臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

由於行動通信服務提供了便利且隨時隨地的電信服務，故在過去的十數年間一直享有高度的成長。但近年隨著服務的高度普及與業者間的競爭，許多地區的行動通信網路營運者面臨了營收成長趨緩的挑戰。在這樣的態勢下，各業者為爭取客戶，競爭的行銷手法更加白熱化，尤其企業客戶市場，因一個專案成功所帶進或失敗所流失的客戶，動則數百人至數千人，對客戶數成長影響很大，且企業客戶大多屬高用量用戶，對營收貢獻度大，故是行動業者使出渾身解數想要爭取到的目標市場。
本研究藉由資料探勘(Data mining)的方法，探討企業行動(Mobile)化或無線(Wireless)化中，最具代表性的行動企業服務 - 行動群組電話服務(Mobile Virtual Private Network, MVPN)之群組流失因素，本研究按企業客戶總營收為基礎，踢除高營收、忠誠度高之群組後，將風險群組再劃分為大客戶與中小企業客戶，計算各區隔內之傷害估計量(Hazard Estimator)與生存函數(Survival Function)，並探討各區隔內群組在帳單話務、使用量、用戶資料與其他等因素與群組流失是否關係顯著，俾提出建議供國內業者擬訂客戶流失因應與創造客戶價值(即保留客戶)策略之參考。

As mobile communication technology renders convenient and ubiquitous telecom services, the mobile telecom industry has enjoyed tremendous growth over the last decades. However, with the high penetration rate of mobile phone users and keen competition among mobile service providers in recent years, the mobile network operators in many areas have faced challenges of lagging growth on revenue. Under such circumstance, to win more customers, the service providers applied versatile marketing strategies and skills, which made the competition even fiercer, especially in the corporate segment of business customers. As the success or failure of a mobile service marketing project i.e. MVPN service, targeted on business customers, can sometimes bring in or lose hundreds or thousands of mobile numbers, which makes great impact on service providers on the aspect of customer growth. Besides, most of the business customers are high revenue customers who may be targeted by competitors or be fickle buyers in themselves.
This paper, based on the analysis of data mining, is to explore the factor of group churning behavior occurring in MVPN service (abbreviated from Mobile Virtual Private Network), the most representative service in mobilization of the business customer segment. This paper divided the whole customers’ usage data of C company into two segments. C company is currently with the most MVPN customers in Taiwan. The two segments at risk of churning, having been excluded the groups with highest revenues and long tenures, are big business customers group and medium and small business customers group respectively. Based on the usage database of the two segments for 1 year, this paper showed the results of hazard estimator and survival function as well as explored whether there were conspicuous relationship existed between group churning and several representative variables on billing, usage, subscription, and other factors. This paper produced some important outcomes which hopefully can be of reference to mobile service providers in forming strategies of customer retention and creating customer value.

一、 緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 4
1.2研究目的 8
1.3研究範圍與對象 8
1.4 研究限制 9
二、 文獻探討 11
2.1 行動電話產業演進與現況 11
2.1.1. 第一代行動通信（1Ｇ）與第二代行動通信（2G）系統 12
2.1.2. 第2.5代行動通信系統 13
2.1.3. 第三代行動通信系統 14
2.2 國內行動通信企業應用服務市場概況 17
2.2.1 企業M化 17
2.2.2. 行動通信企業客戶服務 19
2.2.2.1 Mobile VPN（行動群組電話，簡稱MVPN） 20
2.2.2.2 Mobile Office（或稱行動辦公室） 25
2.2.2.3 企業簡訊 27
2.3 顧客流失之相關實證研究 30
2.3.1 顧客流失的定義 30
2.3.2 顧客流失的性質與原因分類 31
2.3.2.1 顧客流失之不可避免性 31
2.3.2.2 電信業顧客流失原因之分類 33
2.3.3 顧客流失的相關研究與理論 36
三、 研究方法 48
3.1 操作架構 48
3.2. 資料分析變數描述 49
3.3 研究假設 52
3.4 行動群組電話服務(MVPN)用戶使用資料 52
3.4.1 有效樣本數 53
3.5 資料分析方法 53
四、 資料分析 55
4.1 MVPN流失與未流失用戶差異分析 55
4.1.1大客戶群組之羅吉斯分析檢定 55
4.1.2大客戶群組之t-test檢定 56
4.1.3 中小客戶群組之t-test檢定 60
4.1.4 檢定結果分析 64
4.2 區別函數檢定分析(Discriminate Analysis) 66
4.2.1 大企業客戶MVPN群組之區別函數分析 67
4.2.2 中小企業客戶MVPN群組之區別函數分析 68
4.2.3區別函數檢定結果分析 70
五、結論與建議 72
5.1 研究結論 72
5.2建議 76
參考文獻 79

中文部分
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