臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

台灣地處多颱風地帶，配電系統易導致大規模停電事故，因此多事件故障之緊急派工與復電策略之電腦化系統將是不可或缺的工具。本論文旨在研究配電系統發生大規模停電時，將人力及機具車輛等緊急搶修之資源調度問題，以智慧型專家系統協助搶修指揮中心有效的管理搶修資源、規劃搶修順序及調度人力與車輛資源。專家系統推論時亦同時考慮緊急搶修先後之停電區的轉供問題，能夠進一步預估復電時間，減少停電所造成之衝擊。
由於大規模停電搶修時，各事件及各種搶修資源在其各種狀態的期程經常含有不確定之因素，本論文中探討搶修資源調度之各種不確定性，訂定模糊集合及其模糊運算來處理不確定性之問題。
對於派工決策方面，本論文中提出以模糊時間派翠網路(Fuzzy Time Petri Net，FTPN)建構搶修資源調派推論網路。推論系統利用停限電管理系統(Outage Management System，OMS)之地理圖資及其關聯式資料庫之相關資料並與搶修資源資料庫結合，經由推論提出停電事故搶修優先順序及人力與車輛搶修資源之最佳化調度，達成智慧型派工之目標。
為了驗證所提方法之可行性，本論文以台電公司台南區處實際配電系統作為模擬對象，根據模擬結果可發現本論文所提出之模糊時間派翠網路模型與智慧型派工專家系統，可以有效的求出配電系統大規模停電時之搶修規劃、搶修資源調度並預估復電時間。

Significant damages caused by extreme weather conditions such as typhoon, flood, storm could result in multiple and widely-spread outages in distribution systems. The electric utilities will send repair crew to deal with the outages as soon as possible. Due to the limits of repair resources in a large-scale multiple contingencies, an effective resource management is especially crucial.
In this thesis, fuzzy sets and fuzzy operations for the events and the resources are proposed to deal with uncertainties in the scheduling. A Fuzzy Time Petri Net(FTPN) model is proposed to be the inference system of the contingent resource scheduling system. The geographical information and the relational data base imbedded in the Outage Management System(OMS) are integrated with crew-and-vehicle resource data base to support the FTPN inference system. Load transfer is also considered for the out-of-service areas before and after the completion of the repairs. Sequence and the repairing time of the events, time to send and the listing of the crews and engineering-vehicles, and the time of completion of the events will be obtained in the scheduling system.
To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed fuzzy rule-based expert system and FTPN models, a practical distribution system in Tainan region with detailed data in the OMS is selected for computer simulation. It is found that proposed methodology provides the capability of contingent management of the resources effectively.

摘 要
Abstract
目錄
圖目錄
表目錄
第一章 序論
1-1 研究背景及動機
1-2 國內外相關研究概況
1-3 論文內容概述
第二章 模糊時間派翠網路
2-1 前言
2-2 模糊理論
2-2-1 模糊集合
2-2-2 模糊運算
2-3 派翠網路
2-3-1 派翠網路之基本架構與定義
2-4 模糊派翠網路
2-4-1 模糊推論
2-5 時間派翠網路
2-5-1 時間因素
2-5-2 狀態節點含時間因素之推論
2-5-3 轉移節點含時間因素之推論
2-6 模糊時間派翠網路
2-6-1 模糊時間因素
2-6-2 糊時間推論
第三章 大區域停電搶修資源調派分析
3-1 前言
3-2 大區域停電事件搶修及資源狀態分析
3-3 停電搶修前資源分析
3-4 停電搶修期間資源分析
3-5 搶修完成與復電狀態分析
3-6 資源調派分析
3-6-1 事件派修
3-6-2 人員及車輛資源派遣
3-6-3 搶修排程系統規劃
3-7 搶修規劃與轉供復電
3-7-1台電典型高壓地下饋線之負載轉供
3-7-2停電區與復電操作規劃
3-7-3考慮負載轉供之緊急搶修規劃
第四章 搶修資源調派推論網路
4-1 前言
4-2 時間相關因素分析
4-2-1 事件搶修之時間因素
4-2-2 搶修資源之時間因素
4-2-3 事件搶修及資源調派之時間因素之關係
4-3 結合時間調派之推論網路
第五章 台電配電系統模擬
5-1 前言
5-2 大規模停電搶修資源調派專家系統
5-3 可調派資源分析
5-4 實際配電系統故障事故模擬
5-4-1 事故不需前置作業且搶修資源充裕之搶修派工模擬
5-4-2 部分事故需要前置作業且部分搶修資源須等待才可搶修之模擬
第六章 結論與未來研究方向
6-1 結論
6-2 未來研究方向
參考文獻
附錄A

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