臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

黃有光（2002）提出一個跨期的社會福利函數，其中他以生存率作為折現因子 (discount factor)。他並證明，當不存在率 (nonsurvival rate)為半常數 (semi-constant)時，該跨期福利函數（生存率折現， survial rate discounting）值就會收斂。給定人文主義倫理與個人主義倫理兩個道德判斷之下，本文從跨期福利的期望值出發，提供生存率折現的另一個證明。此外，當人類的絕種機率分配的期望值為有限值的時候，
生存率折現的目標函數值就會收斂。這個條件較之黃有光（2002）所給的更為寬鬆。本文並初步探究生存率折現在永續性 (sustainability)理論上的意涵。

Ng(2002) proposed an intertemporal welfare objective with effective discountingusing the survival rate as the discount factor. He also proved that the value of the objective converges when the nonsurvival risk is semiconstant. However, as I shall show in the thesis, once we are conscious of the possibility of human extinction, we may have an objective as the expectation of a social welfare function, whatever defined.
And Ng's criterion is in fact an `expected Benthamite intertemporal social welfare function'.Moreover, the value of the objective converges if the expected date of extinction is
finite. The implications of the survival rate discounting are further explored. Chichilnisky(1996)'s axioms of nondictatorship is not consistent with the survival rate
discounting. Heal(1998)'s logarithmic discounting and Green Golden Rule is probably not justifiable. For the issue of how to choose an intertemporal welfare criterion and how to choose a
discount rate, the answers depends on the estimation of the extinction probability.

1 Introduction
1.1 Extinction probability
1.Intertemporal welfare criteria: a survey
1.3 The reformulation and implications of the survival rate discounting
2 Expected ntertemporal welfare and the survival rate discounting
2.1 Expected intertemporal welfare
2.2 The equivalence
2.3 Finite expected date of extinction
2.4 Infinite expected date of extinction
3 Implications of the survival rate discounting
3.1 Ethical judgments or empirical evidence:A discussion on Chichilnisky's criterion
3.2 On the issue of choosing a discount rate
3.3 Exogenous probability and the Green Golden Rule
4 Concluson

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