臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

　　本文的目的是要運用我國對紐西蘭進出口貿易資料進行統計分析，探討臺灣對紐西蘭在臺紐ANZTEC生效後臺灣產業影響分析及我國與他國簽訂貨品自由貿易政策建議。

　　本文進出口數據資料來源為Global Trade Atlas國際貿易統計數據軟體資料庫，資料選取期間為臺紐ANZTEC正式生效日（2013年12月1日）前自2008年1月起至生效後至2015年2月止，以月分為單位，即以2008年至2015年2月共86期臺灣對紐西蘭進出口資料，將各貨品(HS code)依照不同產業做分類，以配對t檢定、時間序列法等統計方法進行分析。

　　實證結果顯示，臺紐ANZTEC生效後「電影、影片及電視節目製作、聲音錄製及音樂出版業」是有潛力但無獲利能力產業，「基本金屬製造業」受益效果表現良好，「其他製造業」出口額有顯著成長但正從紐西蘭進口市場比例中漸漸萎縮，「金屬製品製造業（機械設備除外）」、「食品製造業」、「家具製造業」是我對紐西蘭貿易有潛力的出口產業。

With the analysis of the import and export trade data between Taiwan and New Zealand, the present study aims to discuss the effects on the industry and the policies on its trade diversion effect after ANZTEC worked out on Dec., 1st, 2013.

The data resource of the present study is from the Global Trade Atlas, an online trade data system of the world’s merchandise trade statistics. The period of the data selected for the analysis is from Jan., 2008 to Feb., 2015, total 86 months. The data, classified with HS Code, was analyzed via T-Test, Time Series Forecasting, and other methods.

The results showed that after ANZTEC worked out, the film, TV, and music industry were potential but not profitable, the steel industry was greatly beneficial, and finally, the export of other industries such as generally increased but their import of NZ decreased. To conclude, metal product manufacturing (excluding mechanic equipment), food processing industry, and furniture manufacturing were the potential export industries from Taiwan to New Zealand.

摘　　要 I
ABSTRACT II
目錄 III
圖目錄 V
表目錄 VI
第一章 背景說明 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究目的 4
1.3 研究方法與內容概要 6
第二章 文獻回顧 8
2.1 區域貿易主義 8
2.2 區域貿易效果及評估方法 10
2.3 事後經濟評估個案探討 12
第三章 研究設計 14
3.1 研究資料 14
3.2 研究方法 17
3.2.1 同期比法 18
3.2.2 需求比法 19
3.2.3 時間序列模型 20
第四章 實證結果 25
4.1 同期比法 25
4.2 需求比法 29
4.3 時間序列模型 33
第五章 結論與後續研究 41
5.1 結論與政策論述 41
5.2 後續研究方向 43
參考文獻 44
數據資料來源與各官方網站 47

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