臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

地震災害造成建物受損，對產業而言可能無法正常營運，並可能因產業鏈中斷使上下游產業生產活動受到干擾，此類經濟影響可用Leontief所發展的產業關聯分析來評估。此類經濟影響以往研究多從水電等維生管線以及交通運輸中斷來探討，而本研究以地震造成建物損壞情形來探討經濟影響為其特色。本研究依2004年加強台北縣市防救災作業能力之研究計畫指出具高度危害潛勢之地震作為本研究模擬情境，為回歸期475年的新竹新城斷層地震（規模7.5）及宜蘭南澳地震（規模7.9），並由國家地震工程研究中心所開發的地震評估系統－台灣地震損失評估系統(TELES)來模擬損害情形。經濟影響方面，本研究參照林幸君、高慈敏(2008)所推估的區域投入產出表作為分析台灣區域經濟的分析工具。
模擬結果發現此兩情境會有驚人的經濟損失，使得經濟成長衰退及失業問題，尤其北部地區製造業及農林漁產之波及效果最大，若能對這兩產業以及其他服務、銷售倉儲作耐震補強等防災工作，可有效降低損害之影響程度。新城情境損害之影響程度是大於南澳情境，顯示產業損害是有地區性差異，然而在重建需求上並無明顯不同。本研究應用防災方面，政府可依其模擬結果及產業受損之脆弱度擬定耐震補強優先順序，才可在最少預算下而能保障人民生命財產安全、減少產業損害以及波及影響程度，以達耐震補強的最大效益，將傷害降到最低。

The direct damages caused by earthquake, such as impaired buildings, may interfere with normal business operation, and disrupted industrial chain may impact interindustry demand and supply. Such economic impacts can be evaluated by the input-output analysis which Leontief developed. Most studies evaluate the economic impact due to lifeline and transport interrupt. However we evaluate the impacts on firms’ revenue due to impaired buildings. Two scenario earthquakes with a return period of 475 years, Hsinchu Hsincheng earthquake (magnitude 7.5 ML and 10 km in depth) and the Yilan Nan’ao earthquake (magnitude 7.9 ML and 7 km in depth) are simulated by Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES). The regional input-output table (IO) developed by Lin and Kao (2008) is used to analyze regional economic impact.
The results show that two scenario earthquakes would cause serious economic losses, recession and unemployment. Particularly the manufacturing and farming sectors in the northern region have the huge repercussion. If we could take actions like seismic capability evaluation and retrofitting, we can effectively reduce the impact damage. The impact of the Hsincheng scenario is greater than that of Nan’ao scenario. Seismic impacts on industries have regional differences, but impacts on reconstruction demand have no significant difference.

第一章 緒論 1
第一節 研究背景及動機 1
第二節 研究目的 2
第三節 研究方法與流程 3
第二章 文獻回顧 6
第一節 界定損失定義 6
一、產業鏈中斷影響 7
二、水、電、交通等公共設施中斷造成的影響 7
第二節 地震之經濟損失評估文獻探討 9
第三節 經濟影響評估方法介紹及比較 11
一、投入產出分析發展沿革 11
二、台灣投入產出分析發展沿革 12
三、投入產出分析缺失 13
四、IO及CGE兩者差異比較及特色 14
第四節 TELES介紹 16
第三章 投入產出分析理論探討 20
第一節 投入產出分析之意義及基本假設 20
一、投入產出分析之意義及目的 20
二、產業關聯分析之基本假設 21
第二節 產業關聯表架構 22
一、基礎架構 22
二、需求面投入產出模型推導 25
三、供給面投入產出模型推導 27
第三節、多區域投入產出模型架構 28
一、需求面投入產出模型推導 28
二、供給面投入產出模型推導 31
第四節、產業關聯效果與乘數效果 32
一、向前關聯效果與感應度 33
二、向後關聯效果與敏感度 33
三、乘數效果 35
第四章 台灣區域投入產出模型之建構及資料處理 37
第一節 產業關聯部門調整及模型建構 37
一、供給面產業部門調整 37
二、需求面產業部門調整 40
三、區域投入產出模型建構 42
第二節 供給面之樓地板損害面積作為產業損失之貨幣化 43
一、取得單位面積產值 44
二、單位面積產值依損害情形調整 45
第三節 需求面之樓地板損害面積作為重建之貨幣化 48
第五章 經濟影響分析 51
第一節 產業關聯效果分析 51
第二節 地震情境模擬說明 53
第三節 建物產值損失及重建需求 56
第四節 建物產值損失之經濟影響分析 58
一、產出效果 58
二、所得減損效果 66
三、就業減損效果 68
第五節 建物重建之經濟影響分析 73
一、產出效果 73
二、所得增益效果 77
三、就業增益效果 78
第六節 本章小結 81
第六章 結論與建議 84
第一節 結論 84
第二節 後續研究建議 85
參考文獻87

1.王塗發，1986。投入產出分析及其應用—台灣地區實證研究，台灣銀行季刊，37，1，186-218。
2.王塗發、何俐禎，1994。區域投入係數非普查推估法之比較研究，台灣經濟學會年會論文集1994：83-122。
3.台灣大學綜合災害研究中心與台北市政府，2004。加強台北縣市防救災作業能力-台北市政府與台灣大學合作推動防救災計畫，國家
災害防救科技中心委託之專題研究報告，台北：國家災害防救科技中心。
4.行政院主計處，2010，中華民國95年產業關聯表編製報告。
5.李秉正，2002，增加政府固定投資的經濟影響：投入產出模型與可計算一般均衡型的比較，農業與經濟，28，71-95。
6.林幸君、高慈敏，2008。蘇花國道興建期及通車後之區域經濟效果分析，台灣經濟預測與政策，38，2，31-72。
7.林幸君、高慈敏、賴金端、林志誠，2009。興建蘇花國道對區域觀光效益之影響分析，農業經濟叢刊，14，2，112-158。
8.吳雅雯，2003。九二一震災後觀光資源重建對臺灣中部地區之經濟影響分析，碩士論文，台灣大學森林學研究所。
9.陳盛能，1995。產業關聯統計，中華統計通訊，6(8)，2-14。
10.蕭代基、黃星翔、洪銘堅、盧孟明、羅以倫，2007。淡水河流域洪災損失機率風險分析，台灣經濟預測與政策，37(3)，31-53。
11.羅俊雄、葉錦勳、陳亮全、洪鴻志、簡文郁、廖文義，2002。HAZ-Taiwan地震災害損失評估系統，台大工程，85，13-32。
12.Boarnet, M. G., 1998. Business Losses, Transportation Damage and the Northridge Earthquake. Journal
of Transportation and Statistics, 1, 2.
13.Breaden, J. P., 1973. The Generation of Flood Damage Time Sequences, University of Kentucky Water
Resources Institute Paper, 32.
14.Cho, S., P. Gordon, J. E. Moore II, H. W. Richardson, M. Shinozuka and S. Chang, 2001. Integrating
Transportation Network and Regional Economic Models to Estimate the Costs of a Large Urban Earthquake,
Journal of Regional Science, 41, 39-65.
15.Cochrane, H. C., 2004. Indirect Losses from Natural Disasters: Measurement and Myth, in: Y. Okuyama, and
S. E. Chang (Eds.), Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, 37-52, New York: Springer.
16.Cole, S., 1988. The Delayed Impacts of Plant Closures in a Reformulated Leontief Model, Papers of the
Regional Science Association, 65, 135–149.
17.Cole, S., 1989. Expenditure Lags in Impacts Analysis, Regional Studies, 23, 105–116.
18.Davis, H. C. and E. L. Salkin, 1984, Alternative Approaches to the Estimation of Economic Impacts
Resulting from Supply Constraints, Annals of Regional Science, 18, 25–34.
19.Ellson, R. W., J. W. Milliman and R. B. Roberts, 1984. Measuring the Regional Economic Effects of
Earthquakes and Earthquake Predictions, Journal of Regional Science, 24, 559-579.
20.Grigg, N. S. and O. J. Helweg, 1975. State-of-the Art of Estimating Flood Damage in Urban Areas. Journal
of the American Water Resources Association, 11, 379-390.
21.Grigg, N. S., L. H. Botham, L. Rice, W. J. Shoemaker and L. S. Tucker, 1976. Urban Drainage and Flood
Control Projects Economic, Legal and Financial Aspects. Colorado State University Hydrology Paper.
22.Hicks, J. R., 1946. Value and Capital: An Inquiry into Some Fundamental Principals of Economic Theory.
Oxford: Clarendon Press.
23.Kates, R. W., 1965. Industrial Flood Losses: Damage Estimation in the Lehigh Valley, University of \
Chicago, Water Resource Paper, 98, University of Chicago Press.
24.Leontief, 1936, Quantitative Input and Output Relations in the Economic System of the United States, The
Review of Economics and Statistics, 18, 3, 105-125.
25.Miller, R. E. and P. D. Blair, 1985. Input-Output Analysis: Foundations and Extensions, Englewood Cliffs,
New Jersy: Prentice Hall Professional.
26.Okuyama, Y., 2004. Modeling Spatial Economic Impacts of an earthquake: Input-Output Approaches, Disaster
Prevention and Management, 13, 4.
27.Okuyama, Y., 2007. Economic Modeling for Disaster Impact Analysis: Past, Present, and Future. Economic
Systems Research, 19, 115 - 124.
28.Okuyama, Y., G. J. D. Hewings and M. Sonis, 1999. Economic Impacts of an Unscheduled, Disruptive Event: a
Miyazawa Multiplier Analysis, in: G. J. D. Hewings, M. Sonis, M. Madden and Y. Kimura (Eds.),
Understanding and Interpreting Economic Structure, Heidelberg: Springer, 113-144, New York: Springer.
29.Okuyama, Y., G. J. D. Hewings and M. Sonis, 2004. Measuring Economic impacts of Disasters: Interregional
Input-Output Analysis Using Sequential Interindustry Model, in: Okuyama, Y. and S. E. Chang (Eds.),
Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, 77-101, New York: Springer.
30.Parker, D. J., C. H. Green and P. M. Thompson, 1987. Urban Flood Protection Benefits - a Project
Appraisal Guide. Aldershot: Gower Technical Press.
31.Rose, A., 1995. Input-Output Economic and Computable General Equilibrium Models. Structural Change and
Economic Dynamics, 6, 295-304.
32.Rose, A., 2004. Economic Principles, Issues, and Research Priorities in Hazard Loss Estimation, in:
Okuyama, Y. and S. E. Chang (Eds.), Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, 13-36, New York:
Springer.
33.Rose, A., Benavides, J., Chang, S.E., Szczesniak, P. and Lim, D., 1997. The Regional Economic Impact of
an Earthquake: Direct and Indirect Effects of Electricity Lifeline Disruptions, Journal of Regional
Science, 37, 437-458.
34.Rose, A. and G. Guha, 2004. Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Electric Utility Lifeline Losses
from Earthquakes, in: Y. Okuyama, and S. E. Chang, (Eds.), Modeling the Spatial Economic Impacts of
Nature Hazards, 119-142, Heidelberg: Springer.
35.Smith, D. J. G., M. F. Viljoen and P. H. Spies, 1981. Guidelines for Assessing Flood Damage in South
Africa, in Pretoria, South Africa: Water Research Commission in collaboration with the University of the
Orange Free State, Bloemfontein, Institute of Social and Economic Research (ISER) and the University of
Stellenbosch, Stellenbosch, Bureau for Economic Research.
36.United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean, UNECLAC, 2003. Handbook for
Estimating the Socio-Economic and Environmental Effects of Disasters, UNECLAC Press.
37.van der Veen, A. and C. Logtmeijer, 2005. Economic Hotspots: Visualizing Vulnerability to Flooding,
Natural Hazards, 36, 65-80.
38.Werling, J. and R. Horst, 2009. Macroeconomic and Industry Impacts of 9/11: An Interindustry
Macroeconomic Approach, Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy, 15, 2.
39.White, G. F., 1945. Human Adjustment to Floods: A Geographical Approach to the Flood Problem in the
United States, University of Chicago, Department of Geography Research Paper, 29, University of Chicago
Press.
40.Yamano, N., K. Yoshio and S. Yoshiharu, 2007. Modeling the Regional Economic Loss of Natural Disasters:
The Search for Economic Hotspots. Economic Systems Research, 19, 163-181.
41.楊浩彥，2009。簡介可計算一般均衡模型，http://cc.shu.edu.tw/~haoyen/cge1.pdf
42.國家地震工程研究中心，http://teles.ncree.org.tw/AboutTELES.aspx