臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究以國際海運的散裝船船型為對象，共分為Capesize、Panamax、Handymax與Handysize四種船型，並採用作業基礎模式(activity-based model)計算其油耗與排放，並透過減速、課徵碳稅以及實施探交易市場共三種不同的減排手段搭配不同情境，進行海運碳排放減量之探討。航線距離以巴西出口至中國的鐵礦砂石之運送路線為主，並從租傭船業者之營運角度，在運量固定的限制下，面臨各種經濟情況(租金與油價改變)或政策實施(碳稅與碳交易市場的實行)時，如何透過不同的航速決策，以達到最低營運成本的目標。
研究結果顯示：(1)根據不同船型間的比較分析，大型船較小型船更具環境效益。例如：Handysize的每延噸海浬排放僅是Capesize的44%。(2)減速程度越高，減排效益越顯著。以減速30%的情境而言，甚至可以減少一半的排放。(3)課徵碳稅確實可以有效減排。以Capesize為例，若課徵160美元的碳稅，在碳排放方面會減少30%，但在成本方面會提高20%。(4)碳交易的實施同樣也具顯著的減排效益。同樣以Capesize為例，在碳交易市場的價格為40美元時，對業者而言會尋求降速以減少成本，此時成本僅增加0.8%，但在碳排放減量方面則可達到10%；此外在碳交易市場價格達38美元時，業者便會開始在碳交易市場改變其交易行為，從原本的買進碳權改變成賣出碳權，意即一旦碳交易市場的價格高至一定程度，業者便會從市場中賣出被高估的部分碳權以最大化其利益。(5)若以碳稅與碳交易市場兩種策略進行比較，主要差異在於業者成本上的負擔程度。課徵碳稅時增加的成本會完全轉嫁給業者，在碳交易的情況下則會以一定比例由政府吸收。

The object in this thesis is bulk carriers of international maritime industry, which can be classified to four types including Capsize, Panamax, Handymax and Handysize vessels, and an activity-based model is used to calculate fuel consumption and emissions. Moreover, different strategies are used to explore emissions reduction in the maritime industry, including speed reduction, carbon tax and carbon emissions trading. The study route is based on the transport of iron ore being shipped from Brazil to China. The purpose is to determine the optimal speed using the different strategies in order to determine which speed can achieve CO2 emissions reduction and can also minimize charterer operating costs.
The results are shown as follows: 1. Large vessels have more environmental benefits than small vessels. For example, the emissions per ton of per nautical mile of Capesize are only 44% of Handysize. 2. The greater the speed reduction, the more significant are the benefits in regard to emission reduction. In the case of a 30% speed reduction, the emissions are reduced by as much as half. 3. Carbon taxes can indeed effectively reduce emissions. Using the example of Capesize, in the scenario of a carbon tax of US$160.00, the CO2 emissions are reduced by 30%, but the cost will increase by 20%. 4. The implementation of carbon emissions trading has the same effective emissions reduction. In the example of Capesize, while the price in the carbon trading market is US$40.00, the charterer will decrease speed in order to mitigate the increasing costs. Ultimately, the cost will be increased by only 0.8%, but in terms of CO2 emissions, reduction can reach up to 10%. Also when the market price is more than US$38.00, the charterer will begin to change his original trading behavior in the market, from buying carbon credits to selling in order to maximize benefits. 5. The difference between carbon tax and carbon emissions trading is that the cost burden for carbon tax is completely imposed on the charterer, but in the case of carbon emissions trading, a certain percentage of the cost will be absorbed by the government. The increasing cost damage to the maritime industry is lower in the case of carbon emissions trading than it is in the case of carbon taxes.

Table of Content
Table of Content I
List of Tables III
List of Figures IV
Chapter 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Background 1
1.2 Motivation 5
1.3 Objective 7
1.4 Research Framework 9
Chapter 2 Literature Review 11
2.1 Carbon reduction strategy – speed reduction 11
2.2 Greenhouse gases and carbon tax 15
2.3 Carbon Emissions Trading 18
2.4 Summary 21
Chapter 3 Methodology 24
3.1 Fuel consumption and emissions model 24
3.1.1 Route description 24
3.1.2 Fuel consumption model 24
3.1.3 Emissions Model 27
3.2 Operating Cost Model 28
3.2.1 The fuel cost 28
3.2.2 The cost of chartering vessels 29
3.2.3 Other operating costs 29
3.2.4 The limitation of transport capacity 29
3.2.5 The speed limit 30
3.3 The operating cost model in speed reduction, carbon tax and carbon emissions trading 31
3.3.1 Variables description 31
3.3.2 The decision variable 32
3.3.3 Speed reduction 32
3.3.4 Adding carbon tax policy 33
3.3.5 The introduction of carbon emissions trading market strategy 33
3.4 Summary 34
Chapter 4 Empirical Analysis 36
4.1 Fuel price and rent 36
4.1.1 Fuel price 37
4.1.2 Rent 40
4.2 The impacts of speed reduction, carbon tax and carbon emissions trading 43
4.2.1 Speed reduction 43
4.2.2 Carbon tax 45
4.2.3 Carbon emissions trading 50
Chapter 5 Conclusions and Suggestions 58
5.1 Conclusions 58
5.2 Suggestions 60
5.3 Research limitations 61
5.4 Research directions in the future 62
References 64

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