臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

由於財務報表中的無形資產難以衡量，因此經常被忽視(如顧客權益)，導致財務報表資訊不足以滿足投資者的需求，本研究為彌補此一缺陷，探討顧客權益是否能反應公司的市場價值。
顧客權益計算資料，來自 Netflix 和 E-trade 2003 年至 2013 年公開財務季報表，透過兩次迴歸分析探討顧客權益與市場價值之關聯，第一次之迴歸，自變數為顧客權益、因變數為市場價值，第二次迴歸，本研究加入自變數市場價值除顧客權益，本研究將此自變數稱之為顧客權益指數。
第一次迴歸分析結果顯示，Netflix 可透過顧客權益反應市場價值，而 E-Trade單靠顧客權益無法可靠地預測市場價值。因此第二次加入自變數後發現 Netflix、E-trade 的解釋結果優於先前，兩間公司皆符合整體迴歸模式的解釋力，表示顧客權益指數確實對市場價值構成一個良好的預測。
本研究推斷兩家公司收費機制差異及各自對顧客權益計算方式不同，造成顧客權益無法單一反應市場價值，另外，可從個案歷年行銷事件中看出，當季度發生之重大事件將影響顧客權益中之參數，進而影響顧客權益與市場價值。
最後將動態與靜態之顧客權益、顧客權益指數加入自變數槓桿效應與市場價值做迴歸分析，證實將槓桿效應加入自變數中，能較準確反應市場價值。

The intangible assets of financial statements are not, on their own, sufficient to meet the need of investors. Therefore, in order to make up this defect, this research
discusses whether future customer cash flow could response on market value.
The data was estimated using quarterly data of Netflix and E-trade from 2003 to 2013. The main purpose of the research is to discuss the relation between customer
equity and market value by regression analysis. First, the author ran a simple regression with market value of a company as the dependent variable and customer value as the independent variable. Second, we added an adjustment factor, called the customer equity index (market value over customer equity) as independent variables.
The first results showed that customer equity of Netflix can predict market value.
The results of E-trade regression analysis indicate that customer equity alone were unable to reliably predict market value. Therefore, after adding customer equity index,the results showed that Netflix and E-trade produced a good prediction. However,customer equity index along with customer equity did constitute a good predictor of market value.
Our research inferred that charging system and definition of calculation customer equity were all different. This may lead customer equity can’t alone predict market
value. Besides, we could observe from yearly marketing events. When big issue affects the parameters of customer equity and it will affect customer equity and market value.
This research did a regression analysis in the dynamic and static model, adding an independent variable Leverage Effect. It’s proved that customer equity and LE can
predict market value more precisely. In this dynamic customer equity, we can predict future market value. This is one of the investment valuations offering for shareholders and investors.

摘要 ................................................................................................ i
ABSTRACT ........................................................................................ ii
目錄 ................................................................................................. iii
表目錄 ........................................................................................... iv
圖目錄 .......................................................................................... vi
第一章 緒論 ...................................................................................................... 1
第一節 研究背景與動機 ................................................................................. 1
第二節 研究目的 ............................................................................................. 2
第三節 研究流程圖 ......................................................................................... 3
第二章 文獻回顧 .............................................................................................. 4
第一節 顧客終身價值和顧客權益 ................................................................ 4
第二節 顧客權益和市場價值 ........................................................................ 8
第三節 Bass 擴散模型..................................................................................... 8
第四節 槓桿效應 ........................................................................................... 14
第三章 個案公司介紹 .................................................................................... 16
第一節 個案公司介紹：Netflix................................................................... 16
第二節 個案公司介紹：E-Trade ................................................................. 20
第四章 研究方法 ............................................................................................ 23
第一節 研究對象及資料 ............................................................................... 23
第二節 研究設計 ........................................................................................... 23
第三節 研究方法 ........................................................................................... 37
第五章 實證結果與分析 ................................................................................ 39
第一節 Bass 擴散模型估計建立................................................................. 39
第二節 迴歸分析 ........................................................................................... 39
第三節 迴歸結果分析 ................................................................................... 40
第四節 Netflix 與 E-Trade 比較及槓桿效應比較 ....................................... 52
第六章 結論與建議 ........................................................................................ 63
第一節 研究結論 ........................................................................................... 63
第二節 研究限制 ........................................................................................... 64
第三節 未來研究建議 ................................................................................... 65
參考文獻 ........................................................................................ 66

一、中文部分
江劉鑾(民 96)。行動通訊市場與手機生命週期之探討-以台灣市場為例(碩士論文)取自臺灣博碩士論文系統。

劉秀曼(民 103)。網路公司之顧客權益與市值關連性之研究－以 Netflix 公司為例取自臺灣博碩士論文系統。

劉德軍（民 103） 顧客權益與市場價值關聯性之研究-以 E*TRADE 公司為例（未出版之碩士論文）。德明財經科技大學，臺北市。

吳育宏（民 103）。文章評論【UNIQLO 款式超少，業績還賣贏對手的秘訣...】。
取自 http://www.businessweekly.com.tw/KBlogArticle.aspx?id=6445

吳育宏（民 103）。文章評論【林鳳營鮮乳售價較高，卻讓顧客指名購買的關鍵
在…】。取自 http://www.businessweekly.com.tw/KBlogArticle.aspx?id=6877

吳育宏（民 103）。文章評論【抓緊 2 成「好」客戶，你的公司就不會倒！】。取自 http://www.businessweekly.com.tw/KBlogArticle.aspx?id=6214

二、英文部分
Amir, E., & Lev, B. (1996). Value-relevance of nonfinancial information: The wireless communications industry. Journal of Accounting and Economics, 22(1–3), 3-30.

Bass, F. M. (1969). A new product growth model for consumer durables. Management Science, 15 (5), 215-227.

Bauer, H. H., Hammerschmidt, M., & Braehler, M. (2003). The customer lifetime value concept and its contribution to corporate valuation. Yearbook of Marketing and Consumer Research, 1, 47–66.

Berger, P. D., & Nasr, N. I. (1998). Customer lifetime value: Marketing models and applications. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 12 (1), 17–30.

Berger, P. D., Echambadi, N., George M., Lehmann, D. R., Rizley, R., & Venkatesan,R. (2006). From customer lifetime value to shareholder value. Journal of Service
Research, 9 (2), 156–167.

Blattberg, R. C., Deighton, J. (1996). Manage marketing by the customer equity test. Harvard Business Review, 74, 136–144.

Brealey, R. A., & Myers, S. C. (1996). Principles of corporate finance, 5th ed. New York: McGraw-Hill
Fourt, L.A, Woodlock, J. W. (1960). Early prediction of market success for new grocery products. Journal of marketing, 25(2) , 31-38.

Gupta, S., Lehmann, D. R., & Stuart, J. A. (2004). Valuing customers. Journal of Marketing Research, 41(1), 7-18.

Gupta, S., Zeithaml, V. (2005). Customer metrics: the past, the present, and the future in academia and practice. Marketing Science Institute, Special Report, n. 05-200,39–75.

Gupta, S., & Lehman, D. R. (2003). Customers as assets. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 17(1), 9-24.

Gupta, S., Lehmann, D. R. (2006). Customer lifetime value and firm valuation.Journal of Relationship Marketing, 5, 87-110.
Hanssens, D. M., Rust, R. T., & Srivastava, R. K. (2009). Marketing strategy and Wall Street: Nailing down marketing's impact. Journal of Marketing, 73(6), 115-118.

Ittner, C. D., & Larcker, D. F. (1998). Are nonfinancial measures leading indicators of financial performance? An analysis of customer satisfaction. Journal of Accounting Research, 36 (3), 1–35.

Kim, N., Mahajan, V., Srivastava, R. K.(1995). Determining the going market value of a business in an emerging information technology industry: The case of the
cellular communications industry. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 49( 3), 257–279.

Kotler, P., & Armstrong, G. (1996). Principles of marketing, 7Th ed., Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ
Kumar, V., & George, M. (2007). Measuring and maximizing customer equity: A critical analysis. Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 35, 157–171.

Kumar, V., & Shah, D. (2009). Expanding the role of marketing: From customer equity to market capitalization. Journal of Marketing, 73(6), 119-136.

Libai, B., Muller, E., and Peres, R. (2009). The diffusion of services. Journal of Marketing Research, 46( 2), 163-175.

Lukas, B. A., Whitwell, G. J., Doyle, P. (2005). How can a shareholder value approach improve marketing's strategic influence? Journal of Business Research,
58, 414–22.

Mahajan, V., Muller, E., & Bass, F. M. (1990). New product diffusion models in marketing: A review and directions for research. Journal of Marketing, 54(1), 1-26.

Mansfield, E. (1961). Technical change and the rate of imitation. The Econometric Society, 29(4), 741-766.

McDonald, M. A. (1996). Service quality and customer lifetime value in professional sport franchises. Doctoral Dissertations Available from Proquest. Paper AAI9709627. University of Massachusetts Amherst, Ann Arbor.Mulhern, F. J.(1999). Customer profitability analysis:Measurement, concentration, and research directions. Journal of Interactive Marketing, 13(1), 25-40.

Niraj, R., Gupta, M., & Narasimhan, C. (2001). Customer profitability in a supply chain. Journal of Marketing, 65(3), 1-16.

Rego, L. L., Billett, M. T., Morgan, N. A. (2009). Consumer-based brand equity and firm risk. Journal of Marketing,73, 47–60.

Reichheld, F. F.(1996). The loyalty effect: The hidden force behind growth, profits, and lasting value. Boston: Harvard Business School Press. Reinartz, W. J., Kumar V. (2000). On the profitability of long-life customers in a
noncontractual Setting: An empirical investigation and implications for marketing.Journal of Marketing, 64(4), 17-35.

Rust, R. T., Zeithaml, V. A., & Lemon, K. N. (2000). The Free Press, New York, 292. Rust, R. T., Ambler, T., Carpenter, G. S., Kumar, V., Srivastava, R. K.( 2004).
Measuring marketing productivity: current knowledge and future directions. Journal of Marketing, 68(4), 76–89.

Rust, R. T., Lemon, K. N., & Zeithaml, V. A. (2001). Where should the next marketing dollars go, Marketing Management, 25-28.

Rust, R.T., Lemon, K.N., & Zeithaml, V. A. (2004). Return on marketing: Using customer equity to focus marketing strategy. Journal of Marketing, 68(1), 109-127.

Schmittlein, D. C., & Mahajan, V. (1982). Maximum likelihood estimation for an innovation diffusion model of new product acceptance. Marketing Science, 1 (1),
57-78.

Schulze, C., Skiera, B., & Wiesel, T. (2012). Linking customer and financial metrics to shareholder value: The leverage effect in customer based valuation. Journal of
Marketing, 76(2), 17–32.

Silveira, C. S., Oliveira, M. O. R., Luce, F. B. (2012). Customer equity and market value: Two methods, same results? Journal of Business Research, 65(12), 1752–
1758.

Srivastava, R. K., Shervani, T. A., & Fahey, L. (1998). Market-based assets and shareholder value: A framework for analysis. Journal of Marketing, 62(1), 2-18.

Ulaga, W. (2003). Capturing value creation in business relationships: A customer perspective. Industrial Marketing Management, 32 (8), 677–693.

Wiesel, T., Skiera, B., & Villanueva, J. (2008). Customer equity: An integral part of financial reporting. Journal of Marketing, 72(2), 1–14.

Woodruff, R. B. (1997). Customer value: The next source for competitive advantage.Journal of the Academic of Marketing Science, 25(2), 139-153.

三、網路部分

keynote(2014)，etrade 等網頁平均使用時間。取自
http://www.keynote.com/performance-indexes/banking-us/

Robert Lo(2013)，Netflix 靠自製影集「House of Cards」起死回生？取自
http://www.inside.com.tw/2013/02/27/netflix-house-of-cards

吳愷媛(2013)，推自家劇建功 Netflix 業績驚喜付費用戶增至 2791
萬直逼 HBO。
取自
http://www.hket.com/eti/article/01af12dc-02ff-4455-98a8-4481221fed1a-588287?c
gs=&source=print&printable=true

許凱玲(2012)，一張圖看網友花多少時間在社群網路。取自
http://www.bnext.com.tw/article/view/id/25582

黃浩榮(2011)，當年租片逾期被罰， 現在自擁 1700 萬訂戶。取自
http://www.gvm.com.tw/Boardcontent_17215_3.html

數位時代(1999)，28 秒與 15％失誤的省思。取自
http://www.bnext.com.tw/article/view/id/8651

數位時代(2006)，Netflix 把影帶送到你家信箱。取自
http://www.bnext.com.tw/article/view/id/3343

簡添福(2000)，美國的網路下單網站：E-trade。取自
http://mypaper.pchome.com.tw/het/post/118465