因子為濕滑跑道；而飛航駕駛員核心能力構面在全體專家排序中排名第一，其中專家們認為最重要的前五項飛航駕駛員於衝/偏出跑道之風險因子分別為「飛航駕駛員之安全態度」、「飛航駕駛員之情境察覺及注意力」、「不追究錯誤重飛政策」、「飛航駕駛員應變能力」及「飛航駕駛員不符合規定作業」，分別落在飛航駕駛員核心能力構面、飛航駕駛員與組織互動構面。

Runway safety is always the top issue around the world because of increases in air traffic volume in recent years. The most fatal accidents associated with runways are called runway excursions. A breakdown analysis of civil aviation accidents worldwide indicates that the occurrence rate of runway excursions is 22%, which represents the largest factor among all categories (IATA, 2015). Runway excursions tend to occur due to human errors especially pilot errors. Identifying human risk factors associated with pilots in runway excursions will effectively reduce the severe threat of fatalities and losses caused by runway excursion accidents and incidents.
The purpose of this study is to examine significant human risk factors in runway excursions. Based on the IATA RERR 2nd program, we developed 70 human risk factors under a SHELLO model of six dimensions including liveware, liveware to liveware, liveware to organization, liveware to software, liveware to environment, and liveware to hardware. The fuzzy-set theory and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) are applied to evaluate the importance of the risk human factors from the perspective of 145 Taiwan pilots, and this study integrates aviation management level expert opinions about relative weighting and improvement-achievability in order to develop four kinds of priority risk management strategies for airline pilots to reduce runway excursions.
This empirical study of experts’ evaluation suggests that the most important dimension is the liveware as pilot’s core ability, and the top ten significant risk factors are safety attitude, situation awareness, no-fault go-around policy, ability to deal with contingency or emergency, and operation deviation. Meanwhile, from the perspective of front-line pilots, the most important risk factor is environment, wet/ containment runways and weather issue, rain/thunderstorm.
This paper contributes to aviation safety by developing a roadmap for the strategies of mitigating runway excursion with the risk factors ranked in order of importance, thereby helping management authorities improve major operational and managerial weaknesses and also reduce the risks related to runway excursions.

Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background 1
1.2 Research Motivation 2
1.3 Research Purpose 3
1.4 Research Framework 4
Chapter 2 Literature Review 5
2.1 Runway Excursion Background and definition 5
2.1.1 International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) 5
2.1.2 Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) 6
2.1.3 EuroControl 6
2.1.4 Boeing 7
2.2 Factors Contributing to Runway Excursion 8
2.3 Aviation Human Factor 12
2.3.1 SHELL Model 13
2.3.2 Swiss Cheese Model 15
2.3.3 Human Factor Analysis and Classification System (HFACS) 17
2.4 IATA Accident Classification System 19
2.5 Summary 25
Chapter 3 Model Construction 26
3.1 SHELLO Model 26
3.2 Selection of Preliminary Risk Factors under SHELLO Dimension 27
3.3 Methodology 33
3.3.1 Fuzzy Method 33
3.3.2 Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) 34
3.3.3 Improvement- Achievability Analysis 37
3.3.3.1 Measurement of Improvement-Achievability 37
Chapter 4 Empirical Analysis 39
4.1 First Stage Questionnaire – Pilot Survey 39
4.1.1 The Top Most Significant Risk Factors in each Dimension 41
4.1.2 Independent-Sample T-Test 46
4.2 The Second Stage - Expert Questionnaire 48
4.2.1 Test of Consistency 48
4.2.3 Overall Pilot Risk Factors Relative Weighting 55
4.2.4 Comparison of Risk Factor Weight Rankings between Airline Pilots and the Aviation Management Level Experts 55
4.3 Risk Factors Improvement-Achievability Analysis 58
4.4 Priority Order to Improve Pilot’s Risk Factors to Runway Excursion 61
4.4.1 Integration of Relative Weighting and Improvement-Achievability 61
4.4.2. Improvement Strategy for Risk Factors for Runway Excursion 65
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Suggestions 68
5.1 Research Conclusions 68
5.2 Research Suggestions 70
5.3 Research Contributions 70
5.4 Future Research Directions 71
Reference ………………………………………………………………………..72
Appendix I : The First Stage Questionnaire for Pilot Survey 78
Appendix II: The Second Stage Questionnaire for Expert Survey 84

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