臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究主要是藉由地理資訊軟體輔助特徵價格法來衡量基隆河流域的房地產價格是否會受洪災經驗的衝擊。從民國86 年至92 年總計蒐集10160 筆樣本資料，進行結構特性、可及性與洪災經驗等屬性變數的回歸分析，並透過Box-Cox 轉換來尋求最合宜的函數型態，以估計洪災機率對房屋價格的影響，俾利吾人釐清洪災經驗與風險是否會資本化於房地產的現象。本研究主要發現有：（1）房屋價格顯著地受到洪災機率、屋齡、房屋格局、樓板面積、與市中心距離、與公園距離、與捷運距離等之影響。
（2）洪災機率愈高，對房屋造成的折減愈高，頻率年每增加1％會使房價下降1.28％。（透過工程或減災措施來降低洪水頻率年（即洪峰高度下降）的效益，當洪災頻降低率降至防洪標準二百年洪水頻率年0.5 ％後，平均每戶可以獲得30.31 萬元的效益。可顯見房屋購買者會因為洪災風險而選擇其住宅區位，而通過各式減災計畫來降低洪水頻率年，將會為位於洪水侵襲區域內的既有建築帶來正面利益。（3）基隆流流域內所有住戶以特徵價格所估算出的效益高達2 兆餘元，數據遠高於基隆河整體治理方案全部預計執行預算726 億元，本益比將近27.69。

The hedonic valuation method (HVM) applied by GIS technique was used to quantify theinfluence of the impact of flooding on housing values in areas enveloped by Keelung river basin.
Market prices of 10160 Taipei metropolitan houses sold between 1995 and 2002 wereregressed against housing structural characteristics, neighborhood accessibility, environmental
amenity and two flood risk variables. The sample data acompanied by flood experience and other related attribute data are employed to estimate an appropriate Box-Cox hedonic price
function and estimate the elasticity of housing price with respect to flood mitigation. The findings reveal an distinguishable relationship between housing price and flood hazard. It is significantly that housing price is discounted by the probability of flooding over space. The higher the flood
frequency is, the lower the sale price would be. The property price drops 1.28％ as the probability of flooding increases by 1％ and approximately 2.47％ percent of the price depreciation was due to the flood experience. After reaching the flood prevention standard of annual 0.5 of flood frequency , the average each household can obtain benefit of 303,100 yuan.
It was concluded that estate seekers in Taipei metropolitan area evaluate according to flooding risk, and that considerable housing value related advantages are seems to be originated by
manifold flood mitigation projects in the area that cause a shrink of the perceived 100-year floodplain boundary. The total benefit of all household inhabit in Keelung river basin are up to more than 2 trillion yuan with benefit estimated out of the HVM. The result is higher than the budget of comprehensive mitigation plan of Keelung river basin which is expected to utilize budget 72,600 million yuan. The benefit-cost ratio B/C is nearly 27.69.

章節目錄
第一章 緒論
第一節 研究動機與目的………………………………………1-1
第二節 研究範圍與內容………………………………………1-5
第三節 研究流程………………………………………………1-7
第四節 基礎資料與分析架構…………………………………1-8
第二章 特徵價格法理論與文獻回顧
第一節 特徵價格法…………………………………………..2-1
第二節 文獻探討……………………………………………..2-7
第三章 基隆河流域綜合分析
第一節 基隆河流域背景分析………………………………..3-1
第二節 基隆河洪水歷史狀況………………………………..3-4
第三節 基隆河治理沿革…………………………………....3-8
第四章 變數資料分析與基本統計
第一節 淹水潛勢與洪災經驗…………………………………4-1
第二節 房價與房屋特性………………………………………4-16
第三節 基本統計分析…………………………………………4-19
第五章 洪災對住宅價格影響之實證
第一節 特徵價格模式設定……………………………………5-3
第二節 特徵價格模式之估計與統計分析……………………5-6
第三節 洪災之特徵邊際價格與效益評估……………………5-22
第六章 結論與建議
第一節 結論…………………………………………………. 6-1
第二節 建議及後續研究……………………………......…6-3
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