臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究主要目的在處理二項關於道路運輸安全相關政策效果評估之主題，一項為衡量遏阻個體駕駛人之不當駕駛行為之肇事防治政策之時間效果，另一項為國道客運市場解除管制政策之安全衝擊評估。前者之研究主軸在於以生命週期理論為基礎，發展出衡量肇事防治政策之一般遏阻效果與其時間變異之方法。此一部份研究係以酒後駕車列入刑法公共危險罪政策在台北市之實施成效作為實例進行理論驗證工作。後者之研究主軸則以Reason(1997) 提出之組織肇事理論為礎石，發展出一套可衡量解除管制政策對個別運輸公司安全績效影響之理論架構。
應用生命週期理論為基礎發展出描述肇事防治政策效果之可能變化型態之理論。配合使用因果關係分析技術 (Causal factor analysis techniques) 分別以虛擬變數和時間變數方法發展衡量酒後駕車列入刑法公共危險罪政策之平均效果與時間變異效果之模式。經模式校估結果顯示，以時間變數為基礎之模式優於虛擬變數為基礎之模式。在控制執法與酒類產品消費因子下，本研究獲致酒後駕車列入刑法公共危險罪政策執行二十個月內之時間效果變化狀態。本研究結果顯示安全干預政策之時間變異效果確實存在。此外，我們進一步探討使用不同觀察時間長度進行政策成效衡量所可能產生之謬誤。此部分之研究發現提供政策評估研究工作上非常寶貴之資訊，並對相關研究之分析者提出警告，必須謹慎地解釋其評估研究之結果，以免因誤解導致不適當的結論。同時，我們並建議政府應該在安全改善政策執行期間持續進行監視工作，而非經過一段相當時間後才進行評估工作。
本研究在第二部分以Reason(1997)所提出之組織肇事理論作為基礎，發展出一理論架構以模化運輸公司之安全績效及其組織和環境因子間之關係。台灣地區國道客運市場解除管制政策之實施提供一個絕佳的機會以回應一項非常重要的研究議題：是否解除管制會對安全產生負面衝擊？此研究主題屬於一項橫斷面研究（Cross-section study），係透過比較加入提供國道客運服務之公司與未加入提供國道客運服務公司之安全表現來評估解除管制政策是否對安全產生負面效果。研究結果顯示在解除管制後成立的國道客運公司與其他之前已成立的客運公司間之安全績效並無顯著差異。但是提供國道客運服務者之公司無論新舊都比其他舊的未參加提供國道客運之公司具更高的肇事率。此係所有提供國道客運服務之公司在該項業務上幾乎都是新手所致。此外，公司組織因子與其他環境因子對於其安全績效具顯著影響。此研究成果不僅可以協助政府辨識哪些公司是屬於高肇事風險公司，並在設計更妥適之策略或安全管制措施上提供非常寶貴的資訊。最後，我們研擬適當的安全管制措施以有效提升客運公司安全績效。

This study aims to deal two related issues about measuring the safety effects of transport safety-related policies- the temporal effects of accident prevention policies focused on individual drivers’ behaviors and the safety impacts of deregulation of intercity bus industry on individual bus companies. The former is essentially addressed on measuring the general deterrence of the policy and its temporal variation based on the life cycle theory. The implementation of criminal sanctions for drunk driving (CSFDD) in Taipei City is then taken as an empirical example to determine whether the time variability of the safety effect really existed for the CSFDD. The latter aims to determine the safety impacts of deregulation on individual transport companies based on Reason’s organizational accident theory (1997). Causal factor analysis techniques are employed to investigate the issues.
Life cycle theory is applied to describe the potential changing patterns of the safety effects of the accident reduction policy. Causal factor analysis techniques with dummy-based and time-based specifications are developed to measure the average effects and temporal effects of the CSFDD policy. The time-based specification model was demonstrated to be better than the dummy-based specification model in evaluating the effect of safety policy on reducing the alcohol-related crashes here. Excluding the influences brought about by enforcement and alcohol consumption, the safety effect pattern over time for the CSFDD policy was explored in an observation period of 20 months following its implementation. We found that there existed a temporal variation for the intervening policy. In addition, we explore the potential fallacies in measuring the safety effects of the policy with different observational periods. The findings of this chapter provide a set of valuable information for policy evaluation and alert the analysts to interpret their evaluation results carefully to avoid making an inappropriate conclusion. Also, we suggest that monitoring the effects of the policy along with its implementation time period may be more beneficial than evaluating the effect within some given observational time period.
Organizational accident theory proposed by Reason (1997) is applied to develop a framework relating the safety performance to organizational and environmental factors for a bus companies. Deregulation of intercity bus industry in Taiwan provides an opportunity to answer the important research issue concerning whether deregulation would bring negative impacts on safety performance. This issue is a cross-section study to determine whether deregulation has negative impacts on individual bus companies from a comparison of the safety performance of the bus companies with providing intercity bus services and those without providing intercity bus services. The results show that the new established bus companies in the era of deregulation have indifferent safety performance with other old bus companies. The novice operators in intercity bus services have experienced poor safety performance than those old bus companies without providing intercity bus services. The organizational factors and other environmental factor also appear significant effects on the safety performance of individual bus companies. The results not only provide authorities to identify which companies have higher accident risk, but also offer very valuable information to design more appropriate strategies or safety regulations on improving safety performance of bus companies. Finally, we suggest some safety regulation policies be conducted in conjunction with the implementation of economic deregulation in order to pursue a better safety performance by the bus transport industry as a whole, rather than just prevent the deterioration of the existing safety performance.

Abstract (In Chinese) i
Abstract iii
Aknowledgements (In Chinese) vi
Contents vii
List of Figures xi
List of Tables xii
List of Tables xii
CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1
1.1 Research Motivations 1
1.2 Research Objectives 4
1.3 Research Approach 5
1.4 Overview of Thesis 6
1.5 Research Contributions 7
CHAPTER 2 Literature Review 8
2.1 The evaluation of accident prevention measures in literature 8
2.2 The safety impacts of deregulation on transportation 12
CHAPTER 3 Safety Effects of Drunk Driving Prevention Policy over Time 14
3.1 A Conceptual Framework for the Life Cycle of Safety Policy 14
3.2 Considerations for Model Formulation 17
3.3 Criminal Sanction for Drunk Driving in Taipei City 20
3.4 Model Specifications 22
3.5 Model Estimation Results and Interpretations 26
3.5.1 Dummy-based specification models 26
3.5.2 Time-based specification models 28
3.5.3 Comparisons between dummy-based and time-based specification models 31
3.6 Summary 33
CHAPTER 4 Potential Fallacies in Measuring the Effects of Drunk Driving Prevention Policy 36
4.1 Potential Fallacies of Applying Pair-t Tests to Measure the Policy Effect 37
4.2 Potential Fallacies of Applying the Causal Factor Analysis Method With a Dummy Variable to Measure The Policy Effect 39
4.3 Applying the Time-Based Causal Factor Analysis Method in Measuring The Temporal Variation of The Policy Effect 43
4.4 Discussion 46
4.5 Summary 49
CHAPTER 5 Safety Performance of Bus Companies after Deregulation 52
5.1 A Conceptual Framework for the Safety Performance of Bus Companies 53
5.2 Deregulation of the Intercity Passenger Transportation Service in Taiwan 55
5.3 Measurement of the Variables in Model Formulation 57
5.3.1 Measurement of safety performance 57
5.3.2 Measurement of environmental factors 58
5.3.3 Measurement of organizational factors 59
5.4 Data Collection, Analysis and Model Specification 61
5.4.1 Data collection 61
5.4.2 Data analysis 62
5.5 Model estimation results 67
5.6 Interpretations and discussions 72
5.7 Summary 75
CHAPTER 6 Conclusion and future study 79
6.1 Conclusion 79
6.2 Future study 83
REFERENCES 85
Appendix A: The alcohol-related fatal crashes data 91
Appendix B: The questionnaire for bus companies 92
Appendix C: The List for Replied Bus companies 94
Vita….. 95
Vita( In Chinese) 96

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