臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

旅行業在競爭激烈的環境下，以80/20法則來看，旅行業者若能掌握「誰是目標顧客」，與顧客可能的「旅遊地點」之資訊，了解具獲利性高且重遊意願高的顧客屬性，和顧客偏好的旅遊地點，以擬定最佳的行銷策略，必能以最小化成本而有效獲利，進而維持 或增加市場佔有率。
本研究主要以國外旅遊市場為研究範圍，透過問卷調查方式收集台灣北部曾出國旅遊居民之人口變數、旅遊行為和旅遊意見資料，問卷發放期間從民國93年10月至民國94年2月。以資料探勘技術做為本文的研究方法：首先利用RFM(最近出國日期、出國旅遊頻率和出國旅遊花費)模型衡量顧客獲利性高低；接著以資料探勘技術的決策樹和購物籃分析進行獲利性顧客屬性分析，且以購物籃分析進行重遊意願不同程度之顧客屬性分析；最後以購物籃分析進行旅遊地點偏好分析，以探勘不同屬性的顧客其最適交叉銷售的旅遊地點，即預測不同顧客下一個可能前往的旅遊地點為何，便於旅行業者促銷合宜旅遊商品給顧客，提高購買率。
研究結果得知依「獲利性」所區隔之二個不同顧客群，藉由每年總收入、通常是否自己提議出國、通常與誰出國旅遊和通常出國旅遊的月份等屬性，可以了解高低獲利性顧客之屬性。另外，藉由整體顧客曾經到哪些國家旅遊之購物籃分析結果推論出，到過加拿大的顧客下一個旅遊地點以美國的機率最高，到過歐洲的顧客接著去美國或東北亞旅遊的機率最高，先去港澳、大陸、澳洲或美國的顧客下一個旅遊地點皆以東南亞的機率最高，依關連規則整體來看，發現近幾年台灣人出國旅遊景點似乎偏愛亞洲旅遊景點。
本研究之「顧客面」與「產品面」結果，可協助旅行業者了解不同獲利性區隔和重遊意願程度之顧客屬性，具體提供旅行業者可針對不同之顧客，規劃合宜的行銷與旅遊產品策略。

Under the fierce competition environment of too many outbound travel agencies in Taiwan, the travel agencies will have the change to maintain or increase the market share by proposing the marketing strategies of minimizing cost and maximizing profit according to the 80/20 rule, which means to focus the target traveler of those “Customer of profitability” and precisely the “next preferred travel destination”.
The research subject is foreign tourist market. We grant questionnaires investigation to collect demographic variables, travel behaviors and travel suggestion for residents of northern region. The questionnaire was collected from October of 2004 to February of 2005. The analyzing method of research is Data Mining Techniques. First, the profitability customers are defined by the RFM theory (R is the recent times of travel abroad, F is the frequency of travel abroad, and M is the money spent of travel abroad). Second, the Decision Tree and Basket Analysis of Data Mining Techniques were used to analyze the profitability customers’ characteristics. And the Basket Analysis was used to analyze the different willingness of revisiting customers’ characteristics. Third, the Basket Analysis was applied to predict the traveler’s next preferred abroad destination. It offers the information for the administrator of travel industry to plan marketing strategies to improve the buying rate.
The research will segment two segmentations by using profitability. It discovered that the characteristics, such as the annual gross income, the traveler suggested going abroad by oneself, the travel abroad companion and the months of travel, are appropriated segmentation bases of targeting the value customers. We get some information from the Basket Analysis of travel countries. The preferred abroad predicted destination results are that those who have traveled Canada will next visit America with high probability, those who have traveled Europe will next visit America or Northeast Asia with high probability and those who have traveled Hong Kong, China, Australia or America will next visit Southeast Asia with high probability. According to the whole Association Rule, the research finds that Taiwanese seems to prefer Scenic spot of Asia in recent years.
At last, the research result also provided the promotion strategies of travel destination for the outbound travel agencies to focus on the characteristics of profitability customers and willingness of revisiting.

目錄 Ⅰ
圖目錄 III
表目錄 IV
第一章 緒論 1
1.1 研究背景 1
1.2 研究問題 2
1.3 研究目的 3
1.4 研究流程 4
第二章 文獻探討 5
2.1 旅行業之特性 5
2.2 顧客獲利性 7
2.3 重遊意願 9
2.4 市場區隔 10
2.4.1 市場區隔定義 10
2.4.2 市場區隔變數 11
2.4.3 市場區隔方法 12
2.5 交叉銷售理論 13
2.6 資料探勘介紹 14
2.6.1 資料探勘的定義 14
2.6.2 資料探勘的弁?16
2.6.3 資料探勘的方法 17
2.7 相關研究探討 19
2.8 小結 20
第三章 研究方法 21
3.1 旅行業探勘流程 21
3.2 問卷設計與抽樣方法 22
3.3 資料分析方法 24
3.4 顧客獲利模式區隔準則定義 26
3.5 顧客屬性分析 28
3.6 顧客旅遊地點探勘層級 30
3.7 輔助軟體 30
第四章 研究結果與分析 32
4.1 顧客基本資料分析 32
4.2 獲利性區隔之顧客屬性分析 36
4.2.1 以決策樹進行顧客屬性分析 36
4.2.2 以購物籃進行顧客屬性分析 40
4.3 重遊意願之顧客屬性分析 45
4.4 旅遊商品偏好分析 52
4.4.1 整體樣本之旅遊商品偏好分析 52
4.4.2 獲利性高低之旅遊商品偏好分析 52
4.4.3 重遊意願之旅遊商品偏好分析 53
4.4.4 人口屬性之旅遊商品偏好分析 55
4.4.5 旅遊商品偏好之小結 70
第五章 結論與建議 74
5.1 結論 74
5.2 建議 75
5.3 研究限制與後續研究方向 76
參考文獻 77
附錄一 顧客意見調查表 81

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二、中文部分
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9.薛主堅，「渡假生活型態於澎湖旅遊市場區隔之研究」，國立台北科技大學生產系統工程與管理研究所碩士論文，民國90年6月。
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