臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究係針對臺灣的鄉土樹種香杉(Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. var. konishii)後裔檢定林分作育種價預測以及遺傳增益估計，共有18個單親家系。原始區集配置係採「逢機完全區集設計」(randomized complete block design, RCBD)，共有四個東西向緊鄰並排的縱向完全區集，但經由群內相關係數分析得知，區集配置應採二個南北向之橫向區集規劃較為妥當。更改區集配置後之數據結構呈不完全區集設計，且邊界效應嚴重影響邊緣木的橫向生長性狀，故剔除邊緣木後重作分析。
本研究發現2H、27WD之生長不受環境影響，且家系間沒有顯著差異，其他生長性狀6H、25H、25DBH、25DBA、25VOL、GR2-6以及GR6-25在區集間(P=0.0005~0.0229)與家系間(P=0.0163~0.1088)皆有顯著差異。高生長2H、25H有家系與區集間交感效應，而橫向生長25DBH、25DBA以及25VOL幾乎消除交感效應(0%)。
25H具高度個體遺傳率(0.61)，且樹高之遺傳率通常會隨林齡增加而增大，林木的高生長較橫向生長的遺傳率(0.39~0.48)要高。樹高在不同林齡之間存在著高度的遺傳相關性(0.61)，同林齡之樹高與橫向生長也存在著高遺傳相關性(0.59~0.76)。本後裔檢定由於所估計之木材密度缺乏家系變異，因而無法估計木材密度與其他生長性狀之「遺傳相關性」。
以一個單位(i=1)的表型偏差作為選拔差下所估計之遺傳增益有2.29公尺25H、2.34公分之25DBH以及0.08立方米之25VOL。以6H進行早期選拔，可以獲得1.10公尺之25年生樹高，相當於每年可以獲得0.18公尺，較直接選拔25H每年所獲得之0.09公尺之遺傳增益要高。
無論家系視作「固定效應」或是「逢機效應」，各性狀之MEAN與BLUP二育種價之相關係數也相當高(0.9231~0.9572)。在BLUP中，家系7、9、10、12與23，這五個家系在二個不同林齡之樹高皆入選前九名；同時入選25H與25DBH二性狀之前九名家系有7、9、10、11、23以及29家系；若同時考慮入選6H、25H與25DBH三性狀之前九名家系有7、9、10和23號家系；同時落在最後七名之家系有8、21、31及33家系。以雙性狀模式（25H和25DBH）估計25DBH之育種價，前九名之家系可以改良幅度為10.29％∼0.97％，對多性狀選拔為良好之策略。本研究結果對於香杉遺傳選拔的可能發展，提供了足以參考的經驗。

Eighteen open-pollinated (OP) families of a local variety of China fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook. var. konishii) were grown in a field trial to evaluate the magnitude of genetic parameter estimates and ranking of the parental clones, for growth (height, DBH, and diameter at basal area; DBA) and wood density traits up to 27 years. The field-trial layout was randomized complete block design (RCBD) with four adjacent south-north longitudinal blocks. After checking the intra-class correlations it was found that it would be better to divide the 4 east-west blocks into 2 south-north blocks, so that the long axis of the block is parallel to the contour. That made the field design incomplete blocks. It was also found that edge effects seriously influenced the stem diameter growth for the border trees. We therefore also deleted those seriously biased border trees from the data.
Statistical analyses showed second-year height and 27-year wood density were not influenced by environmental impacts, and there were no significant differences among families. Other growth traits (six-year height, 25-year height, 25-year DBH, 25-year DBA, 25-year stem volume, relative growth between second- and six-year heights, and relative growth between six- and 25-year heights) showed significant differences among families and among blocks. Height growth (second-year and 25-year heights) showed significant family by block interactions. Stem diameter growth (25-year DBH, DBA, and Volume) traits had no interactions at all.
Tree height between ages demonstrated substantial genetic correlation (0.61). Tree height and stem diameters of the same age also exhibited substantial genetic correlations (0.59). Twenty-seven-year wood density showed no family variation.
Twenty-five-year height showed high individual-tree heritability. Heritability estimates increased as the trees grew older. Height growth traits in general have higher heritabilities than stem diameter growth.
Using one unit of standard phenotypic deviation as selection differential to estimate genetic gain would result in 2.29m in 25-year height, 2.34cm in 25-year DBH, and 0.08m3 in 25-year stem volume. Using six-year height as an early-selection trait, indirect selection would result in 1.10m gain in 25-year height. This is equivalent to 0.18m per year, which is much higher than a gain of 0.09m direct selection in 25-year height.
No matter whether family effect is taken as “fixed effect” or “random effect”, arithmetical means and BLUP values showed high correlations (0.9231~0.9572), which implies that both are reliable estimates of the breeding values. Using BLUP values to rank families, five families were both selected into the top nine families for tree height at different ages. Using bi-character (25-year height and DBH) to adjust the estimate of breeding values of 25-year DBH is effective. The improvement magnitude of the top nine families is from 10.29% to 0.97%. This method was therefore proven to be a superior strategy of multi-trait selection. Current research results provide a useful reference for genetic selection of China fir in the future.

【目 錄】
目錄 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Ⅰ
圖表目次 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ⅱ
中文摘要 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ⅳ
英文摘要 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Ⅵ
壹、前言 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 1
貳、材料與方法 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 12
一、材料來源 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 12
二、試驗地描述 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 12
三、性狀調查 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 17
四、統計分析方法 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 19
（一）「不均衡」族群結構的處理 ----------------------------------------- 19
（二）區集配置 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 19
（三）邊界效應 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 21
（四）族群結構的同質性 ---------------------------------------------------- 21
（五）單變數變方分析 ------------------------------------------------------- 21
（六）估計變方成分 ---------------------------------------------------------- 22
（七）估計遺傳率 ------------------------------------------------------------- 24
（八）性狀間相關性 ---------------------------------------------------------- 25
（九）估計遺傳增益 ---------------------------------------------------------- 27
（十）育種價預測 ------------------------------------------------------------- 28
參、結果與討論 --------------------------------------------------------------------- 32
一、各性狀之生長表現 ---------------------------------------------------------- 32
二、「不均衡」族群結構 ---------------------------------------------------------- 36
三、哈特萊最大F值檢定法------------------------------------------------------- 37
四、區集之配置 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 38
五、邊界效應 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- 42
六、二大區集試驗設計之分析結果 ------------------------------------------- 43
七、估計變方成分 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 45
八、估計遺傳率 ------------------------------------------------------------------- 48
九、性狀間相關性 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 49
十、估計遺傳增益 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 54
十一、育種價預測 ---------------------------------------------------------------- 57
肆、綜合結論 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 64
伍、引用文獻 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- 69
附錄------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 77
【圖 表 目 次】
圖1. 栽植鬱閉(2m  2m)造成林木間彼此之生長競爭係後裔檢定之用意------------------ 14
圖2. 東勢香杉後裔試驗地之俯視圖，此試驗地之地勢相當陡峭----------------------------- 14
圖3. 東勢八仙山事業區香杉後裔檢定林原始之家系區集配置圖---------------------------- 15
圖4. 改變後之南北向二大區集配置圖------------------------------------------------------------- 16
圖5. 生長椎抽取之木條樣本，以供木材密度之量測-------------------------------------------- 18
圖6. 椎取木條樣本過程中，盡量避開腐朽木材之部位----------------------------------------- 18
表1. 杉木之總生長量---------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 5
表2. 東西向四大區集最後各家系存活的株數---------------------------------------------------- 15
表3. 南北向二大區集經刪除邊緣木後之各家系的株數---------------------------------------- 16
表4. 「韓德森第三型估計法」之變方成分表------------------------------------------------------- 23
表4.2「韓德森第三型估計法」（第四型平方和）之期望均方係數表----------------------- 23
表5. 「韓德森混和模式法」之變方成分表---------------------------------------------------------- 23
表6. 多性狀之共變方分析表------------------------------------------------------------------------- 26
表7. 各性狀之生長表現------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 32
表8. 性狀25H和25DBH平均值之前12名與後12名之個體分布---------------------------- 34
表9. 去邊界效應後各性狀之生長表現------------------------------------------------------------- 35
表10. 東西向四個區集之各區集算術平均數(MEAN)與最小平方平均數(LSM)---------- 36
表11. 性狀25DBH家系之算術平均數與最小平方平均數的相關係數---------------------- 36
表12. 哈特萊最大F值檢定法（未去邊界效應）--------------------------------------------------- 37
表13. 哈特萊最大F值檢定法（去邊界效應後）--------------------------------------------------- 38
表14. 原始四個區集（去邊界效應後）的性狀表現----------------------------------------------- 39
表15. 二大區集（去邊界效應後）的性狀表現----------------------------------------------------- 39
表16. 韓德森第三型估計法之各性狀變方成分表（25列）-------------------------------------- 40
表17. 四個縱向區集做分群之「群內相關係數」-------------------------------------------------- 40
表18. 五個橫向區集做分群之「群內相關係數」-------------------------------------------------- 41
表19. 二種試驗設計（二個橫向區集的RCBD及CRD）之機差均方及相對效率----------- 41
表20. 限制最大概度估計法(REML)之各性狀變方成分表（四個區集）--------------------- 45
表21. 限制最大概度估計法(REML)之各性狀變方成分表（二大區集）--------------------- 46
表22. 韓德森第三型估計法（第四型平方和）之各性狀變方成分表（二大區集）----------- 47
表23. 混合模式之限制最大概度估計(REML)求各性狀變方成分表（二大區集）---------- 48
表24. 三種變方成分估計法所估計各性狀之個體遺傳率與排序----------------------------- 49
表25 . 針對所有個體計算之簡單外表型相關性------------------------------------------------- 50
表26. 「外表型」和「遺傳型」相關係數-------------------------------------------------------------- 52
表27. 「遺傳和環境交感效應」和「機差」之相關係數-------------------------------------------- 53
表28. 在選拔強度（i=1）時，預測的直接選拔效應和間接選拔相關效應--------------------- 54
表29. 在選拔強度（i=1）時，預測之單位時間內直接選拔效應和間接選拔效應----------- 56
表30. 三種估計區集平均值法----------------------------------------------------------------------- 57
表31. 以最佳線性無偏差預測為育種價，入選前九名之家系---------------------------------- 58
表32. 性狀6H、25H和25DBH間BLUP之相關--------------------------------------------------- 59
表33. 以雙性狀模式預測二林齡（6H與25H）之BLUP------------------------------------------ 60
表34. 以單性狀與雙性狀來預測6H之BLUP----------------------------------------------------- 61
表35. 以雙性狀模式預測二林齡（25H與25DBH）之BLUP------------------------------------ 62
表36. 以單性狀與雙性狀來預測25DBH之BLUP----------------------------------------------- 63
附錄1. 東西向四個區集之各家系算術平均數(MEAN)與最小平方平均數(LSM)--------- 77
附錄2. 三種不同數據結構之各性狀變方成分表------------------------------------------------- 78
附錄3. 各性狀在每列及第四區集最後一行之平均值與變方表現---------------------------- 80
附錄4. 二種育種價之估計與預測（二大區集）---------------------------------------------------- 81
附錄5. 各性狀之算術平均值(MEAN)、最小平方平均值(LSM)、最小平方估計值(LSE)以及最佳線性無偏差預測量(BLUP)之相關係數--------------------------------------- 82
附錄6. 「最小平方估計值」(LSE)中固定效應之係數矩陣-------------------------------------- 83

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