臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近年來國際上各國透過簽訂自由貿易協定以進行區域經濟整合，在區域內消除部分貿易障礙及非貿易障礙，並冀藉以增進會員國間之貿易量或福利。本研究利用1986-2008年國際間雙邊貿易量來探討影響雙邊貿易之決定因素。針對區域經濟體的虛擬變數上，本研究選取北美自由貿易區、歐盟、東南亞自由貿易區及南方共同市場，使用的計量模型則採傳統的跨部門模型（PCS）、雙邊固定效果模型（FE2）、三邊固定效果模型（FE3）及一般化固定效果模型（FEG），實證結果顯示，若以AIC和BIC的判斷準則下，模型FE2最具有解釋力。此外，本研究更進一步討論不同計量模型FE2及FE3的截距項，針對不同估計法的特定效果的影響進行評估。

The objective of this dissertation is to study the effects of regional economic agreements on bilateral trade flows. By using various specifications of gravity-type model, namely the pooled cross section (PCS), two-way fixed effects (FE2), three-way fixed effects (FE3) and generalized fixed effects (FEG) model, the study focuses on five major regional economic agreements, the EU, EURO, NAFTA, AFTA, and MERCOSUR. For the model selection, the study uses the AIC and BIC information criteria, and suggests that model FE2 is preferred. The study further investigates the difference of intercepts estimated from models FE2 and FE3.

中文摘要 i
Abstract ii
Table of Contents iii
List of Tables iv


I. Introduction 1
II. The Literature 3
III. Contemporary World Trade 8
IV. The Empirical Models and Estimation Results 11
4.1 The Empirical Models 11
4.2 The Data 14
4.3 Main Estimation Results 16
4.4 The Results of a Further Study on Country-specific Effects 19
V. The Conclusions 21
References 23
Data Appendix 47

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