臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

隨著全球化之趨勢與日益激烈之競爭，企業面臨越來越多的環境不確定性因素，為了維持在市場上的競爭力，企業紛紛將焦點從內部系統擴大至供應鏈系統，而供應鏈系統必須具備快速反應各種環境不確定性的能力，學者們認為彈性係指組織因應環境不確定性的反應能力，近年來也成為管理者所關注的焦點及企業提升競爭力的重要指標，然而，目前有關彈性及不確定性的研究皆注重在於判定兩者是否存在顯著性之關係，或者單獨專注於彈性之研究而無考量到不確定性之因素，更無關於環境不確定性下供應鏈彈性策略選擇之研究，鑒於上述之原因，本研究發展出一套在環境不確定情況下，評估供應鏈彈性的評估模式。
本研究利用模糊德爾菲(Fuzzy Delphi Method, FDM)篩選環境不確定性因素及供應鏈彈性準則，並以層級分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)計算各準則權重，為考量各準則之間的影響關係，再結合決策實驗室分析法(decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory, DEMATEL)得到各準則間之關聯度，再導入品質機能展開(Quality Function Deployment, QFD)考量供應鏈彈性與環境不確定性之關聯性，最後利用圖論與矩陣方法(Graph Theory and Matrix Approach, GTMA)將不確性之關係權重及供應鏈彈性權重整合成恆常函數，以決定供應鏈彈性在不確定準則下之權重並加以排序。
本研究選擇一塑膠廠為例進行探討，分析供應鏈系統在面臨不確定準則時，其應採取之供應鏈彈性之策略。本研究分析之結果顯示，在考量環境不確定情況下，供應鏈彈性策略排序值前三項為：動態調整生產力的能力、改變運輸公司的能力、以及增加客製化的能力，此結果可以讓決策者在面臨環境不確定情況時，作為供應鏈彈性選擇的依據，藉此來提升在市場上之競爭力。

In today’s globalized competitive environment, an organization must face more uncertain elements than before. In order to maintain the ability to compete in the market, an enterprise has to expand its operations from internal system to supply chain system. The supply chain system must be capable of reacting to various uncertainties quickly. It is recognized that flexibility represents an organization''s ability to respond to the uncertainties of environment. Recently, it has become an important indicator for enterprises to enhance competitiveness. In this study, we choose a plastic factory to be our object of study.
In this study, Quality Function Deployment (QFD) is the focal approach for the deployment of the integrated structure of the research. Fuzzy Delphi Method (FDM) is applied to select critical factors of supply chain flexibilities and environmental uncertainties. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to evaluate the relative weighted importance of environment uncertainty factors, while Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) is used to explore the relationship of the environment uncertainty factors. QFD is applied to discover relationship between environment uncertainty and supply chain flexibility. Finally, the Graph Theory and Matrix Approach (GTMA) is used to combine these approaches and find out the most important flexibility strategy in our research.
According to our research, when considering the uncertainties, the priorities of the supply chain flexibility strategies are as the following: dynamically adjust capacity, ability to vary transportation carries and increase level of customization. The result can allow the decision maker to improve the competitive ability when the markes arer facing a lot of uncertainties.

目錄
摘要.....i
Abstract.....iii
誌謝.....v
表目錄.....ix
圖目錄.....x
第一章.....緒論.....1
1.1研究背景與動機.....1
1.2 研究目的.....1
1.3 研究方法與流程.....2
1.4研究範圍及限制.....5
1.5 論文架構.....5
第二章 文獻探討.....6
2.1 彈性與不確定性之關係.....6
2.2 環境不確定準則.....7
2.2.1 需求不確定性.....7
2.2.2 供給不確定性.....7
2.2.3 製造不確定性.....8
2.3供應鏈定義.....10
2.4 彈性在供應鏈系統之研究.....11
2.4.1 供應鏈彈性之因素.....12
2.5 模糊德爾菲.....17
2.5.1 德爾菲起源.....17
2.5.2 模糊德爾菲.....17
2.5.3模糊德爾菲相關研究.....18
2.6 層級分析法.....19
2.6.1層級分析法之介紹.....19
2.6.2層級分析法相關研究.....20
2.7 決策實驗室分析法.....20
2.7.1 決策實驗室分析法之介紹.....20
2.7.2 決策實驗室分析法相關研究.....20
2.8 品質機能展開.....21
2.8.1 品質機能展開之介紹.....21
2.8.2 品質機能展開之相關研究.....22
2.9圖論與矩陣法.....23
2.9.1圖論與矩陣法介紹.....23
2.9.2圖論與矩陣法相關研究.....24
第三章 研究方法.....26
3.1.....研究架構.....26
3.2.....模糊德爾菲.....27
3.3.....層級分析法.....28
3.3.1層級分析法問卷之評估尺度.....29
3.3.2層級分析法操作步驟.....29
3.4.....決策實驗室分析法.....31
3.5.....品質機能展開.....33
3.6.....圖論與矩陣法.....34
第四章 個案分析.....36
4.1 案例背景說明.....36
4.2運用模糊德爾菲篩選關鍵準則.....36
4.3 環境不確定性之層級分析法權重.....39
4.4 環境不確定性之影響矩陣.....43
4.5 運用品質機能展開運算供應鏈彈性及環境不確定性之矩陣.....46
4.6運用圖論與矩陣法進行評估運算.....48
第五章 結論與建議.....59
5.1結論.....59
5.2 本研究貢獻.....60
5.3 未來研究與建議.....60
參考文獻.....61
附錄一.....69
附錄二.....73
附錄三.....77
附錄四.....80
附錄五.....83
Extended Abstract.....90
簡歷(C.V).....94

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