臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

為減輕豪雨造成的災害，準確的定量降雨估算與後續之預報顯得相當重要。氣象衛星廣大的觀測範圍，可提供足夠的資料對降雨量進行深入研究與應用。台灣地區過去曾從事許多衛星資料反演降雨量的研究，但受限於衛星微波資料時間解析度不足，未具有即時性，以及紅外線資料所觀測之亮度溫度為雲頂特徵和降雨量較無直接關係，未具有足夠的準確性，因此限制了這些研究成果的用途。
本研究結合衛星微波穿透雲層直接觀測降雨及紅外線高觀測頻率的優點，將 TRMM 衛星之 TMI 微波資料及 AQUA 衛星之 AMSR-E 微波資料結合MTSAT-1R 衛星的紅外線資料，建立微波資料反演之降雨強度與紅外線觀測之亮度溫度值兩者的關係式。以每 30 分鐘一筆的紅外線亮度溫度觀測值，利用關係式估算即時降雨量。估算之降雨量，使用日本小島測站地面雨量觀測資料及TRMM 衛星之 PR 降雨雷達估算值，進行比較分析。
研究結果顯示，上述方法在定性上，可成功反演出強降水區域之螺旋雲雨帶、外圍之弱降水區域，及颱風眼之未降雨區域，但是普遍具有強降水區域低估，弱降水區域高估之現象。而在定量降水驗證分析上，與地面雨量觀測及 PR降雨雷達估算值之相關係數，最佳可達 0.79，但亦出現相關係數不到 0.1 的個案。這有可能是受到估算值時間內插、颱風降水特性、以及視場不均勻降水的影響。雖然，本研究所提供之方法，在定量降雨估算上，尚有待後續研究提昇其準確性，但已可提供約每 30 分鐘一筆降雨強度分布資料，達到即時估算降水之目的。

To reduce the damage and loss of lives and properties due to torrential rainfall, it is extremely important for governmental operation unit to provide accurate rainfall estimations for severe weather systems, especially Typhoon system. As the satellite observation system can provide a wide coverage of observation for severe systems, it is able to provide enough observations for rainfall study and application, especially in the open ocean areas. In previous studies on satellite rainfall retrieval, it is found that the microwave observation is quite limited in time, about one or two observations during a day for a single satellite, and that the satellite infrared data are not able to provide accurate rainfall estimation due to its poor information on the rain particles embedded in the severe weather systems.
This research is aimed to overcome disadvantages mentioned above to conceive an idea for combining the microwave and infrared data together for improving the accuracy of satellite rainfall and a real time satellite rainfall map. This purpose is fulfilled by collocating the same spatial and temporal TMI-derived rainfall rate or AMSR-E-derived rainfall rate and MTSAT-1R brightness temperature and establishing their relationship using probability matching method. The hourly real time MTSAT-1R rainfall map can be obtained immediately by the above relation. The satellite retrieval rainfall products are compared with other rainfall observation or product, including rain gauge and Precipitation Radar-derived rainfall map.
The results show that heavy rainfall areas within spiral rainbands, weak rainfall areas in the outer region, and rain-free eyes can be successfully retrieved qualitatively. However, rainfall is underestimated for heavy rainfall areas and overestimated for weak rainfall areas. In quantitative analyses, the best correlation coefficient between the retrieved rainfall and observations is about 0.79. For some cases, the lowest correlation coefficient is less than 0.1. This may be caused by time interpolation of rainfall estimation, characteristics of typhoon rainfall, and beam filling error. Although further studies are needed to improve the accuracy of rainfall estimation method developed in this study, timely rainfall estimation map can be provided about every 30 minutes.

目 錄
誌 謝 ii
摘 要 iii
ABSTRACT iv
目 錄 vi
表 目 錄 viii
圖 目 錄 ix
1. 緒論 1
1.1 研究動機 1
1.2 文獻回顧 2
1.3 研究目的 6
2. 資料蒐集 8
2.1 TRMM衛星的TMI資料 8
2.2 Aqua的 AMSR-E資料 9
2.3 TRMM衛星的VIRS資料 10
2.4 MTSAT-1R的紅外線資料 10
2.5 TRMM/PR降雨雷達資料 11
2.6 地面島嶼測站降雨資料 12
3. 基礎理論 17
3.1 降雨區域辨識法 17
3.1.1 TMI降雨區域辨識法 17
3.1.2 AMSR-E 降雨區域辨識法 18
3.2 降雨率演算法 19
3.2.1 TMI降雨率演算法 19
3.2.2 AMSR-E降雨率演算法 20
3.3 濾除卷雲的方法 20
3.4 去除視場不均勻(beam filling error) 21
3.5 Chris Kidd之累積直方圖匹配法 21
4. 研究方法與步驟 28
4.1 研究方法 28
4.1.1 CHM-1 28
4.1.2 CHM-2 29
4.2 進行步驟 31
4.2.1 CHM-1 31
4.2.2 CHM-2 32
5. 結果分析與討論 40
5.1 定性分析 40
5.2 定量分析 42
5.2.1 以PR降水雷達近地面降雨資料為真值 42
5.2.2 以日本南方島嶼測站累積降雨資料為真值 43
5.3 整體結果討論 43
6. 結論與展望 63
6.1 具體結果 63
6.2 未來展望 64
參考文獻 66
論文發表 71
自 傳 72

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