臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

過去許多探討家計部門能源消費的研究，常常忽略能源使用設備選擇影響終端能源消費之事實。使得能源需求分析的準確度受到質疑。故本文擬在能源需求分析中加入能源選擇偏誤的探討。另外，鑒於暖氣與熱水乃美國地區耗能大宗之終端能源消費，故本文選取此兩種終端能源來從事分析，相信此研究對節能計劃之實施將頗具參考價值。其中，高齡家庭對參與節能計劃之效率不彰，因而是否應針對不同年齡層之高齡家庭實施不同的節能計劃，乃另一個值得我們深入探討之議題。
本研究使用美國能源部資訊總署於1993年之住宅部門能源消費調查資料來進行分析。首先將高齡家庭細分為三個年齡族群，利用Chow Test探討年齡結構的差異對暖氣與熱水之能源需求是否會造成影響。最後利用Multi-Logit模型探討影響家計部門暖氣與熱水能源系統之選擇偏誤，然後再以最小平方法分析經修正選擇偏誤後之能源需求。
分析結果顯示，在高齡家庭中，年齡結構的不同對暖氣與熱水之能源需求的確存在有顯著的差異性。天然氣與電力暖氣系統之選擇偏誤會影響其對該能源之需求，而電力熱水系統之選擇偏誤亦會影響熱水對電力之需求。
本研究結果，希望藉由更準確之能源需求分析及高齡家庭能源需求之差異分析，提供給決策者於實施需求面管理計劃時之參考依據。

The selection of energy appliances is always ignored in many energy demand models. Which many incur some estimation biases in the econometric analysis. Unlike most of these literature, this thesis uses a two-stage model by considering the above energy appliances selection problem. Moreover, the space-heating and water-heater energy demand analysis is investigated rather than the whole energy demand since they are two main end-use energy consumption in USA. It is believed that the energy conservation program can be implemented well after we capturing these energy uses. While the aged are usually less interested to attend the energy conservation program, thus the energy consumption of the aged is also investigated in this thesis.
The data of 1993 Residential Energy Consumption Survey (RECS) is used in this study. First of all Chow Test is applied to test our hypothesis: the space-heating and water-heater energy demand significant differences by different age structures. Then we used multilogit model to examine the space-heating and water-heater systems selection bias problem. And then we used OLSQ to analyze the energy demand after modifying selection biases.
The analysis shows that selection biases exist in natural gas and electronic demand of space-heating system and in electronic demand of water-heater system. And the significantly different energy demand is found among the three populations of elderly households.
It is hope our study here can provide some evidences for government in implementing the demand side management programs according to our accurate energy demand analysis, and the difference in elderly households energy consumption analysis.

第一章 緒論…………………………………………………............1
第一節 研究動機與目的…………………………………….……..1
第二節 研究方法與流程…………………………………….……..3
第三節 本文架構…………………………………………………...5
第二章 文獻回顧…………………………………………………...7
第一節 計量經濟模型之相關文獻………………………….……..7
第二節 國內外家計部門能源消費相關文獻………………….…15
第三章 理論與實證模型…………………………………………28
第一節 能源選擇的效用最大化模型……………….……………28
第二節 間斷的選擇模型…………………………………….……29
第三節 連續的選擇模型…………………………………….……31
第四節 實證模型的設立…………………………………….……35
第四章 資料來源與暖氣用途能源需求之實證結果………...…..39
第一節 資料來源與變數基本統計量……………………….……39
第二節 高齡家庭之暖氣能源消費差異分析…………………….42
第三節 估計結果與說明……………………………………….…45
第五章 熱水用途能源需求之實證結果…………………………54
第一節 資料來源與變數基本統計量…………………………….54
第二節 高齡家庭之熱水能源消費差異分析…………………….56
第三節 估計結果與說明……………………………………….…59
第六章 結論與建議………………………………………………65
第一節 結論………………………………………………….……65
第二節 本文限制與未來研究建議….……………………………69
參考文獻…………………………………………………………..70

1. 于宗先與王京明等(1994)，〝臺灣地區住宅與商業部門能源消費調查研究，〞 經濟部能源委員會，臺北。
2. 王國雄(1994)，〝近十年國內產業電力生產力及家計部門用電分析，〞經濟景氣測騇月報， Vol. 17， No. 1， pp. 131-136。
3. 呂俊杰(1998)，〝人口老化對長期能源需求之影響，〞淡江大學產業經濟系碩士論文，淡江大學。
4. 余若蓉與朱敬一(1998)，〝台大「惠我良多」？─論各大學畢業生初出校門的表現，〞經濟論文叢刊，Vol. 26， No. 1，pp. 65-89。
5. 梁啟源(1981)，〝臺灣能源需求模型之建立與應用，〞中研院經濟所現代經濟探討叢書，中央研究院，臺北。
6. 梁啟源(1987)，〝臺灣能源需求模型之研究，〞中研院經濟所現代經濟探討叢書，中央研究院，臺北。
7. 陳海曙(1986)，〝家庭能源耗用特性調查結果與分析，〞能源季刊，Vol. 16， No. 1， pp. 21-31。
8. 許志義(1995)，〝美國能源政策之演變及評估，〞能源季刊，Vol. 25， No. 4，pp. 1-18。
9. 曾正權、林茂文(1990)，〝臺灣地區家用天然氣需求分析：轉換函數模式之應用，〞臺灣銀行季刊， Vol. 39， No. 3， pp. 291-309。
10. 曾國雄、高月霞(1989)，〝臺灣地區住宅能源使用與都市發展特性之研究，〞能源季刊， Vol. 19， No. 1， pp. 1-29。
11. 曾正權、林茂文(1987)，〝臺灣地區住宅部門能源消費與選擇模式之研究，〞臺灣銀行季刊， Vol. 38， No. 3， pp. 238-251。
12. 劉秀瓊(1984)，〝美國住宅能源消費調查報告，〞能源季刊，Vol. 14， No. 1， pp. 101-109。
13. 薛立敏(1985)，〝臺灣地區家計部門電力消費之研究-最終用途法之分析及預測，〞經濟部能源委員會，臺北。
14. 羅紀瓊(1989)，〝臺灣地區住宅能源終端需求預測，〞臺灣經濟預測與政策， Vol. 20， No. 1， pp. 59-86。
15. 羅紀瓊(1983)，〝紐約州住宅能源需求模型-最終用途分析，〞經濟論文， Vol. 11， No. 1， pp. 227-252。
12. Asli Demirguc-Kunt and Enrica Detragiache,〝The Determinants of Banking Crises in Developing and Developed Countries〞, IMF staff papers, Vol. 45, No. 1, March 1998, pp. 81-109.
13. Assimakopoulos, V.,〝Residential Energy Demand Modelling in Developing Regions: The Use of Multivariate Statistical Techniques〞, Energy Economics, Vol. 14, No. 1, January 1992, pp. 57-63.
14. Berry, Linda G. and Marilyn A. Brown, 〝Participation of the Elderly in Residential Conservation Programmes,〞 Energy Policy, April 1988, pp. 152-163.
15. Dubin , Jeffrey A. and Daniel L. Mcfadden, 〝An Econometric Analysis of Residential Electric Appliance Holdings and Consumption,〞 Econometrica, Vol. 52, No. 2, March 1984, pp. 345-362.
16. Donnelly, W. A.,〝Residential Electricity Demand Modeling in the Australian Capital Territory: Preliminary Results,〞The Energy Journal,Vol. 5, No. 2, 1984, pp. 119-131.
17. Donatos, George S. and George J. Mergos,〝Residential Demand for Electricity: the Case of Greece,〞Energy Economics, January 1991, pp. 41-47.
18. Hanemann, Michael W.,〝Discrete/Continuous Models of Consumer Demand,〞 Econometrica, Vol. 52, May 1984, pp. 541-561.
Kasanen, Pirkko and T. R. Lakshmanan, 〝Residential Heating Choices of Finnish Households,〞Economic Geography, vol. 65, No. 2, April 1989, pp. 130-145.
19. Kenneth, Train ,〝Qualitative Choice Analysis,〞The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA, 1986.
20. Kenneth, Small A.,〝A Discrete Choice Model for Ordered Alternatives,〞 Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 2, March 1987, pp. 409-424.
21. Lafrance, G. and D. Perron, 〝Energy Demand Impact of Incentive Programmes,〞 Energy Economics, October 1993, pp. 226-231.
22. Lee, L. F., and R. P. Trost , 〝Estimation of Some Limited Dependent Variable Models with Applications to Housing Demand.〞 Journal of Econometrics, 1978, Vol. 8, pp. 357-382.
23. Lee, Ray-Shine and Nirvikar Singh,〝Patterns in Residential Gas and Electricity Consumption: An Econometric Analysis,〞 Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, April 1994, Vol. 12, No. 2, pp. 233-241.
24. McFadden, S. Daniel, 〝Conditional Logit Analysis of Qualitative Choice Behavior,〞 in Zarembka, P., ed., Frontiers in Econometrics, Academic Press, 1973, pp. 105-140.
25. Maddala, G. S.〝Limited-Dependent and Qualitative Variables in Econometrics,〞 Cambridge University Press,1983.
26. Madlener, Reinhard,〝Econometric Analysis of Residential Energy Demand: A Survey,〞 The Journal of Energy Literature, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1996, pp. 3-32.
27. Nesbakken, Runa,〝The Choice of Space Heating System and Energy Consumption in Norwegian Households,〞 Journal 1997,pp. 371-380.
28. Nekrasova, O. A., 〝Anenergy Consumption Forecast for the Soviet Residential and Commercial Sector,〞 Energy Economics, January 1991, pp. 10-18.
29. Poyer, David A. and Martin Willianms, 〝Residential Energy Demand: Additional Empirical Evidence by Minority Household Type〞, Energy Economics, April 1993, pp. 93-99.
30. Stoft, Steven and Richard J. Gilbert, 〝A Review and Analysis of Electric Utility Conservation Incentives,〞 31. Vale-Journal-on-Regulation, Vol. 11, No. 1, 1994, pp. 1-42.
32. Thomas, Bernard Jean, E Arsenault. and E Genest-Laplante, 〝A Total Energy Demand Model of Quebec: Forecasting Troperties 〞, Energy Economics, Vol. 17, No. 2, 1995, pp. 163-171.
33. -and Donald Belanger, 〝Quebec Residential Electricity Demand:a Microeconometric Approach,〞 Canadian Journal of Economics, Vol. 29, No. 1, February 1996, pp. 92-113.
34. Varian, Hall R.,〝Microeconomic Analysis,〞New York W.W. Norton & Company, 1992.
35. Yamasaki, Eiji and Norio Tominaga, "Evolution of an Aging Society and Effect on Residential Energy Demand,〞 Energy Policy, Vol. 25, No. 11, 1997, pp. 903-912.
36. Yu, Ruoh-rong and C.Y. Chu ,〝Does NTU Add More Value to Her Students Than Other Colleges? -Estimating the Performance of College Graduates in Taiwan,〞Taiwan Economic Review, Vol. 26, No. 1, March 1998, pp. 65-89.