臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

起降衝、偏出跑道的失事類型，一直以來都是航機於起降階段的主要事故原因。在我國飛安委員會所統計1997-2006年之29件飛航事故資料當中，衝偏出跑道便佔了8件之多，為所有事故類型中之最多件數者。
ICAO為提升整體飛航安全，透過系統安全之觀念，逐步從預防航空人員人為疏失、航空器機件故障及程序改善等，擴大到包含機場安全及飛航服務。隨著飛航安全與風險管理觀念上的演進，如何將風險控制在可接受的範圍，成了安全的實質意義；因風險為「損害發生之可能性」，同時涉及事故之發生機率、曝險程度及發生後之損害性；因此理想的風險管理，在於依事件的輕重緩急，排定事件的次序，優先處理損失較大與發生機率較高之事件。
各國民航主管機關囿於預算或財源，若過於注重個別機場的發展，將造成區域或國家整體發展的失衡，機場使用效益不彰等問題，因此越發重視攸關整體區域或國家發展的「機場系統計畫」。故而機場在增設、擴建或維護相關安全之設施時，在不同機場間作適宜之風險評估，以使資金及成本能作有效運用，便成了一值得深究的議題。特別是空側設施的跑道長度及機場安全區的設置，將直接影響航機起降安全、機場可使用機型及容量等，從ICAO近年修訂的標準及建議措施，將原本建議90m長的跑道端安全區改列為標準，並且增加所建議之跑道端安全區至Code3、4的240m，及Code 1、2的120m，可見一斑。
本研究在分析各機場跑道長度相對風險，是以各機場95年度各機型起降風險總和為指標，當中各機型之風險值為風險發生機率（Probability）、風險曝險度（Exposure）及風險損害性（Severity）之乘積。
在風險發生機率方面，本研究於國內初次藉由一英國學者Kirkland所建構之跑道剩餘長度（Excess Distance）影響落地衝出跑道之邏輯式迴歸模型（Logistic Regression Model），並綜合FAA所支持計畫中Wong建構之起降衝出跑道邏輯式迴歸模型，分析跑道可用長度（Distance Available）與航機起降之跑道需用長度（Distance Required）對航機衝出跑道之機率的影響。本研究所使用之綜合模型之係數受衝出跑道總體事故機率、機型大小及用途、平均側風、是否為國際線、樞紐機場等因素影響，本研究依據我國衝出跑道事故機率、機型及機場因素將其係數移轉並予以在地化（Localization）；跑道可用長度受各類型公告距離及跑道端安全區（RESA）之影響；跑道需用長度受機型、發動機、航機重量、機場氣溫、機場海拔、跑道縱坡度、跑道場面風、跑道濕滑情形等因素影響，由於取得微觀（Micro）上包含事故及非事故每架個別航機上述因素之即時情況實屬困難，亦是本研究之限制所在，故本研究只得以各機型及機場為群組之上述因素，以宏觀（Macro）之結果作為其分析基礎。
在風險曝險度方面，本研究以各機場各機型之起降架次作為曝險度之依據，並依跑道各積水情況之時間比例再細分各積水情況之曝險度；在風險損害性方面，本研究將衝出跑道事故損害各個項目，包含航機損壞、人員傷亡、行李貨物損害賠償、燃油損失等，依航機國際市場交易價格、航機事故全毀及實質損傷率、航機起降階段事故人員傷亡率、人員傷亡及行李貨物賠償之國際慣例及國內法規、燃油價格等，同步化整為起飛及落地衝出跑道事故新台幣損失總金額。
在以95年度資料分析各機場之風險後，本研究並以增減主要相關因素，包括預估5年後使用機型與起降架次變動、承載率變動、機場溫度變化、跑道縱坡度調整、機場平均逆風改變、跑道兩端起降頻率變化、跑道積水時數變化、邏輯式回歸跑道剩餘長百分比之係數n變動、邏輯式回歸截距值m變動等，進行資料敏感度分析。

Runway overrun and excursion have always been the major causes of aircraft accidents during landing and take-off phases. According to the statistics of ASC, these types of accidents shared 8 out of 29 domestic accidents during 1997-2006, the highest number among all types of accidents.
In order to improve the worldwide flight safety, ICAO emphasizes not only on preventing human errors and system failures but also on improving the safety of airports and air traffic services, which enlarge the conception of system safety from human, software, and hardware factors to environmental factors. Along with the evolution of concepts in flight safety and risk management, how to control risk within an acceptable level turns out to be quite significant in the idea of safety. The meaning of risk refers to “the likelihood of severity,” involving with the probability, exposure, and severity of events. Therefore, the ideal risk management lies on ordering the priority of events according to their exposure, severity and probability.
However, because of the limitation of budget or financial resources, the authorities of civil aviation can’t focus on the development of “each” airport which results in imbalanced development of overall region or nation and inefficient utility of airports, thus “the plan of airport system,” related to the regional or national development, being much emphasized. In other words, different airports should undertake adequate risk assessment while increasing, expanding or maintaining facilities related to safety so that the capital and cost can be utilized efficiently, especially in the runway length and airport safety area in airside facilities, which will directly influence the flight safety during landing and take-off.
The analyses of relative risk on runway length of major airports in Taiwan are according to the sum value of product of landing and take-off risk probability, exposure, and severity of different aircraft types of each airport in the year of 2006.
In the aspect of risk probability, this research coordinates both Kirkland’s logistic regression model of landing overrun affected by the runway excess distance and Wong’s logistic regression model of takeoff/landing overrun sponsored by FAA in order to analyze aircraft overrun probability influenced by the runway distance available and runway distance required.
The coefficients of the models are influenced by the rate of overall overrun accidents, the size and usage of different aircraft types, the average crosswind etc., and are transferred and localized according to the probability of overrun accidents occurred in Taiwan, aircraft types and airports.
The runway distance available is affected by the different types of announced runway distance and runway end safety area (RESA);
The runway distance required is affected by the types of aircrafts and engines, aircraft weights, the temperatures, elevations and headwinds of airports, the slopes and wet conditions of runway etc. Due to the difficulties of collecting the updated and micro data of all above-mentioned factors including accident and non-accident aircrafts, this research analyzes the risks of airports by the macro statistics or representative data.
In the aspect of risk exposure, this research takes the numbers of departures and arrivals of each type of aircraft in each airport as its basis, and classifies the exposure by the time proportion of different slippery runway conditions.
In the aspect of risk severity, this research converts the factors influencing severity of runway overrun as the sum of risk cost, such as the damage of aircraft, causalities of passengers and personnel, indemnification for baggage and cargos, and the loss of fuel etc., according to the average prices of aircrafts in international markets, the rates of hull-loss and substantial, the rates of fatalities and injuries, the indemnification regulated in international conventions and domestic regulations, and the price of fuel etc.

摘 要 ii
Abstract iii
誌 謝 v
目 錄 vi
表目錄 viii
圖目錄 x
第一章 緒 論 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 研究範圍與限制 1
1.3 研究方法 2
1. 文獻回顧及確立研究對象 2
2. 模式建立及現況資料蒐集 2
3. 風險分析結果 5
4. 結論與建議 5
1.4 研究流程 6
第二章 文獻回顧 7
2.1機場安全問題之緣起 7
2.1.1 全球航空運量之快速成長 7
2.1.2 對飛航安全之重視 8
2.1.3 全球機場大量擴建 11
2.1.4 機場安全的重要性 13
2.1.5 機場安全要求之沿革 16
2.1.6 起降衝/偏出跑道的問題 18
2.2 安全管理運用之緣起 21
2.2.1 安全管理觀念的演進 22
2.2.2 風險管理觀念的演進與風險處置方式 24
2.2.3 跑道安全問題於風險管理之運用 26
第三章 研究方法與資料整理分析 30
3.1 我國各主要民航機場現況 30
3.1.1 我國各民航機場分級與屬性 30
3.1.2 我國各民航機場運量 31
3.1.3 本研究擬分析之我國民航機場 32
3.2 我國各主要機場跑道分類 33
3.2.1 我國各主要機場跑道之機場參考代碼 36
3.2.2 我國各主要機場跑道之飛機大小分類碼 37
3.3 風險發生率分析 37
3.3.1 機場安全區之意義 43
3.3.2 可用跑道長 44
3.3.2 需用跑道長 46
3.3.2.1使用機型及作業需求 46
3.3.2.2機場環境 50
3.4 風險曝險度 63
3.5 風險損害性 66
3.5.1航機受損之損失金額 67
3.5.1.1 航機價格 67
3.5.1.2 航機受損情況 68
3.5.2 旅客傷亡之賠償金額 70
3.5.2.1 旅客傷亡賠償相關法規 70
3.5.2.2 旅客傷亡比例與人數 71
3.5.2.3 小結 73
3.5.3 組員傷亡撫卹金額 74
3.5.4 旅客行李損壞賠償金額 75
3.5.5 貨物損壞賠償金額 76
3.5.6 載油損失金額 77
第四章 資料敏感度與模擬分析 78
4.1 跑道長度影響風險值比較結果 78
4.2 機場5年後使用機型與起降架次變動 85
4.3 載客率與載貨率的變動 102
4.4 機場溫度變化 113
4.5 跑道縱坡度調整 118
4.6 起降逆風改變 129
4.7 跑道積水時數增加 139
4.8 邏輯式回歸截距m值調整 150
4.9 邏輯式回歸跑道剩餘長係數n值調整 160
第五章 結論與建議 171
參考文獻 173
自 述 178

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