臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

近年來穩定外匯市場一直是各國政府施政的重點，有鑒於固定匯率實施必須擁有大量外匯存底支撐，以免影響本國經濟體系；而實施浮動匯率制度下，不僅有匯率波動不確定性，同時會使得進、出口商增加匯兌風險，所以各國政府及經濟學家都在尋求最適合的匯率制度。
本文延伸Krugman（1991）的模型，建立一個小型開放經濟體系，包含商品市場、貨幣市場及外匯市場，再加入民眾對匯率與商品價格的兩個預期變數，利用圖解的方式，探討一個資本不完全移動的小型開放經濟體系，當政府設立「匯率目標區」是否可達到穩定外匯市場的效果。另亦探討當政府實施匯率目標區，有部分民眾相信政府執行政策之決心，有另一部分民眾不相信，則經濟體系面對相同之干擾來源，是否會因而產生不同之結果？
經由本文分析，我們發現：
1.當經濟體系出現干擾時，政府若設立匯率目標區，匯率是否存在蜜月效果，取決於「預期的匯率變動量對匯率之影響」與「預期的商品價格變動量對匯率之影響」與資本移動程度相對大小而定。
2.當經濟體系出現干擾時，政府若設立匯率目標區，有部分民眾相信政府執行政策之決心，有另一部分民眾不相信，則當民眾愈不相信政府對政策執行的宣示時，將會加重匯率波動的幅度，而且隨著不信任程度的改變也會造成商品價格波動幅度有所增減。

Stable foreign exchange market in recent years has been the focus of national government policy, given the implementation of a fixed exchange rate must have a lot of foreign exchange reserves support, so as not to affect the national economic system. The implementation of the floating exchange rate, not only the uncertainty of exchange rate fluctuations, but also increase foreign exchange risk of importers and exporters, so governments and economists are looking for the most appropriate exchange rate system.
This paper is based on the Krugman (1991) model and add the expectations of people on the exchange rate and commodity prices in a small open economy which including commodity markets, money market and foreign exchange markets, to study if a government can stabilize the foreign exchange market on an imperfect capital moving small open economy system by setting up a "exchange rate target zone". This study is also analyzed the case: when a government implemented the exchange rate target zone with the same economic shock but some people trust the government determined to implement policies and some people don’t.
According to the analysis, we found that:
1. When some economic shocks happen, a government set up the exchange rate target zone may not have the exchange rate honeymoon effect. It depends on "the expected amount of exchange rate changes" and "the expected amount of commodity price changes” to the amount of capital movement.
2. When some economic shocks happen, a government set up the exchange rate target zone but some people trust that the government determined to implement policies and some people don’t, will increase the exchange rate volatility. The more distrust of the determination of the policy the more variance of exchange rate and also impact of commodity price volatility.

中文摘要...................................................i
英文摘要..................................................ii
目錄.....................................................iii
圖目錄....................................................iv
表目錄.....................................................v
第一章 緒論................................................1
第一節 研究動機與目的.......................................1
第二節 本文架構........................................... 2
第二章 文獻回顧............................................4
第三章 理論模型............................................9
第一節 模型建立............................................9
第二節 模型分析...........................................11
第三節 匯率目標區與外匯市場干擾.............................12
第四節 匯率目標區之可信度分析...............................22
第四章 結論...............................................28
附錄......................................................30
參考文獻 .................................................32

一、中文部分：
李心怡（1997），《農產品價格管制與物價穩定》，國立中正大學國際經濟 研究所碩士論文。
呂麗蓉、戴孟宜、胡士文、廖培賢（2008），「農產品市場干擾與最適農產品價格目標區」，農業與經濟，40，1-44。
侯美惠（2004），「貨幣政策、產出目標區與股價」，經濟研究，40：2，145-180。
黃秋瓊、胡士文（2008），「匯率目標區和股價之穩定」，交大管理學報，28：1，169-203。
莊梅真（2002），《浮動匯率制度下目標區政策與商品價格之穩定》，逢甲大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
陳美君（2009-09-29），工商時報。
鄒巧欣（2004），《農產品價格目標區與匯率的波動》，逢甲大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
賴杰瑞（2007），《物價與匯率雙重預期下最適匯率目標區之探討－以總合供給面干擾為例》，東海大學經濟研究所碩士論文。
賴景昌、王葳、胡士文（2000），「目標區與農產品價格的穩定：小型開放經濟之分析」，農業經濟叢刊，6：1，33-66。
賴景昌（2007），《國際金融理論基礎篇》，（華泰文化事業股份有限公司出版）。
賴景昌、謝智源（2001），《邊界干預措施之不確定性分析》，未發表手稿。
二、英文部分：
Bertola, G. and R. Caballero (1992), “Target Zones and Realignments,” American Economic Review, 82, 520-536.
Blanchard, O. J. (1981), “Output, the Stock Market, and Interest Rates,” American Economic Review, 71, 132-143.
Frankel, J. A. and C. A. Rodriguez (1982), “Exchange Rate Dynamics and the Overshooting Hypothesis,” International Monetary Fund Staff Papers, 139, 1-30.
Frankel, J. A. (1986), “Expectations and Commodity Price Dynamics：The Overshooting Model,” American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 68, 344-348.
Flood, R. P. and P. M. Garber (1991), “The Linkage between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Model of Exchange Rates,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 1367-1372.
Klein, M. W. (1990), “Playing with the Band：Dynamic Effects of Target Zones in an Open Economy,” International Economic Review, 31, 757-772.
Krugman, P. (1991), “Target Zones and Exchange Rate Dynamics,” Quarterly Journal of Economics, 106, 669-682.
Lai, C. C. and J. J. Chang (2001), “A Pedagogical Note on Price Target Zones,” Journal of Economic Education, 32, 369-380.
Lai, C. C., J. Chang and C. R. Fang (2002), “Are Honeymoon Effects Valid in the Presence of Both Exchange Rate and Price Expectations？A Graphical Analysis,” manuscript.
Lai, C. C., S. W. Hu and V. Wang (1996), “Commodity Price Dynamics and Anticipated Shocks,” American Journal of Agricultural Economic, 78, 982-990.
Miller, M. and P. Weller (1995), “Stochastic Saddle point Systems Stabilization policy and the Stock Market,” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 19, 279-302.
Suherland, A. (1995), “Monetary and Real Shocks and the Optimal Target Zone,” European Economic Review, 39, 161-172.
Williamson, J (1983), The Exchange Rate System, Washington DC：Institute for International Economics.