臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究旨在探討我國人力資本存量在國際比較下的人力資本存量發展定位
及未來三年的發展趨勢。
本研究以世界發展指標、聯合國人力發展報告、WEF 的全球競爭力報告和
芬蘭統計局等相關指標上各項資料齊全的國家為研究對象，共得有效樣本72 個
國家。在研究方法上，首先以線性結構模式分析本研究所建構的人力資本存量指
標的潛在內隱結構是單面向或多面向結構。在人力資本存量國際比較上，以集群
分析將各國加以分類，再以區別分析檢定分類的正確性，並以單因子ANOVA 檢
定分類之效度，最後以主成分分析建構一個人力資本存量綜合指標。在我國未來
三年的人力資本存量發展趨勢探討上，則以整合移動平均模式進行研究。
本研究獲得如下主要研究結果：
一、人力資本存量為一多面向構念涵蓋健康表現、教育、人口遷移與科技表現，
共12 個指標。在健康表現向度方面的測量指標為健康經費占GNP 比率、
平均壽命、粗出生率與粗死亡率；在教育向度上則為教育經費占GNP 比率、
中等教育粗在學率、高等教育粗在學率；人口遷移向度上為淨遷移率與人
才外流管控成效；在科技表現向度上則為高科技出口金額、科技人才比率
與政府推動ICT 的程度。
二、人力資本存量指標可以有效區分出國家間不同的集群。全部72 個國家共可
區分成高人力資本存量國家(25 個)、中人力資本存量國家(16 個)與低人力資
本存量國家(31 個)。
三、我國人資本存量現況經國際比較後居於高人力資本存量國家，整體綜合表現
為百分等級為72.03，位居第10 位。我國人力資本存量四大向度的現況，
均有已開發國家的水準。我國在健康表現向度百分等級為79.42，位居第6
名；在教育向度的百分等級為67.76，位居第24 名；在人口遷移的百分等
級為61.58，位居第23 名；在科技表現向度的百分等級為79.35，位居第5
名。
四、整體迴歸分析顯示人力資本存量四大向度可以解釋每人平均GDP 的77.0%
之變異量，顯示人力資本存量可以有效地影響每人平均GDP。
五、我國未來三年人力資本存量預測呈緩步上揚的趨勢。在中等教育粗在學率方
面是呈現先降後升的趨勢；在高等教育粗在學率方面，未來三年的發展呈現
急劇上升的趨勢；在教育經費占GNP 比率方面，民國93 年至95 年間呈現逐
步上揚的趨勢。
最後根據研究結果，本研究提出我國在人力資本存量發展上的相關建議，
俾供政策制訂與未來研究之參考。

The study aims to discuss positioning of Taiwan’s human capital stock in the
international comparison and its developmental trend for the next three years.
The subjects are 72 countries which have no missing value on 12 indicators
concluded from World development indicators, Human Development Report, Global
Competitiveness Report and Finland Statistic Bureau. The Study firstly adopts
LISREL to examine human capital stock’s latent structure. Besides, the study uses
cluster analysis to differentiate cluster membership and examined it’s correctness by
discriminant analysis and its validity by one-way ANOVA. Furthermore, the study
uses principal analysis to construct human capital stock composite index. Finally, the
study uses ARIMA to predict developmental trend of Taiwan’s human capital stock in
the next three years.
The major findings are illustrated as below:
1. Human capital stock is a multi-dimensional structure including four dimensions
and twelve indicators. Health dimension includes health expenditure, crude birth
rate and crude death rate. Education dimension includes secondary gross
enrollment ratio, tertiary gross enrollment ratio and public expenditure on
education. Migration dimension includes net migration rate and brain drain.
Technology performance dimension includes per capita high-technology exports,
high-technology expert rate and government ICT prioritization.
2. Human capital stock indicators can effectively differentiate cluster membership.
72 subjects can be divided into three clusters including cluster of high human
capital stock (25 subjects), cluster of middle human capital stock (16 subjects) and
cluster of low human capital stock (31 subjects).
3. Taiwan belongs to the cluster of high human capital stock and the percentile rank
of the composite index is 72.03, tenth out of 72 subjects. The percentile rank of
health dimension is 79.42, sixth out of 72 subjects. Education dimension’s
percentile rank is 67.76, twenty-fourth out of 72 subjects. Migration dimension’s
percentile rank is 61.58, twenty- third out of 72 subjects. Technology dimension’s
percentile rank is 79.35, fifth out of 72 subjects.
4. Regression Analysis shows that four dimension of human capital stock can
explain 77.0% of per capita GDP’s variance.
5. The trend of Taiwan’s human capital stock in the next three years is gradually
upwards.
Based on the major findings, the study provides suggestion for reference of
policy-making and the further research.

第一章 緒論...........................................................................................1
第一節 研究動機與目的………………………………………...2
第二節 研究問題………………………………………………...6
第三節 名詞詮釋………………………………………………...6
第四節 研究限制………………………………………………...7
第二章 文獻探討……………………………………………………...9
第一節 人力資本存量理論探討與指標建構…………………...9
第二節 人力資本存量與經濟發展之關係……………………..28
第三節 我國人力資本存量發展現況…………………………..38
第四節 人力資本存量預測……………………………………..58
第三章 研究設計……………………………………………………..67
第一節 研究對象與資料來源…………………………………..67
第二節 研究流程……………………………………………......68
第三節 人力資本存量指標操作型定義………………………..69
第四節 資料分析方法…………………………………………..71
第四章 結果分析……………………………………………………..75
第一節 人力資本存量構向之結果分析………………………..75
第二節 人力資本存量之國際比較之結果分析………………..90
第三節 人力資本存量與經濟成長之關係……………………109
第四節 我國未來三年人力資本存量之預測…………………114
第五章 結論與建議…………………………………………………131
第一節 結論……………………………………………………131
第二節 建議……………………………………………………134
參考文獻………………………………………………………………137
中文部分…………………………………………………………137
英文部分…………………………………………………………141

一、中文部份
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張芳全（民93）。國家發展指標研究。臺北市：五南。
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