臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本文研究主要探討蒙古國：國外直接投資、出口以及經濟成長(GDP)三者之間的因果關係。研究期間從1990至2011年，使用時間序列方法檢測；探討經濟成長(GDP)、出口值以及國外直接投資。探討近期的文獻與測試個別時間序列資料後，利用三個變數的VAR與VECM估計發現許多Granger因果關係。經濟含意分析在結論會被探討。第四章實證結果發現長期的經濟成長會影響出口與國外直接投資，不過短期內結果沒有顯現出三者之間的關係。且研究結果發現，國外直接投資與出口有長期的因果關係。換句話說，本文意味著經濟成長會導致國外直接投資出口增加。出口成長對外蒙古國是有效的；國外投資增加會影響出口增加；出口會影響國外直接投資。

The purpose of this paper is to study the causality relations between FDI, exports, and economic growth (GDP) in Mongolia. These indicators are investigated by using time-series from 1990 to 2011, examined the Granger causality relations between GDP, exports, and FDI for Mongolia. After reviewing the current literature and testing the properties of individual time-series data, estimated the VAR and VECM of the three variables to find various Granger causal relations.
The empirical results obtained in this study demonstrate that, economic growth will have its affect on Export and FDI in long period, but results didn’t show short run causality relationship between variables. Also it found out that FDI and Export have bidirectional long run causality relationship.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT………………………………………………...………………I
ABSTRACT……………………………………………………………………………...II
CHINESE………………………………………………………………………………...II
ABSTRACT………………………………………………………………………….….III
TABLE OF CONTENTS………………………………………………………………IV
LIST OF FIGURES..…………………………………………………………………….VI
LIST OF TABLES..………………………………………………..…………………...VII
CHAPTER I. INTRODUCTION……………………………………..………………...2
1.1 Research background……………………………………………………………...…..2
1.2 Research motivation……………………………………………………………...……5
1.3 Research purpose and objective…………………………..……………..…………….6
1.4 Research structure………………………………………………………………..…..10
CHAPTER II. LITERATURE REVIEW…………………………………………….11
2.1 Analytical framework………………………………………………………………..11
2.2 A review of recent empirical literature…………………………………….………...12
CHAPTER III. METHODOLOGY AND DATA……………………………………18
3.1 Research limitations……………………………………………………..…………...18
3.2 Unit root test…………………………………………………………………………19
3.3 Cointegration test………………………………………………………………….…20
3.3.1 Trace test statistics…………………………………………………………21
3.3.2 Maximum Eigenevalue test………………………………………………..22
3.4 Vector error correction model (VECM)…………………………………………..…22
V
CHAPTER IV. EMPIRICAL RESULT AND RESEARCH FINDINGS……...…...25
4.1 Results of augmented Dickey-Fuller unit root test……………………………..……27
4.2 Results of Johansen’s cointegration test……………………………………...…..….29
4.3 Estimates for VECM regression and granger causality test……………………...….30
CHAPTER V. DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION………………..…………….…35
5.1 Research implications……………………………………………….……………….35
5.2 Discussions and research findings…………………………………………………...35
5.3 Summary conclusion…………………………………………………………………37
5.4 Suggestions for further research……………………………………………………..39
REFERENCES…………………………………………………………………………VIII

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