臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

1909年4月15日於台北地區深處發生一規模7.3之深源地震，稱為1909台北地震。雖然此地震在當時所造成之傷亡不大，但若一類似事件再發生對於現今台北地區所造成之衝擊仍須被關心與注意，因此本研究使用數值模擬方法模擬1909台北地震，並探討不同震源機制、不同目標規模 (Mw6.8與Mw7.3) 以及不同震央位置之模擬結果在台北地區所產生之地表震動之差異。
本研究首先使用譜元素法 (Spectral element method) 模擬1909台北地震對台北地區所造成之地表震動。根據前人研究所重定位之震源位置以及其所提出1909台北地震可能之震源機制解，我們假設此地震有兩種破裂模式：點震源破裂模式與有限斷層破裂模式。在點震源破裂的假設之下，伸張型震源機制解 (δ= 20°, λ= -90°, φ= 90°) 較隱沒帶類型震源機制解造成較高之地表震動，而兩者皆在台北盆地西部有較高之PGV (Peak ground velocity) 值分布。而有限斷層假設之模擬結果，相較於擁有相同震源機制解(伸張型震源機制解)之點震源破裂假設之結果，在台北盆地內PGV高值分布較廣且有較長震動時間。
除了使用譜元素法模擬台北地震可能造成的地表震動外，本研究亦使用混合式的模擬方法，在分別使用譜元素法以及經驗格林函數法 (Empirical Green’s function method) 模擬低頻與高頻部分地震波後，將兩者結合得到寬頻段地震波資訊。本研究選擇2013年10月11日發生在台北地區之下，芮氏規模4.9之深源地震 (深度143.8公里) 作為經驗格林函數，將寬頻測站網之紀錄分別由芮氏規模4.9 (中央氣象局) 和地震矩規模4.2 (RMT：Real-time moment tensor monitoring system) 修正至目標規模。台北測候所之地震報告早期地震測站台北(TAP)與基隆(KEE)站之觀測PGA (Peak ground acceleration) 分別為59.3以及67.0 gal。而本研究模擬結果顯示，模擬目標規模為Mw7.3且應力降較高(100 bars)之假設之模擬結果(TAPB/TAP：59.9 gal；WFSB/KEE：140.4 gal)與文獻紀錄之觀測值較符合，1909台北地震之規模可能高達Mw7.3。在分析地動值與地動搖晃時間之結果中，台北盆地內之測站(TAPB)地動值並非最高，但卻有較長之搖晃時間。

The 1909 Taipei earthquake (M6.8) occurred beneath the Taipei Metropolitan Area (TMA), the possible seismic hazard similar to the 1909 Taipei earthquake would require special attention. According to the hypocenter relocated from historical archived travel times of the 1909 Taipei earthquake by Kanamori et. al (2012), we simulated ground motions in TMA by using Spectral Element Method (SEM). A 3D velocity structure with topography and sediment layers in Taipei basin was also included in the simulation.
As the results of point-source simulations, the tension type mechanism may cause larger ground motions than the subduction zone type mechanism. The higher peak-ground-motion values occurred in the western part of Taipei basin with both two types of focal mechanisms. This distribution might correspond to the thicker sediment layers in the western part of the basin. The finite fault simulation showed that the high PGV area spread wider than the results from point-source assumption, and the coda waves became more obvious and caused longer shaking duration at station TAP than point-source assumption with the same focal mechanism.
SEM could provide us good prediction of low frequency ground motions, however, for real earthquakes, waveforms consist of broad frequency band signals. In order to obtain the information in a broad frequency band we simulated waveforms with hybrid method, which is a combination of SEM and empirical Green’s function method (EGFM). For higher frequency components, we chose a recently happened deep event (2013/10/11 M4.9 Depth:143.8 km) in Taipei area as the empirical Green’s function for the 1909 Taipei earthquake. We corrected the amplitude of the broadband records with hypocentral distance from depth 143.8km to 75km and modified the magnitude from ML4.9 (CWB) and Mw4.2 (RMT) to target magnitude (Mw6.8 and Mw7.3) by using EGFM. An east-dipping (δ=344°, λ=57°, φ=103°) finite fault was considered in the SEM simulation to obtain the lower frequency components. We also moved the hypocenter to the relocated hypocenter from Kanamori et al. (2012) and simulated both higher and lower frequency components.
By combining the time series of lower (SEM) and higher (EGFM) frequency components, the model of modifying the magnitude from Mw4.2 to target magnitudes (Mw6.8 and Mw7.3) has more reasonable PGA values and response spectra curves than from ML4.9 to target magnitude (Mw6.8 and Mw7.3). The observed PGA values from literature are 59.3 gal at station TAP and 67.0 gal at station KEE. According to the simulation results, the PGA values (TAPB/TAP：59.9 gal；WSFB/KEE：140.4 gal) from the model with target magnitude Mw7.3 and higher stress drop are closest to the observed values. For the analysis of strong shaking durations and PGA values, the station inside Taipei basin (TAPB) has lower PGA values but longer strong shaking durations.

中文摘要 ……………………………………………………………………………. I
英文摘要 …………………………………………………….……………………… III
致謝 …………………………………………………………………………….. V
目錄 ……………………………………………………………………………. VI
第一章 緒論 ………………………………………………………………………………….1
1.1研究動機與目的 …………………………………………………….............................1
1.2文獻回顧 …………………………………………………………….............................2
1.1.1 1909台北地震震源特性研究..…………………………………………………….2
1.1.2 1909台北地震之地動紀錄……………………….………......................................2
1.1.3台北盆地相關地動模擬研究………………………………………………………3
1.3台北盆地地質概述….…………………………………………………………………..3
1.4本文範疇與內容………………………………………………………………………...5
第二章 地動模擬方法 ……………………………………………………………………...17
2.1 譜元素法 ……………………………………………………………………………..17
2.1.1 台灣北部地區三維速度模型與網格建構 ……………………………………...17
2.1.2 1909台北地震情境地震模擬假設 ……………………………………………...18
2.2 混合式模擬 …………………………………………………………………………19
2.2.1 高頻部分地動模擬－經驗格林函數法 ………………………………………...19
2.2.2 低頻部分地動模擬－譜元素法
2.3 混合適模擬模型建立 ………………………………………………………………23
第三章 地動模擬結果 ……………………………………………………………………...40
3.1 譜元素法模擬結果 …………………………………………………………………..40
3.1.1 點震源假設模擬結果比較 ……………………………………………………...40
3.1.2 點震源假設與有限斷層假設模擬結果比較 …………………………………...40
3.2 混合式模擬法模擬結果 ……………………………………………………………..41
3.2.1 不同小地震規模來源之混和式模擬結果 ……………………………………...41
3.2.2 將目標規模調整至Mw7.3 之混和式模擬結果 ……………………………….43
3.2.3 震央位於1909 台北地震震央之模擬結果 ……………………………………43
第四章 討論 ………………………………………………………………………………...63
4.1 混合式方法模擬結果與1909 台北地震之地動紀錄 ……………………………...63
4.2 混合式方法模擬結果與強地動衰減式預估值………………………………………64
4.2.1 模擬結果與PGA 衰減式 ………………………………………………………64
4.2.2 模擬反應頻譜與SA 衰減式 …………………………………………………...65
4.3 混合式方法模擬結果之地動搖晃時間與地動值 …………………………………..66
第五章 結論 ..…………..…………………………………………………………………..77
參考文獻 …………………………………………………………………………………….78
附錄(A) ………………………………………………………………………………………81
附錄(B) ………………………………………………………………………………………83

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