臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究發現在台灣股票市場當中，相較於公司代號有不幸運數字的公司，公司代號中有幸運數字的公司具有價值溢酬。這個幸運代碼的價值溢酬一直存續到公司IPO之後第44個月。長期觀察時，我們發現在IPO之後的第9年公司仍享有幸運數字溢酬。我們相信此一長期存在之幸運數字溢酬反映出股市投資人對於特定數字的偏好，此現象可視為數字迷信文化當中非理性投資偏好的證據。本研究進一步發現投資者特別偏好8和9這兩個數字。在強度測試當中，幸運數字溢酬的現象於1990年代至2008年的不同期間皆存在，但在近幾年消失。有趣的是，幸運數字的價值溢酬僅出現在低法人持股的公司，意味著散戶更容易受到數字迷信的影響。

This study shows that the firms with lucky listing codes on the Taiwan Stock market are traded at a premium compared to the firms with unlucky listing codes. The lucky number premium exists without interruption until the 44th month after IPO, and can still be found in the long run—at least nine years after IPO. We believe that this long-lasting premium for firms with lucky listing codes just represents investors’ significant preference for lucky numbers. This phenomenon can be viewed as evidence that cultural numerological superstition induces irrational investment preferences. Further examination shows that the digits. 8 and 9 are particularly favored by investors. The lucky number premium is robust in different sub-periods from the 1990s to 2008, but has vanished in recent years. Interestingly, the lucky number premium only appears for firms with a low institutional holding, implying that individual investors are more likely to be affected by numerological superstition.

Introduction 1
Literature review 7
2.1 Behavioral Bias 7
2.2 Superstition 8
Data and Methodology 11
3.1 Data Source 11
3.2 Variable Definitions 12
3.3 Regression Models 14
3.4 Distribution of listing codes 15
Empirical results 17
4.1 Summary Statistics 17
4.2 Time-series trends in Tobin’s q 18
4.3 Valuation analysis 20
4.4 Valuation analysis for specific numbers 23
4.5 Long-term lucky number premium 24
4.6 Valuation analysis – Sub-period regression 25
4.7 Robustness test – Distribution of Tobin’s q 26
4.8 Valuation analysis – Institutional investors’ holdings 27
4.9 Probability of obtaining lucky and unlucky telephone/fax numbers for firms with lucky listing codes and firms with unlucky listing codes 28
Conclusions 31
Reference 35
Appendix 37

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