臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

美國供應管理協會(Institute for Supply Management, ISM)於1931年起對外發布的商業調查報告，也就是採購經理人指數(Purchasing Managers Index, PMI)的源起。而台灣PMI則是自2012年初由中華經濟研究院進行試編，並於2012年年底正式對外公布。由於PMI被視為GDP的領先指標，且具有即時性、能有效的預測經濟趨勢，所以深受商業投資、決策者的重視。
本研究蒐集10個月的台灣PMI報告資料，應用迴歸分析技術探討台灣PMI及其所組成的五大擴散指數、GDP、六大產業間之關聯性，並建立PMI之景氣預測模式，目的在於能作為決策者在於有效地瞭解、預測、分析產業關係及進行各產業類別對總體經濟的關聯影響性，以掌握產業及市場變化並進而作為研訂有效的策略的參考依據。
根據研究結果顯示台灣PMI與總體經濟指標是亦具有和以往美國PMI研究結果一樣是具有相同的特性和參考價值。並且由台灣PMI所進行產業類別的影響性分析結果更證實「電子暨光電產業」對於台灣總體經濟的現況的重要性亦是與現況相符。

U.S Institute for Supply Management (ISM) in 1931 began publishing business survey report, which is called Purchasing Managers Index (PMI). Taiwan PMI was conducted by the Chung-Hua Instition for Economic Research (CIER) a trial in early 2012, while announced publicly at the end of 2012 officially. PMI is considered as a leading indicator of GDP, and has a real-time, which can effectively predict economic trends, so it is gotten attention from business investment decision-makers.
This study collected Taiwan PMI 10 months report data, applied Regression Analysis Technology of Taiwan PMI and its diffusion index composed of five GDP, the correlation between the six major industries, and establishment of purchasing managers index the climate prediction model. The research of purpose is to help decision-makers to effectively understand, predict, analyze industrial relations and conduct various sectors related to the overall economic impact, in order to capture changes in the industry and research, thus providing an effective strategy as a reference.
The results show that Taiwan''s PMI and the overall economic indicators have PMI and previous findings, such as the United States has the same characteristics and reference value. The industrial sector is affected by PMI analysis results also confirmed the "Electronic & Electro Industries" for the current situation of Taiwan''s overall economic significance and status.

中文摘要 .................................................................................................................................... i
英文摘要 ................................................................................................................................... ii
謝辭 .......................................................................................................................................... iii
目次 .......................................................................................................................................... iv
圖次 ......................................................................................................................................... vii
第一章緒論 .............................................................................................................................. 1
第一節研究背景、動機 .................................................................................................. 1
第二節研究目的 .............................................................................................................. 4
第三節研究範圍與對象 .................................................................................................. 5
第四節研究流程 .............................................................................................................. 7
第二章文獻探討 ...................................................................................................................... 8
第一節採購經理人指數 .................................................................................................. 8
第二節台灣採購經理人指數 .......................................................................................... 9
第三節關於採購經理人指數的研究 ............................................................................ 11
第四節產業分類與定義 ................................................................................................ 13
第三章研究方法 .................................................................................................................... 15
第一節研究架構 ............................................................................................................ 15
第二節研究假設 ............................................................................................................ 16
第三節研究變項操作性定義與衡量 ............................................................................ 19
第四節資料分析方法 .................................................................................................... 24
第四章實證分析與結果 ........................................................................................................ 27
第一節敘述性統計分析 ................................................................................................ 27
第二節信度及效度分析 ................................................................................................ 32
第三節相關分析 ............................................................................................................ 34
第四節假設檢定結果 .................................................................................................... 36
第五章結論與建議 ................................................................................................................ 54
第一節研究結論 ............................................................................................................ 54
第二節研究貢獻 ............................................................................................................ 58
第三節研究限制 ............................................................................................................ 58
第四節後續研究建議 .................................................................................................... 59
參考文獻 ................................................................................................................................. 60

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