臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究探討通貨膨脹門檻值對銀行部門績效的影響。實證結果顯示，東協國家通貨膨脹門檻較低。本研究採用固定效應迴歸模型（Fixed effect model）進行分析，研究樣本為六個東協國家在1996-2014年的追蹤資料 (panel data)，六個東盟國家分別為柬埔寨、印度尼西亞、馬來西亞、菲律賓、泰國和越南。本研究使用不同的指標來測量銀行業績效表現，研究結果發現通膨與銀行的績效表現具有顯著的門檻效應，即當通貨膨脹率在門檻值以下，銀行部門績效表現隨通貨膨脹率而提高；當通貨膨脹率超過門檻值，這個正面的影響逐漸消失。同時，不同的衡量指標面臨不同的通膨門檻值。因此，本研究結果有助於決策者決定適合銀行體系發展的目標通貨膨脹率。

This study aims to test the threshold effect of inflation on banking sector performance. Our research can be considered as one of the scant empirical studies on the inflation-threshold effect in ASEAN countries. The research applies the fixed effect models (FEM) using annual data panel of the ASEAN-6 countries including Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia﹐ Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam over the period of 1996-2014. Using different indicators to measure banking development, the threshold regression results show strong evidences of the inflation-threshold effect in the inflation-banking relationship. However, we found different aspects of banking activities have different levels of inflation thresholds. Therefore, the findings will be a basis for the policy-makers to determine a target inflation rate to stimulate the banking system development.

Table of Contents
Abstract......................................................................................................................i
摘要.............................................................................................................................ii
Acknowledgments...............................................................................................iii
Table of Contents.................................................................................................iv
List of Tables...........................................................................................................vi
List of Figures........................................................................................................vii
Chapter 1 Introduction.......................................................................................1
1.1 Urgency of the Research.............................................................................1
1.2 Objectives of the Research.........................................................................4
1.3 Object and Scope of the Research..........................................................4
1.4 Research Methodology...............................................................................5
1.5 Thesis Structure..............................................................................................5
Chapter 2 Literature Review..............................................................................7
2.1 Theories of Inflation......................................................................................7
2.1.1 Definition of Inflation................................................................................7
2.1.2 Measures of inflation................................................................................8
2.1.3 Causes of inflation......................................................................................9
2.1.4 Consequences of inflation....................................................................10
2.2 Determinants and measures of banking sector performance...13
2.2.1 Measures of banking sector performance.....................................13
2.2.2 Determinants of banking sector performance.............................17
2.3 Relationship between inflation and banking sector performance 23
Chapter 3 Methodology..................................................................................27
3.1 Data Issues.....................................................................................................27
3.2 Models.............................................................................................................30
3.2.1 Linear models............................................................................................30
3.2.2 Threshold models....................................................................................34
Chapter 4: Empirical Results...........................................................................37
4.1 Descriptive Statistics..................................................................................37
4.2 Linear regressions............................................................................................................39
4.3. Threshold regressions..............................................................................39
4.4. Discussion about the regression results............................................48
Chapter 5 Conclusions......................................................................................54
5.1 Remarks...........................................................................................................54
5.2 Suggestions...................................................................................................55
5.3 Limitations and Future Directions.........................................................56
References.............................................................................................................57
Appendix................................................................................................................63
Extended Abstract..............................................................................................64
Curriculum Vitae (CV)........................................................................................69

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