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AbstractIN this study﹐a short-term housing market is
constructed based on the model structure of Chicago Area
Transportation / Land Use Analysis System﹐CATLAS in brief.
approach. On housing demand side﹐the probability functions of
housing choice is constructed to estimate the expected housing
demand. On housing supply side﹐a binary logit model on the
choice of occupancy is constructed to estimate the expected
housing supply. Under the consumption of perfect competition﹐
the equilibrium housing price will be determined such that the
quantity of demand equals the quantity of supplied in every
residential zone. In policy analysis﹐a simulation of the
effects on the housing price change due to pseudo policies of
transportation and / or housing changes. The difference of
equilibrium price between before and after policy change is
calculated to depict the change of social welfare.Empirical data
that used in this study is manipulated from these different
sources of Kaohsiung City："the Housing Construction Plan of
Kaohsiung City"﹐"the Research of Transportation Demand of
Kaohsiung Metropolitan Area" and "the Statistic Report of
Housing Information". The CATLAS model is adjusted on the supply
sub-model according to the housing market structure in Kaohsiung
City. It can be examined from empirical data that a zone with
high vacancy rate has housing price more expensive than a zone
with low vacancy rate. This does not consist with the supply
concept of CATLAS model. Hence﹐the supply sub-model is adjusted
by spreading into parts：the housing stock function and the
housing occupancy function.The empirical results shows that the
household living in city tend to move to suburb. The equilibrium
prices in city reduce at a range of 0.29% to 3.29% when the
local government implements a traffic control on automobile and
motorcycle within city area and yield an increasing on commuting
travel time at 10 minutes. Meanwhile﹐the equilibrium prices in
suburb rises at a range of 0.03% to 1.08%. Additionally﹐the
second policy of promoting the bus lane in suburb is proceeded
under previous policy﹐so that the commuting travel time by bus
is reduced at 10 minutes. The equilibrium prices in the city
area reduce at a range of 0.52% to 3.35% while the equilibrium
housing prices in suburb increase at a range of 0.14% and 1.22%.
To simulate the effects of housing policy﹐this study supposes
that the government provides 5,000 more dwelling units in Ch''ien
Chen jurisdiction area. As expected﹐an increase in housing
supply reduces the housing price in market. The average
reduction is at 2.08% with highest value of 15.94% in Ch''ien
Chen jurisdiction area.Key Words : Real Estate Housing Price
Equilibrium of Market Logit Traffic Policy Housing
Policy Kaohsiung City
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