臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

East Asian countries are generally stigmatized as being highly export-led. Especially Taiwan receives these conjectures, as its production is highly export oriented. This paper examines the validity of the Export-Led Growth (ELG) hypothesis in Taiwan using quarterly data for the period 1981-2011. Time-series econometrics techniques are employed to test for the relationship and causal linkage between exports and economic growth. Toda and Yamamoto Non-Causality test determines that in contrary of theoretical acceptance, causation runs unidirectional from economic growth to exports. This research suggests, according to theory of the growth-led export hypothesis, that economic growth during this period could therefore be the result of a domestic development conceivably due to domestic technological improvement and increasing human capital and advocates that Taiwan became export oriented due to the country’s limited market capacity and that economic growth was not essentially the outcome of export promotion.

East Asian countries are generally stigmatized as being highly export-led. Especially Taiwan receives these conjectures, as its production is highly export oriented. This paper examines the validity of the Export-Led Growth (ELG) hypothesis in Taiwan using quarterly data for the period 1981-2011. Time-series econometrics techniques are employed to test for the relationship and causal linkage between exports and economic growth. Toda and Yamamoto Non-Causality test determines that in contrary of theoretical acceptance, causation runs unidirectional from economic growth to exports. This research suggests, according to theory of the growth-led export hypothesis, that economic growth during this period could therefore be the result of a domestic development conceivably due to domestic technological improvement and increasing human capital and advocates that Taiwan became export oriented due to the country’s limited market capacity and that economic growth was not essentially the outcome of export promotion.

TABLE OF CONTENTS
ABSTRACT I
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT III
TABLE OF CONTENTS IV
LIST OF TABLES VI
LIST OF FIGURES VII
LIST OF APPENDIX VIII
CHAPTER I: INTRODUCTION 1
1.1 RESEARCH BACKGROUND 1
1.1.1 ECONOMIC GROWTH AND EXPORT PERFORMANCE IN TAIWAN 3
1.1.2 INDUSTRY POLICY AND EXPORT DETERMINATES 17
CHAPTER II: LITERATURE REVIEW 27
2.1 EXPORT-LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS 27
2.2 GROWTH-LED EXPORT HYPOTHESIS 31
2.3 TWO-WAY CAUSALITY HYPOTHESIS 33
2.4 NEGATIVE CORRELATION 34
CHAPTER III: METHODOLOGY 36
3.1 DATA COLLECTION METHOD 36
3.2 METHODOLOGY 36
3.2.1 UNIT ROOT TEST 37
3.2.2 CHOOSING LAG LENGTH AND FORMING VAR MODEL. 40
3.2.3 JOHANSEN COINTEGRATION 40
3.2.4 TODA AND YAMAMOTO NON-CAUSALITY TEST 42
CHAPTER IV: EMPIRICAL STUDY OF EXPORT EXPANSION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN TAIWAN 46
4.1 DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS 46
4.2 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS 47
4.2.1 UNIT ROOT TESTING 47
4.2.2 LAG ORDER SELECTION 49
4.2.3 COINTEGRATION TEST 50
4.2.4 TODA AND YAMAMOTO NON-CAUSALITY TEST 51
CHAPTERV: CONCLUSION AND POLICY RECOMMENDATION 54
5.1 ANALYTICAL RESULTS AND CONSIDERATIONS 54
5.2 EXPORT COMPETITIVENESS AND POLICIES 56
5.3 RETHINKING EXPORT ORIENTATION AND DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION 58
REFERENCES 60

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