臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

情節探勘（Episode Mining）是資料探勘領域中一門新興且重要的研究議題，其主要目標為，在複雜的事件序列（complex event sequences）中，探勘由事件（events）所組合之情節（episodes）的頻率超過用戶指定的最小支持度門檻值（minimum support threshold）的所有集合，情節探勘已經被廣泛運用在股市波動分析、訊號異常偵測、生理訊號分析等應用中。而效益情節探勘（utility-based episode mining）為其中的一個新興研究議題，與傳統情節探勘問題不同之處在於，不只考慮複雜事件序列中情節之發生頻率，同時還考慮事件本身的效益屬性（例如：權重、價值、利潤等），因此，效益情節探勘技術更適用於醫學、商業等領域的智慧型專家系統之建置。雖然近年已經有一些相關研究被提出，但仍有以下不足之處：(1)使用者通常需要利用情節規則（episode rules），才能輕易地建立預測模型。然而透過兩階段方式（即是先探勘效益情節再轉換成規則）探勘效益情節規則（utility-based episode rules），可能會產生低效益的情節規則，而且執行上也是較沒效率的。(2)另外，使用者可能只想直接獲取前k個最高效益情節，來對資料進行分析。然而，現有方法都必須設定一個合適的最小支持度門檻值，才能獲取前k個最高效益情節，可是對於使用者來說，往往是很困難的。若門檻值設定過高，將產生太少情節；反之，可能產生太多不重要情節並降低執行效率。(3)透過情節（頻繁情節、效益情節）所建構出來的預測模型，也必須針對相關參數（parameters）和子模型（subsets of models）的選擇，進行同步最佳化，否則，訓練出來的模型也可能在預測能力和準確性方面不夠強健。
為了解決上述議題，本論文探討一系列新穎的效益情節探勘問題：(1)高效益情節規則探勘（high utility episode rule mining）；(2)前k個高效益情節探勘（top-k high utility episode mining）；(3)結合高效益情節與基因演算法之最佳化模型建置法（construction of an optimized model using high utility episodes and genetic algorithms）。
本論文的第一個研究主題，率先提出一套名為UBER-Mine演算法與名為UR-Tree為壓縮樹形結構，能夠有效率地找出高效益情節規則。此外，我們也把預測股票波動的挑戰性問題作為一個高效益情節規則之延伸應用，我們先設計一個以頻繁情節為基礎的股票投資模式，來探勘出多事件所組合的情節和股價資料的關聯性，進而預測股價的波動，簡稱SISTEM。接著，再把高效益情節規則應用於股票投資模式，作為一個新的擴展版本名為IV-UBER。實驗結果顯示這個理念除了成功應用於預測股票波動的挑戰性問題外，而且IV-UBER投資效益也優於既存最優的幾種方法。
本論文的第二個研究主題中，我們提出了一個高效率演算法名為TKUE，可以直接從複雜事件序列中有效率地探勘出前k個高效益情節。我們也進一步將該方法用於分析一個城市的天氣和時間對於腳踏車租借率的影響。實驗結果顯示TKUE除了具有良好的可擴展性外，也非常有效率地找出天氣、時間、與腳踏車租借率的關聯性。
本論文的第三個研究主題中，我們提出了一個名為HUEM-GAO的方法，結合高效益情節規則與基因演算法（genetic algorithm）來建構一個最佳化模型，並且應用到預測股票波動上。實驗結果顯示HUEM-GAO在平均回報與準確性皆能優於幾個著名的機器學習方法。
本論文根據應用上之需求及現今方法不足處，提出一系列新穎之效益情節探勘演算法，能有效地提供使用者在建置智慧型專家系統之重要元件。三個研究主題，除了在理論上分析所提方法之優缺點與限制外，並從真實世界的應用情境中，闡述所提方法在實務上之重要性，並透過一系列嚴謹的實驗驗證來說明所提出方法之優越性。本論文在學術理論上，大幅推進效益情節探勘領域所產生的高度影響性；在實際應用中，也能廣泛適用於各種領域之智慧型專家系統的建置上，進而對人類生活產生助益。

Frequent episode mining is a fundamental research topic in data mining, which refers to discovering all episodes that appear in complex event sequences with frequencies no less than a user-specified minimum support threshold. Frequent episode mining has been applied to various kinds of domains such as finance analysis, anomaly detection, and vital sign analysis. One emerging research issue in this field is utility-based episode mining, which differs from frequent episode mining in that it considers not only the basic properties of items (i.e., frequency) but also its utility (e.g., weight, profit, and value). Hence, it is a more effective kind of technique through which deeper insights can be gained. Although some studies have been devoted to the issue of utility-based episode mining, the following deficiencies have been identified from the existing methods: First, simply deriving rules from the set of high utility episodes may not produce useful or meaningful utility-based episode rules for users. In addition, it may be computationally costly to generate the rules using current methods. Second, for users, it is very difficult to specify an appropriate minimum utility threshold and to directly obtain the most valuable high utility episodes. This is because the complexity of utility-based complex event sequences involves multiple factors, e.g., the distribution of the events and utilities, the density of the complex event sequences, and the lengths of the episodes. Third, the prediction models constructed by the episodes (e.g., frequent episodes, high utility episodes) do not consider simultaneous optimization on the parameters and selection of model subsets. Hence, they might be ineffective in terms of profitability and accuracy.
To resolve the issues as mentioned above, this dissertation addresses a series of novel utility-based episode mining problems, including (1) high utility episode rule mining, (2) top-k high utility episode mining and (3) construction of an optimized model using high utility episodes and genetic algorithms.
In the first research topic, we propose an algorithm called UBER-Mine and a compact tree structure called UR-Tree in order to efficiently discover the complete set of high utility episode rules in complex event sequences. Furthermore, in order to further demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed method, we devise an episode-based investment model called SISTEM that is able to automatically determine multi-event episodes and associated profitable complex events embedded in stock price data. In addition, we further propose an extended version called IV-UBER constructed using high utility episode rules in the context of investment. The results show that high utility episode rules can be successfully applied to the challenging problem of predicting of stock movement, and IV-UBER outperforms several state-of-the-art methods.
In the second research topic, we propose an efficient algorithm called TKUE for efficiently discovering top-k high utility episodes from complex event sequences. Furthermore, in order to demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our method in real-life applications, we also conduct an analysis on bike rentals in a city. Experiments show that the TKUE has good scalability and can effectively discover the key events affecting bike rentals.
Regarding the third research topic, we propose a novel method named HUEM-GAO to generate a prediction model of high utility episode rules and use genetic algorithms to optimize this model. The problem of stock movement prediction is employed as an example application. The results show that our HUEM-GAO method outperforms well-known machine learning methods in terms of average return and precision.
The above research topics are proposed to provide users with important and concise results, and this dissertation contributes to advancing the research in utility-based episode mining as well as providing an effective solution for high-potential applications.

摘 要 I
ABSTRACT III
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS V
CONTENT VI
LIST OF FIGURES IX
LIST OF TABLES XI
1.1 MOTIVATION 1
1.2 OVERVIEW OF THE DISSERTATION 3
1.2.1 Discovering Utility-based Episode Rules in Complex Event Sequences 5
1.2.2 Efficient Mining of Top-k High Utility Episodes 6
1.2.3 Construction of an Optimized Model using High Utility Episodes and Genetic Algorithms 6
1.3 ORGANIZATION OF THE DISSERTATION 7
CHAPTER 2 BACKGROUND AND RELATED WORKS 9
2.1 FREQUENT EPISODE MINING 9
2.2 UTILITY PATTERN MINING 11
2.3 HIGH UTILITY EPISODE MINING 12
2.4 TOP-K HIGH UTILITY PATTERN MINING 15
2.5 TECHNICAL INDICATORS 16
CHAPTER 3 DISCOVERING UTILITY-BASED EPISODE RULES IN COMPLEX EVENT SEQUENCES 18
3.1 INTRODUCTION 18
3.2 PRELIMINARY 22
3.3 HIGH UTILITY EPISODE MINING 24
3.3.1 Mining Utility-based Episode Rules (UBER-Mine) 25
3.3.2 A Compact Tree Structure: UR-Tree 29
3.4 INVESTMENT APPLICATION 32
3.4.1 Investment Application by Frequent Episode Rules 32
3.4.2 Investment Application by Utility-based Episode Rules 38
3.5. EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION 39
3.5.1 Evaluation on Synthetic Dataset 41
3.5.2 Evaluation on Real Foodmart Dataset 42
3.5.3 Evaluation on Large ChainStore Dataset 42
3.5.4 Evaluation of Memory Consumption 43
3.5.5 Evaluation of Scalability Testing 43
3.5.6 Evaluation of the SISTEM and IV-UBER Algorithm on Real-world Stock Market Price Data 46
3.6 SUMMARY 52
CHAPTER 4 EFFICIENT MINING OF TOP-K HIGH UTILITY EPISODES 54
4.1 INTRODUCTION 54
4.2 PRELIMINARY AND DEFINITION 56
4.3 PROPOSED METHODOLOGY: TKUE 58
4.3.1 The basic TKUEBase approach 58
4.3.2 The TKUE algorithm 60
4.4 EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION 65
4.4.1 Evaluation on synthetic datasets 67
4.4.2 Evaluation on real datasets 69
4.4.3 Memory consumption 70
4.4.4 A Real-Life Application 72
4.5 SUMMARY 75
CHAPTER 5 CONSTRUCTION OF AN OPTIMIZED MODEL USING HIGH UTILITY EPISODES AND GENETIC ALGORITHMS 77
5.1 INTRODUCTION 77
5.2 PROPOSED METHOD 78
5.2.1 Event extraction 79
5.2.2 High utility episode mining and investment strategy 83
5.2.3 Model optimization via genetic algorithms 85
5.3 EXPERIMENTAL EVALUATION 87
5.4 SUMMARY 94
CHAPTER 6 CONCLUSIONS AND FUTURE WORKS 96
6.1 CONCLUSIONS 96
6.2 FUTURE WORKS 98
BIBLIOGRAPHY 100
PUBLICATIONS 105

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