臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

　　隨著供應鏈管理朝低成本與全球化兩個方向發展，供應鏈所涵蓋的範圍比起以往更加的複雜，隨著複雜性的增加供應鏈也越發的脆弱，供應鏈中斷的事件更是時有所聞。因此延伸出近年來的緊急供應鏈管理，這個領域尚在發展的階段，因此相關的文獻相較於其他領域來說仍然較少，尤其是針對供應鏈中斷的相關理論更是欠缺，也成了本研究的動機之一。
　　本文研究了基於供應鏈中斷風險下的最適採購策略，這包含了供應商的選擇與訂單的分配決策。首先是供應商數量選擇，單源採購與多源採購各有不同的利弊，如何考量風險的因素，進行適當的評估是本文的重點。本文建立了數量化的模型去研究基於採購成本、中斷風險、中斷影響…等不同因素下的決策方法，利用機率期望值的算法，去評估如何選擇採購方的最適供應商數量。供應商的部分，本文進一步的區分成同質供應商以及異質供應商兩種型態，提供企業在應用本模型時，更貼近自身需求的選擇。並對一些重要參數進行敏感性分析，結果顯示，模型能有效支持企業經理人面臨多個不確定因素時的採購決策。
　　再者我們延伸雙源供應的研究成果，去探討供應商是異質的情況下，如何進行訂單的分配。除了供應商的數量選擇，訂單的分配更會大大的影響期望利潤值。因此企業如何在兩家不同的供應商之間，決定其最適的訂單分配比率，也可以透過本模型達到解答。

誌謝 I
中文摘要 II
英文摘要 III

第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究意義 3
1.3 研究內容與架構 5
1.4 研究貢獻 7
1.5 本章總結 7

第二章 文獻探討 8
2.1 緊急供應鏈管理研究 8
2.2 供應鏈中斷應對策略概論 13
2.3 供應商數量與訂單分配研究 15
2.4 本章總結 17

第三章 同質供應商最適數量選擇 18
3.1 本章研究範圍界定與定性分析 18
3.2 研究方法與研究目的 20
3.3 基本假設 21
3.4 模型建構 23
3.5 數值模擬 26
3.6 敏感性分析 29
3.7 本章總結 33

第四章 異質供應商採購策略與訂單分配決策 34
4.1 本章研究範圍界定與研究目的 34
4.2 基本假設 35
4.3 參數定義與採購決策流程 37
4.4 異質供應商採購策略 40
4.5 訂單分配決策 49
4.6 本章總結 58

第五章 結論與展望 59
5.1 結論 59
5.2 展望 60

參考文獻 61

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