臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

摘要
牛海綿狀腦病(Bovine spongiform encephalopathy; BSE)，為國際貿易爭端之主要議題之一，而風險分析為建立國內檢疫保護水準及調和國際貿易爭端之主要科學參考依據。因此，本研究分析乃依據1980年後自BSE發生地區輸入臺灣牛隻和肉骨粉之數量發展成BSE之機率，進行量化風險評估。首先利用病原特性與國內牛隻屠宰作業、化製過程及反芻獸飼料添加肉骨粉情況，建構成BSE進入臺灣反芻獸飼料之風險評估路徑，依據1980~2004年自BSE疫區輸入牛隻及肉骨粉數量，及疫區BSE盛行率。利用EXECL 2002及@RISK軟體以Latin Hypercube抽樣方法重複測定10,000次，依此估算風險分析值的平均值及百分90%之信賴區間。臺灣自1980年來自BSE疫區加拿大、日本及美國共輸入活牛27,820頭及自英國、荷蘭、義大利、加拿大、丹麥、日本、奧地利及美國等8國疫區公告前輸入肉骨粉共1,196,846公噸。結果顯示，由BSE疫區輸入活牛，若有大於一頭以上之BSE牛因此進入台灣反芻獸飼料之機率為34.037×10-6 。在肉骨粉風險方面其機率為26.5037×10-6。合計平均風險機率為60.5407×10-6，其最小可能風險機率為1.225×10-7，而最大可能風險機率為1.0508×10-3。其中最大輸入風險為1989-1990年間自英輸入肉骨粉之25.6718×10-6，佔總輸入風險之42.40 %，為我國最大之輸入風險。配合我國之風險管理及加強監控，現今之潛存國內BSE病原因子，發展成BSE之風險是相當低微的，但仍需持續加強BSE之風險管理措施及化製廠交叉污染管制。

Abstract
Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) is one of the major concerns of the international trade. To solve the dispute of the international trade, risk analysis provides the important scientific database for setting the protective levels of measurement and can homogenize the dispute. The aim of the risk assessment was to evaluate the probability of risk of developing BSE in Taiwan, through the importation of live cattle/cows and meat and bone-meal (MBM) from BSE prevalent areas between 1980 and 2004. The simulations were performed using two softwares, Excel 2002 (Microsoft Corporation) and @Risk (Palisade Corporation) with Latin hypercube sampling technique for 10,000 times to estimate 90% confidence interval of the risk. Since 1980, there had been 27,820 live cattle/cows imported from Canada, Japan and United States of America and 1,196,846 metric tons of MBM from Great Britain, the Netherlands, Italy, Canada, Denmark, Japan, Austria and United States of America. The results show
that the probable risk of contamination of ruminant feed with developing >1 case of BSE via the importation of live cattle/cows was 34.037×10-6. The probable risk of contamination of ruminant feed via the importation of MBM was 26.5037 x 10-6,The average of total probable risk was 60.5407×10-6, the minimum probable risk was 1.225×10-7 and the maximun probable risk was 1.0508×10-3. The importation of MBM from Britain between 1989 and 1990 was the major source of the imported risk. In accordance with the result and the risk management, the introduction of BSE agent into ruminant feed chain and developing BSE in Taiwan is relative minimum. However, enforcement the risk management and the prevention of cross contamination in rendering procedures are the major subjects to prevent the occurrence of BSE in Taiwan.

目錄
中文摘要 ---------------------------------------------------------- Ⅰ
英文摘要 ---------------------------------------------------------- Ⅱ
目錄 -------------------------------------------------------------- Ⅲ
圖次 -------------------------------------------------------------- Ⅴ
表次 -------------------------------------------------------------- Ⅵ
附錄 -------------------------------------------------------------- Ⅶ
第一章 緒言-------------------------------------------------------- 01
第二章 文獻探討---------------------------------------------------- 04
第一節 牛海綿狀腦病之歷史------------------------------------------- 04
一、前言---------------------------------------------------------- 04
二、英國爆發牛海綿狀腦病之經過與處理--------------------------------- 05
三、牛海綿狀腦病與人變異性庫賈氏症之關聯性（英國）---------------------09
四、牛海綿狀腦病—英國政府肉骨粉海外輸出------------------------------10
第二節 牛海綿狀腦之病原體 Prion--------------------------------------10
第三節 牛海綿狀腦病之簡介------------------------------------------- 12
一、牛海綿狀腦病的病原、類型、症狀及診斷 ------------------------------12
二、傳染性海綿狀腦病病原-Prion -------------------------------------15
三、Prion Diseases之感染途徑 ---------------------------------------16
四、Prion Diseases主要症狀 -----------------------------------------17
五、Prion Diseases之診斷 -------------------------------------------17
第四節 臺灣針對牛海綿狀腦病之處理 ------------------------------------18
一、牛海綿狀腦病—行政院農業委員會BSE檢疫禁令--------------------------18
二、牛海綿狀腦病—行政院衛生署禁令----------------------------------- 22
第五節 臺灣地區牛海綿狀腦病和新變異庫賈氏病的現況 -------------------- 23
一、牛海綿狀腦病 ---------------------------------------------------23
二、人類新變異庫賈氏症----------------------------------------------23
第三章 材料和方法 --------------------------------------------------26
第一節 輸入因子定義：活體牛隻及肉骨粉-------------------------------- 26
第二節 風險因子定義 ------------------------------------------------27
第三節 自BSE疫區輸入牛隻發展成BSE牛進入反芻獸飼料污染的風險------------29
第四節 自BSE疫區輸入肉骨粉造成台灣每單位反芻獸飼料污染之機率-----------31
第五節 臺灣輸入牛隻及肉骨粉管制情形----------------------------------36
第六節 由輸入活牛及肉骨粉進入臺灣反芻獸飼料引發BSE之風險評估-----------37
一、輸入活牛風險流程 -----------------------------------------------37
二、輸入肉骨粉風險流程----------------------------------------------39
三、量化風險評估 unrestricted risk estimate ----------------------- 40
(一)、風險計算模式------------------------------------------------- 40
(二)、輸入活牛發生0,1,2,3,…頭BSE牛造成台灣每單位反芻獸飼料污染之機率---43
1.進口活牛發展BSE牛的可能性AR1---------------------------------------43
2.BSE牛繁殖年齡終了時經死亡或屠宰後進入化製廠的機率AR2-----------------44
3.化製廠製造流程交叉污染的機率AR3------------------------------------45
4.進入反芻獸飼料的機率AR4-------------------------------------------46
5.輸入牛隻於繁殖年齡終止後進入屠宰化製的年度--------------------------49
(三)、輸入BSE污染之肉骨粉造成台灣每單位反芻獸飼料污染之機率------------50
1.輸入臺灣肉骨粉受BSE污染之機率BR1-----------------------------------50
2.輸入受污染肉骨粉進入反芻獸飼料之機率BR2-----------------------------50
第四章 結果---------------------------------------------------------63
第一節 輸入活牛及肉骨粉進入臺灣反芻獸飼料風險評估值-------------------- 63
第二節 BSE風險因子敏感度分析 ----------------------------------------64
第五章 討論 --------------------------------------------------------70
參考文獻 -----------------------------------------------------------75

圖次
圖2-1 SPS協定下歷年來貿易關切有關貿易議題分類--------------------------25
圖2-2 動物健康及人畜共通傳染病有關貿易議題 --------------------------- 25
圖2-3 SPS協定下歷年來貿易關切有關貿易議題分類 ------------------------ 25
圖4-1 1980年臺灣年度PDE影響因子之迴歸敏感度分析龍捲風曲線圖------------ 69
圖4-2 1981年臺灣年度PDE影響因子之迴歸敏感度分析龍捲風曲線圖------------ 69

表次
表3-1 1980-2004年自全球輸入臺灣肉骨粉、活體牛隻年度統計-----------------51
表3-2 臺灣乳牛繁殖年齡統計 -------------------------------------------52
表3-3 1980-2004年自BSE疫區進口肉骨粉之統計----------------------------53
表3-4 發生BSE國家(地區)發生數量及發生率(OIE) -------------------------54
表3-5 1980-2004年自加拿大、美國、日本、澳大利亞、紐西蘭輸入臺灣活體
牛隻統計--------------------------------------------------------55
表3-6 臺灣牛海綿狀腦病監測計畫----------------------------------------56
表3-7 臺灣牛隻族群之屠宰頭數及屠宰重量---------------------------------57
表3-8 臺灣牛隻族群品種、數量－死亡頭數 --------------------------------58
表3-9 臺灣配合飼料供給量－總供應量------------------------------------59
表3-10 近五年DHI戶的量與生乳品質--------------------------------------60
表3-11 臺灣牛隻族群品種、數量－年底頭數 -------------------------------61
表3-12 臺灣牛隻族群品種、數量－生產頭數 -------------------------------62
表4-1 自加拿大進口繁殖用活牛發展成0,1,2,3隻BSE牛在繁殖年限終止後經死亡
或屠宰進入臺灣牛飼料食物鏈之平均機率------------------------------65
表4-2 自日本進口繁殖用活牛發展成0,1,2,3隻BSE牛在繁殖年限終止後經死亡或
屠宰進入臺灣牛飼料食物鏈之平均機率-------------------------------66
表4-3 自美國進口繁殖用活牛發展成0,1,2,3隻BSE牛在繁殖年限終止後經死亡或
屠宰進入臺灣牛飼料食物鏈之平均機率-------------------------------66
表4-4 輸入BSE污染之肉骨粉造成台灣每單位牛飼料污染之機率-----------------67
表4-5 臺灣與具有BSE感受性因子(事件)接觸引發疾病爆發之迴歸敏感度分析
結果影響因子排行----------------------------------------------- 68
附錄1 Mao1(year)程式碼----------------------------------------------82

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