臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

　　本文以利用Granger線性因果關係與Hiemstra and Jones (1994)所提出的非線性因果關係檢定來驗證14個新興市場國家與19個工業化國家的資本移動與經常帳的關連性是否不同。Granger因果關係實證顯示，在工業化國家中，澳大利亞、奧地利、加拿大、丹麥、芬蘭、法國、愛爾蘭、義大利、日本、葡萄牙、西班牙、瑞典、比利時、荷蘭、英國與新興市場的哥倫比亞、智利、印尼及台灣等國家皆顯示出其影響方向為經常帳影響金融帳；而金融帳影響經常帳的國家則有紐西蘭、比利時、荷蘭、英國、阿根廷、巴西、墨西哥、南非、南韓、泰國、土耳其、智利、印尼及台灣。在非線性因果關係檢定結果上，就工業化國家而言，經常帳影響金融帳的國家則有加拿大、愛爾蘭、英國、葡萄牙及瑞典，金融帳影響經常帳的國家則有法國、愛爾蘭、義大利、日本、葡萄牙和瑞典。在新興市場國家上，經常帳影響金融帳的國家有阿根廷、巴西、智利、哥倫比亞、約旦、墨西哥及泰國，金融帳影響經常帳的國家則有阿根廷、巴西、智利、哥倫比亞、印尼、約旦、墨西哥、南非、泰國及土耳其。由線性與非線性的因果關係檢定結果顯示，大部份的工業化國家都呈現經常帳影響金融帳的因果關係；然而，對於新興市場國家而言，其關連性大多為金融帳影響到經常帳的，這個實證結果與經濟理論的推論一致。

　　In this paper, we utilize the Granger linear causality test and Hiemstra and Jones (1994) nonlinear causality test to examine the relationship between foreign capital inflows and current account in a set of industrial and emerging markets economy. The Granger causality results for Australia, Austria, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Colombia, Chile, Indonesia, and Taiwan show current account cause capital inflow while for New Zealand, Belgium, Netherlands, United Kingdom, Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Thailand, Turkey, Chile, Indonesia, and Taiwan indicate capital inflow affect current account. The nonlinear causality results for Canada, Ireland, United Kingdom, Portugal, Sweden, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Jordan, Mexico, and Thailand show current account cause capital inflow while for France, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Portugal, Sweden, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Indonesia, Jordan, Mexico, South Africa, Thailand, and Turkey display capital inflow affect current account. From the linear and nonlinear causality results, the most of industrial countries display current account cause capital inflow and emerging market economy show foreign capital inflow cause current account. These empirical results are consistent with the theory of economics.

第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究架構與流程 3
　
第二章 文獻回顧 4
　
第三章 理論與實證模型 8
3.1 經濟理論模型 8
3.1.1 經常帳的跨期模型 10
3.1.2 國家投資組合-國際間的財富經營多樣化 10
3.1.3 總結 11
3.2 計量實證模型 12
3.2.1 單根檢定 12
3.2.2 Granger線性因果關係檢定 14
3.2.3 Hiemstra-Jones非線性因果關係檢定 17
　
第四章 實證結果與分析 21
4.1 資料來源及變數選取 21
4.2 敘述統計量 22
4.3 單根檢定結果 24
4.4 線性因果關係分析 27
4.4.1 經常帳與金融帳之因果關係結果 27
4.4.2 經常帳與拆解之金融帳因果關係結果 29
4.5 非線性因果關係檢定結果 35
4.5.1 BDS檢定結果 35
4.6 非線性因果關係分析 38
4.6.1 經常帳與金融帳之因果關係結果 40
　
第五章 結論與建議 43
　
參考文獻 45

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