臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

航運是具有週期循環特性的全球性產業，其船噸供給與貨源需求為左右航運市場與運價的主要影響因素，因此，全球金融危機勢必對航運產業的供需結構產生衝擊，進而影響航運市場之發展。本研究主要探討全球金融危機對散裝航運市場船貨供需結構之影響，並討論航運市場循環自我調整機制在供需結構上之表現。除了回顧相關文獻，本研究主要根據航運市場循環理論，採用歷史結構分析法，探討1990-2012年間散裝航運市場船噸供給與貨源需求之變化。本研究之發現如下：
1. 全球散裝船隊有大型化之趨勢，近年來以海岬型船載重噸成長最快，海岬型船噸的增加使散裝船噸供給過剩是目前市場循環處於波谷期之主因，未來海岬型船噸的改變將決定散裝航運景氣循環的發展。
2. 輕便型船的拆解船噸與新造船噸變化最為頻繁，於全球金融危機時期有顯著的改變，且輕便型船在拆解船噸與新造船噸位的變化有市場循環波動之特性，其拆解船市場之波峰為上一循環新造船噸波峰的發展結果。
3. 散裝航運五大乾散貨與次要乾散貨的貨源需求成長相當穩定，沒有明顯的循環波動現象，若需自貨源需求判斷散裝航運市場趨勢，當以次要乾散貨中的鋼鐵為優先，煤炭次之。
4. 市場循環的波峰與波谷皆發生在海岬型與輕便型船噸曲線交會之時間，即海岬型的拆解船噸與新造船噸曲線與輕便型的拆解船噸與新造船噸曲線交會點。也是市場自我調整，重新進入循環成長期之關鍵。
5. 長期的貨源需求變化與船噸供給的趨勢有明顯的差異，散裝貨源需求的改變不易刺激航運循環之產生，亦不易受航運循環之刺激，是全球金融危機引發船噸供給之循環，進而衍生散裝航運景氣循環。
以上研究結果可供散裝航運公司對未來航運市場營運策略之參考。

謝誌 I
摘要 II
Abstract III
目次 IV
圖次 VI
表次 VII

第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究問題與目的 3
1.3 研究內容與方法 4
1.4 研究限制與範圍 5
1.5 研究架構 6
1.6 研究流程 7

第二章 文獻回顧與評析 8
2.1 航運市場景氣循環 8
2.2 全球金融危機與航運市場景氣循環 10
2.3 研究方法 15
2.4 綜合評析 17

第三章 散裝航運市場現況分析 18
3.1 散裝船噸供給 18
3.2 散裝貨源需求 21
3.3 散裝航運市場與金融危機分析 23
3.4 綜合評析 27

第四章 散裝航運船噸供給分析
4.1 全球散裝船噸供給規模 28
4.2 全球散裝船隊供給船型比例 31
4.3 全球散裝船隊新造船與拆解船結構 33
4.3.1 全球散裝船隊新造船結構 36
4.3.2 全球散裝船隊拆解船結構 39
4.4 本章小節 41
第五章 散裝航運貨源需求分析 43
5.1 全球散裝航運貨源需求 43
5.2 全球鐵礦砂貨源需求分析 46
5.3 全球煤炭貨源需求分析 50
5.4 次要乾散貨貨源需求分析 53
5.5 本章小節 58

第六章 散裝航運船貨供需綜合比較 59

第七章 結論與建議 61
7.1 結論 61
7.2 建議 62

參考文獻 63

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