臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

隨著自由貿易以及國際化的發展，產業不需侷限於本國從事研發、生產及行銷產品。如此競爭的市場環境，國際企業發現持續成長關鍵在於不斷地開發及推出新產品(Keegan,1995)。另外，由於網際網路的普遍，讓消費者能夠立即對其感興趣的產品搜尋相關的資訊，也能透過此傳播管道獲得已購買者的使用經驗以及推薦，如此新型態的網路口碑，在推展新產品時將會造成何種影響，會是企業面對的新課題。過往的文獻，鮮少討論網路口碑對創新產品擴散兩者間之影響。因此，本研究以美國電影為例，將不同電影網站所蒐集之網路口碑，譬如美國的IMDB電影網站與台灣的開眼電影網站，分類為母國網路口碑以及地主國網路口碑，用以探討創新產品在網際網路普及的環境下，是否會因為網路口碑加速創新產品擴散的程度以及造成何種影響。為探討網路口碑在不同情境下對美國電影擴散型態之影響，研究中開列網路口碑與干擾變數之交乘項。

本研究欲探討在網路平台上，創新產品的擴散速度如何受到網路口碑的影響，故使用Bass擴散模型為統計方法先得出一國的創新產品擴散係數，並以迴歸模型與截斷式迴歸模型來分析網路口碑對創新係數p、模仿係數q以及市場潛量m的擴散效果。另一方面，也探討網路口碑對銷售量的影響。研究資料則是利用美國電影在台灣銷售資料及美國、台灣兩地電影網站所蒐集之網路口碑資料，以2005年1月至2007年12月，三年間出品之美國前四十名賣座且在台映演超過三週以上之賣座影片為實證研究對象。

藉由探討美國影片在台灣受到母國與地主國兩地間網路口碑效果影響之擴散型態，以及網路口碑對於創新產品擴散影響之干擾效果分析，其結論將有助於企業明瞭網路口碑對銷售量的關係以及如何影響創新產品之擴散，進而讓企業擬定有效的行銷策略，以發揮網路口碑的效果。

Firms can develop, produce and promote their products in different countries due to the free trade and the internationalization, and the key to keep firms growing is to develop new products continuously in the market. Besides, consumers can search the information of new products which they are interested on the internet, and also attain the word of mouth through internet. Therefore, the effect of online word of mouth in the arena of new products diffusion is important for company. Only a few studies have discussed the effect between online word of mouth and new products diffusion.
Hence, this study collected the online word of mouth about movies from the different movies web sites, for example the IMDB Web site of America and the Atmovies Web site of Taiwan, and classified them into two categories, the online word of mouth from the home country and the host country, to see how them influence the diffusion patterns of American movies. In order to discuss the interference effect of online word of mouth, a regression with interactive variances is set.
The main investigation concerns how new products diffusion are influenced by online word of mouth; therefore, we get the coefficients of new products diffusion by bass diffusion model at first, then an regression and a truncated regression model are used to analyze the effect of online word of mouth on the coefficient of innovation, imitation and penetration potential. Also, this paper discussed how the box-office of American movies are influenced by online word of mouth. The results of this analysis of the new products diffusion influenced by online word of mouth from the home country and the host country can help firms understand how online word of mouth accelerate the innovation coefficient p, imitation coefficient q and the box-office in the diffusion process, and clearly show firms to create an effective marketing strategy.

Contents
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Research Background and Motivation 1
1.2 Research Purpose 3
1.3 Research Scope and Objectives 3
2. Literature Review 5
2.1 Word-of-mouth Effect 5
2.2 Innovative Products 8
2.3 Diffusion Theory 18
2.4 Study on Diffusion Model of Innovative Products 21
3. Methodology 25
3.1 Research Framework and Hypotheses 25
3.2 Source of Data and Definitions of Variables 30
3.3 Statistical Model 35
4. Analysis of Empirical Results 41
4.1 Basic Analysis 41
4.2 Effect of Online Word-of-Mouth on Box-office and BDM Coefficients 48
5. Conclusion and Suggestion 58
5.1 Conclusions 58
5.2 Implications 60
5.3 Limitations 62
5.4 Suggestions for Future Research 62
Reference 63

Tables
Table 1-1 2005-2007 Data of American Movies 4
Table 2-1 Research about Word of Mouth 6
Table 4-1 Frequency Distribution of the Types of Movies 41
Table 4-2 Frequency Distribution of the Attributes of Premiere Dates 42
Table 4-3 Frequency Distribution of the Sequels 42
Table 4-4 Frequency Distribution of the Playing Weeks 43
Table 4-5 Frequency Distribution of the Week Lag 44
Table 4-6 Correlation of Online Word-of-Mouth 45
Table 4-7 Variance Explained- the Online Word-of-Mouth 46
Table 4-8 Names Giving of Factors - the Online Word-of-Mouth 47
Table 4-9 Mean and Standard Deviation of the Online word-of-Mouth 48
Table 4-10 Effect of Online Word-of-Mouth on Innovation Coefficient p 50
Table 4-11 Effect of Online Word-of-Mouth on First Week Box-office 52
Table 4-12 Effect of Online Word-of-Mouth on Imitation Coefficient q 53
Table 4-13 Effect of Online Word-of-Mouth on Playing Weeks 55
Table 4-14 Effect of Online Word-of-Mouth on Market Potential m 57
Table 5-1 Empirical Results of Hypotheses 59

Figures
Figure 2-1 The new products classification 9
Figure 2-2 Bass Innovation Adopters classification 12
Figure 2-3 Rogers Innovation Adopters classification 13
Figure 2-4 Variables Influencing the Diffusion speed 18
Figure 3-1 Framework of Innovation Coefficient p
and First Week Box-office Model 26
Figure 3-2 Framework of Imitation Coefficient q and Playing Weeks Model 28
Figure 3-3 Framework of Model of Market potential m 30
Figure 3-4 Product Sales Curve 37

Chinese Thesis
1.王薇雲(2003)，「個人偏好模式與產品擴散模式在創新產品銷售預測能力之比較－以電影為例」，國立台灣大學國際企業研究所碩士論文。
2.曾慧芳(1998)，「跨國文化差異對新產品擴散影響之研究」，國立暨南國際大學國際企業學研究所碩士論文。
3.闕克儒(2004)，「網路匿名性、企業形象與關係品質對網路口碑影響之研究－以線上遊戲為例」，國立中央大學企業管理學系碩士論文。
4.劉小芳(1999)，「跨國流行商品擴散模型之比較研究：美國影片在臺銷售預測模式之建立」，國立暨南國際大學國際企業學研究所碩士論文。
5.劉靜宜(2000)，「網路商店消費者滿意度與再惠顧意願之研究－以實驗網路花店為例」，國立中央大學資訊管理學系研究所碩士論文。
6.盧非易(1997)，“台灣電影映演市場研究：以1994為例”，廣播與電視，第三卷第一期，頁167~191。

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