臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

廠商發生財務危機對供應鏈合作夥伴股價異常報酬的影響是一項重要的議題。而供應鏈財務危機也可能導致與合作夥伴供應鏈中斷的問題。以往的研究主要探討財務危機公司的預測和供應鏈風險的管理，但比較少探討在公司發生財務危機，對於供應鏈上下游廠商股價異常報酬的影響。本研究採用事件研究法來作為實證。選擇在1971年至2015年宣布有財務危機的公司作為研究樣本，篩選結果為66家。接下來排除不容易獲得資料的退市公司或破產的公司，另外排除沒有合作夥伴資料的公司樣本，最後篩選出財務危機公司樣本為30家。最後再從這30家公司找出上下游往來廠商，供應或銷貨佔財務危機公司10%以上的夥伴樣本共為37家。在這項研究中，定義和比較事件窗口，並分析公司發生財務危機是否對合作夥伴的股票價格有異常報酬之影響。結果表明財務危機公司合作廠商的累積異常報酬影響確實存在，公司發生財務危機將影響合作夥伴的股票價格。因此，對交易往來之廠商而言可以藉此觀察事先防範，及早採取應變措施，以免公司發生破產、倒閉，因而遭受重大的損失。

It is a particularly important topic that the firms occurs the financial distress and impact on partner's abnormal stock return in supply chains. Supply chain financial distress also can raise the supply chain disruptions with supply chain partners. Prior researches has explored the prediction of financial distress firms and the management of supply risk, but less discussed in the financial distress firms and impact on abnormal stock return between upstream and downstream partners in supply chains. This study used the event study for empirical. In this study, analyze data collected from companies that were poor performance during the period from 1971 to 2015. A total of 66 firms which have financial distress. Exclude the delisted firms that is not easily-obtained, and there is no partner information's financial distress firms, the sample size is 30 companies. Filter out the samples of financial distress firm partners, these partner companies accounted for more than 10% of financial distress firm total purchase and sales, the sample size is 37 companies. In this study, defining and compare the event window, and analyze the financial distress firms' stock price whether impact on partners. The cooperative manufacturer occur financial distress in supply chains cumulative abnormal returns, this study show the figure evidence that such effects indeed exist. The results show that the firms occur the financial distress will affect the partner's stock price. Thus, the partners in supply chains can also take pre-emptive observation and take contingency measures to avoid bankruptcy and liquidation.

摘要....................................................i
Abstract...............................................ii
誌謝...................................................iii
Contents...............................................iv
List of Tables..........................................v
List of Figures........................................vi
1. Introduction........................................1
2. Literature Review...................................3
2.1 Supply chain financial distress.....................3
2.2 Basics of an event study............................4
2.2.1 Definition of timeline in an event study..........4
2.2.2 Event Study Methodology...........................6
2.2.3 Stock Price Forecasting Model.....................8
3. Research Design....................................11
3.1 The prediction model of abnormal return............11
3.2 Sample collection and pre-processing...............13
4. Results............................................14
4.1 Data...............................................14
4.2 Compare of event windows...........................16
4.3 The analysis for event windows.....................17
5. Discussion.........................................18
6. Conclusion.........................................19
6.1 Contribution.......................................19
6.2 Limitations........................................19
6.3 Direction of future research.......................19
References.............................................21

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