臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

　　水庫防洪運轉隨洪水的過程一般可分為洪水來臨前、洪峰發生前與洪峰通過後三個階段，而在洪峰通過後階段之運轉目標為：有效攔蓄水資源供枯水期使用，及預備足夠的滯洪容積，對可能的第二波洪水進行必要之調節。本研究探討洪峰通過後階段的水庫防洪運轉，分析如何採用階段性漸減溢洪道閘門開度之方式，增加水庫可攔蓄利用之水資源，並兼顧水庫安全。
　　本研究首先利用指數退水公式擬合集水區流出之退水流量歷線，再利用動態規劃法分析最適當的滯洪與蓄水策略。推估退水過程之成果統計顯示愈至退水段末期，指數退水公式的預估偏差愈小，在可精確掌握退水體積下，退水決策可靠度愈高，更有把握蓄水至目標水位。
　　就水庫的滯洪與洩洪過程來看，蓄水量與放水量間構成取捨(Trade-off)關係。測試洪峰後不同時距的階段性調蓄策略結果顯示，採6小時調整一次的決策較12小時決策之運轉在蓄、放水過程都比較平順，更能彈性因應短期降雨導致進水流量增加而適當調整放水策略，使得水庫水位不致超過預擬的限制水位。此外，水庫管理中心之運轉報表對退水段放水流量之估計易流於偏高，以致在運轉末期不易據以精確預估退水體積，連帶影響為不易精確蓄至目標蓄水位。

　　Reservoir flood control operation can be categorized into three stages: before the flood occurs, prior to the flood peak and post flood peak. The operation objective after the flood peak is to vacant proper storage volume to regulate probable floods followed and store sufficient water in reservoir for supply during dry season. The flood control operation post flood peak constitutes a trade-off between water storage and release.
　　This thesis fitted and forecasted the recession limb of reservoir inflow with exponential recession formula. The optimal flood operation policy was established by dynamic programming. The statistical results showed that the forecasted recession process closed to the real process near the final stage of the recession limb. It can reliably store water closes to the target storage due to accurate recession volume.
　　This research tested the policies of stagewisely reducing the gate openning of spillway to effectively store sufficient water for dry season use. It also provided equal attention to the dam safety after flood peak in the mean time. A strategy of updating releasing policies every 6 hours would provide smoother processes of both storage and release than the strategy of altering policies ever 12 hours, especially for the situation of rainfall occurred occasionally after flood peak. This type of strategy can closely store water to the target storage especially when the tabulated releases of reservoir operation retain estimated error.

摘要 i
Abstract ii
誌謝 iv
目錄 v
表目錄 viii
圖目錄 ix
符號對照表 xi
第一章　　前言 1
1.1　問題背景 1
1.2　研究目的 3
1.3　章節架構 5
第二章　文獻回顧 6
2.1　洪峰後防洪運轉之滯洪蓄水策略 6
2.2　防洪運轉放水策略之優選分析 9
第三章　　研究方法 12
3.1　退水過程分析 12
3.1.1　集水區退水過程探討 12
3.1.2　暴雨逕流退水過程模擬 13
3.1-3　退水常數之即時檢定 14
3.2　洪峰後之滯洪蓄水特性 16
3.2.1　水位低於目標蓄水位之蓄水過程 16
3.2.2　水位高於目標蓄水位之放水過程 19
3.2.3　洪峰後各運轉階段之滯洪蓄水策略 20
3.3　洪峰後之滯洪蓄水分析條件 23
3.4　應用動態規劃制訂洪峰後最適滯洪與蓄水策略命題 27
第四章　實例分析 33
4.1　曾文水庫及其集水區概要 33
4.1.1　水庫概要 33
4.1.2　水庫集水區概要 35
4.2　曾文水庫進水流量歷線退水過程分析 36
4.3　洪峰後最適滯洪與蓄水策略研擬 46
4.4　洪峰後階段性調蓄策略之成效探討 54
第五章　結論與建議 63
5.1　結論 63
5.2　建議 64
參考文獻 65
自述 67

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