臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文主要研究議題為提出雙變量時間序列獨立性檢定方法。
此無母數檢定方法在平穩序列的假設下，
不須事先以適當模型濾化(filtering)，
也不須決定如何選取適當核函數(kernel function)與其平滑參數(smoothing parameter)
來調整統計量中的時期參數，
而直接以兩序列的經驗交叉相關係數(empirical cross correlation function)
與隨時期遞減的時期權數來建構獨立性檢定統計量。
同時，此無母數檢定方法非但檢定程序中所需的主觀設定少外，
其檢定結果也提供有用的訊息以利後續單變量或雙變量模型建模程序。
文中提出檢定不同時期與同時期的時間相關檢定統計量，
兩者的虛無漸進分配為可由樣本大小決定權數參數與自由度參數的卡方分配。

在考慮VARMA模型、具極端值情況雙變量模型、
與尾端相關(tail dependence)模型的模擬分析下，
分別比較本文與Haugh's、Hong's及
Pierre and Roy's等獨立性檢定方法的檢定表現與檢定差異。
透過模擬比較，
本文所提的雙變量時間序列檢定方法除了不受極端值出現而改變原有的檢定表現外，
極端值大小改變時對檢定能力的表現也顯著的優於其他檢定方法，為具穩健性的檢定。
對於可能存在於尾端相關的時間序列模型中，本文提出的檢定方法也優於文獻上的檢定。

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