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研究生:塗文吟
研究生(外文):TU,WEN YIN
論文名稱:市場情緒對波動度的影響-以台灣50指數成份股為例
論文名稱(外文):The Impact of Market Sentiment on Stock Price Volatility:Evidence from TSEC Taiwan 50 Index Constituents
指導教授:王致怡
指導教授(外文):Eliza Wang
學位類別:碩士
校院名稱:國立臺北商業技術學院
系所名稱:財務金融研究所
學門:商業及管理學門
學類:財務金融學類
論文種類:學術論文
論文出版年:2011
畢業學年度:99
語文別:中文
論文頁數:85
中文關鍵詞:投資人情緒股價報酬波動度
外文關鍵詞:Investor Sentiment indexStock returnsVolatility
相關次數:
  • 被引用被引用:3
  • 點閱點閱:650
  • 評分評分:
  • 下載下載:0
  • 收藏至我的研究室書目清單書目收藏:2
本文以台灣50指數成份股為樣本,探討投資人情緒對波動度之衝擊。本文以市場週轉率、三大法人買賣超比、散戶買賣比率做為市場情緒指標,檢定投資者的情緒因子是否能解釋市場波動度。本研究並將情緒指標分為預期及非預期部分,以釐清影響股市波動性的真正因素。除此,本研究檢驗不對稱波動度效應的衝擊以及機構投資人情緒指標和波動度的關係是否因報酬上升或下降而有不同。本研究並進一步探討投資人的從眾行為及回饋策略是否會因不同投資人結構而異。
實證發現在機構法人中,只有外資屬於資訊交易者,外資不管上漲日或下跌日買入股票均有穩定市場的作用,但賣單則否。外資非預期交易對波動度的衝擊較預期交易來得顯著。相反地,投信與自營商則不具穩定股市的效果:投信賣單對波動度的正向衝擊主要來自於預期交易;而自營商非預期買單及賣單均會導致波動度提高,顯示自營商可能是雜訊交易者。至於散戶,其預期買單會對波動度產生負向衝擊,散戶在上漲日買入股票,或在下跌日賣出股票則具有顯著降低市場波動度的作用。整體而言,本研究發現機構投資人在下跌日賣出股票將提升市場波動度,顯示機構投資人可能會因流動性因素及非資訊考量而賣出股票。
除此,本研究發現台灣證券市場存在波動度不對稱效果。在納入未預期報酬的衝擊後,投資情緒指標與波動度的關係並未有所不同。機構投資人在台灣證券市場具有從眾行為,而散戶不具有從眾行為。機構投資人只有投信具有正向回饋交易,外資及自營商則具反向回饋交易。此外,不論是機構投資人還是散戶皆具有串流效應。最後,本文根據上述研究發現提出實證意涵, 並對學術界及實務界提出建議,並作為未來研究的參考。

This paper examines the impact of investor sentiment on stock price volatility by using the sample of the Taiwan 50 Index constituents. Different measures are used as proxies of market sentiment, including investors’ buys, sells and buy-sell imbalances. Furthermore, this paper investigates whether unexpected institutional buys play a more important role in stabilizing stock prices and examines whether price volatiliy realtes to investors’ buys and sells differently on high and low return days.

The empirical result shows that among three-type institutional investors, only foreign investors are informed in the retail investor dominated emerging Taiwan stock market. In addition, foreign investors’ buy orders convey more information than do their sell orders. Conversely, other institutional investors are driven more by liquidity need and noninfomrational consideration. Most noticeably of all, retail investors’ trading tends to be negatively associated with stock price volatility, indicating that retail investors may be informed.

This study also demonstrated that the Taiwan stock market exists the volatility asymmetry effect and that institutional investors herd in their contemporaneous but do not systematically engage in positive-feedback trading. On the other hand, retail investors do not show herding behavior and do not engage in positive feedback trading and/or negative feedback trading. We also find all investors have cascading effects. This paper provides further insight in empirical studies.

中文摘要 II
Abstract III
目 次 IV
表 次 VI
圖 次 VII
第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 1
第二節 研究目的 3
第三節 研究架構 4
第二章 台灣證券市場之介紹 6
第一節 台灣證券市場現況 6
第二節 台灣股市投資人類別的交易比重 8
第三節 機構投資人之介紹 9
一、外國機構投資人 9
二、本國機構投資人 12
第四節 台灣50指數成份股介紹 13
第三章 文獻探討 16
第一節 波動度衡量 16
第二節 市場情緒指標 18
第三節 波動度與交易量的關係 19
第四節 波動度與投資人持股的關係 20
一、理論模型 20
二、波動度與機構投資人持股關係的實證 22
三、波動度與散戶投資人持股關係的實證 26
第五節 當期波動度與報酬反向與不對稱關係的實證 29
第四章 研究設計 31
第一節 研究來源 31
第二節 變數操作性定義 32
一、報酬率 32
二、波動度 32
三、機構投資人情緒指標 32
四、散戶投資人情緒指標 33
五、週轉率 34
第三節 單根檢定 35
第四節 模型設定與選取 36
一、SUR加權之GLS估計與最小平方法估計式之選取 36
二、固定效果模型與最小平方法估計式之選取 36
三、隨機效果模型與最小平方法估計式之選取 37
四、Hausman檢定 37
第五節 研究問題與假設 39
一、當期波動度與投資人情緒指標之關聯 39
二、當期波動度與預期/非預期投資人情緒指標之關聯 40
三、當期波動度與報酬之關聯 40
四、波動度與投資人情緒指標與股市多空之關聯 40
五、波動度、從眾效應、回饋交易與串流效應之關聯性 41
第六節 研究方法與模型定義 42
一、檢驗當期波動度與投資人情緒指標之關聯 42
二、檢驗當期波動度與預期/非預期投資人情緒指標之關聯 43
三、檢驗當期波動度與報酬之關聯 44
四、檢驗波動度與投資人情緒指標與股市多空之關聯 45
五、檢驗投資人從眾效應、回饋交易與串流效應 48
第五章 實證分析與結果 50
第一節 敍述統計及單根檢定 50
第二節 相關分析 53
第三節 當期波動度與投資人情緒指標關聯之實證結果 55
第四節 當期波動度與預期/非預期投資人情緒指標之關聯實證結果 58
第五節 當期波動度與報酬關聯之實證結果 60
第六節 波動度與投資人情緒指標與股市多空關聯之實證結果 63
第七節 從眾效應、回饋交易與串流效應之實證結果 67
第六章 研究結論與建議 73
第一節 研究結論 73
第二節 實證意涵 75
第三節 研究貢獻 75
第四節 研究限制 76
參考文獻 77

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