臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

專案活動在進行規劃與評估的時候，需要考慮很多不確定因素，如專案排程可靠度與活動時間的學習效應，一般我們在計算計劃評核術(Program Evaluation and Review Technique )和要徑法(Critical Path Method)時，並沒有把上述因素考慮進去。
本研究結合計畫評核術與要徑法特點，開發出一個電腦模擬和實驗設計的方法，透過反應曲面法(Response Surface Methodology)分析含有隨機趕工的時間成本權衡問題(Time-Cost Tradeoff Problem)，最後利用數學規劃求解最小完工時間與最小完工成本。實例證明出專案活動在多次經驗執行下，得到完工時間更短、完工成本更低，且滿足時間與成本可靠度要求的結果，替專案團隊取得專案計畫最佳整體解決方案。

While planning and estimating a project, there may have many uncertain factors considered, such as the reliability of project schedule and the influence of learning curve. However, these factors as above are not involved in calculating the program evaluation and review technique(PERT) and critical path method(CPM) generally.
Thus, the study applied the feathers of both PERT and CPM to develop the computer simulation and design of experiments. Furthermore, the study employed the response surface methodology to analyze the Time-cost tradeoff problem and also considered the factor of cashing problems randomly. Finally, the study used the Mathematical programming to solve Minimum completion time and minimum completion cost.
Based on an example of project activities executing several times, it could gain the shorter completion time and lower completion cost, further, this could be satisfied at the result of time reliability and cost reliability. Certainly, project teams could come out the optimal overall solution problem for the running projects based on the study.

中文摘要 i
Abstract ii
目錄 iii
圖目錄 v
表目錄 vi
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究動機與目的 2
1.3論文架構與流程 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
2.1 學習曲線、計畫評核術與要徑法 5
2.1.1學習理論 5
2.1.2 學習曲線模型 6
2.1.3計畫評核術(PERT)與要徑法(CPM)應用 13
2.1.4 學習效應在排程上應用 16
2.2 實驗設計 16
2.2.1反應曲面法 16
2.2.2 反應曲面法的簡介 16
2.2.3 BBD設計矩陣 19
第三章 研究與實驗方法 20
3.1 學習曲線實驗 20
3.1.1 實驗對象 21
3.1.2實驗器材 21
3.1.3實驗程序 21
3.1.3.1實驗準備工作 21
3.1.3.2實驗操作步驟 22
3.2 研究方法和範例描述 22
3.2.1實驗數據分析方法 22
3.2.2 範例描述 23
3.2.2.1 範例探討 23
3.2.2.2 完工時間可靠度與完工成本可靠度之假設 28
第四章 實驗結果與數值分析 30
4.1 學習效果實證 30
4.2 完工時間之資料分析 33
4.3 完工成本之資料分析 37
4.4 完工時間可靠度之資料分析 41
4.5 完工成本可靠度之資料分析 45
4.6學習影響下的完工時間與完工成本之衡量 49
第五章 結論 53
參考文獻 54

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