臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

自2008年，政府開放大陸觀光客來台旅遊，以休閒為目的之旅客人數高速成長，台灣觀光旅遊業一片榮景，台灣地區國際觀光旅館之研究亦成當代顯學。本研究臆測影響台北國際商務旅館之經營效率之五項部份重要解釋變數，對旅館之經營效率(以住房率OCR表示)，可能存在一組上下不對稱之非線性（nonlinear）關係，為驗證此一門檻效果是否存在，本研究以縱橫門檻迴歸模型加以實證，惟實證之結果未能拒絕無門檻效果之虛無假設，使評價國際觀光飯店經營績效之計量模型回復到一般之多元迴歸模型示。然而，本研究對於傳統線性迴歸模型之實證，得到不錯之結果，並將其轉化為易於瞭解之策略義涵：在搭機來台旅客人數不易掌控，旅館房間數(規模)短期之內不易擴充之情況下，對住房率有具有顯著正向影響力之四個策略性變數是平均房價(PRI)、休閒目的旅客佔旅客總數比率(POT)、團體旅客佔旅客總數比率(GOT)及客房部員工對總員工比率(ROT)；PRI及ROT對住房率顯著為正之影響，意指台北國際觀光旅館吸引旅客的關鍵因素在與平均房價同步成長的客房部門人力，足以印證發展「高價位/高品質」之服務，乃是正確的策略方向；POT與GOT對住房率顯著為正之影響，意指台北國際觀光旅館之行銷策略，應導向以休閒為目的之團體旅客群，此一策略涵義與當前(2010年)，台灣政府當局全面開放大陸旅客來台之政策方向不謀而合；以高品質服務支持之高價位房價策略，招徠以休閒為目的之團體旅客群，是台北國際觀光旅館業提升經營績效當務之急，管理階層不可不知。

Since 2008, Taiwan authorities has allowed mainland tourists to visit Taiwan. The number of the tourists for leisure has grew up fast, and that growth brought Taiwan tourism into a ‘boom’ and also the study of international tourist hotels in Taiwan become the contemporary popular doctrine.
This study hypothesize that there exist threshold effects of five important explanatory variables on the business performance of Taipei international business hotel. Therefore, this study empirically employs the panel threshold regression model elaborated by Hansen (1999) to fulfill the aims of this research. However, the empirical results failed to reject the null hypothesis of no threshold, so that we apply the traditional multiple regression model for our further evaluation for the business performance of international tourist hotels. The significant findings of our traditional LS provide an easy understanding of strategy implications.
In the situation that it is difficult to control the number of the inbound passengers to Taiwan and that the number of hotel rooms (size) is not easy to expand in the short term, the empirical results show significant positive effects of four strategy variables, PRI、POT、GOT and ROT, on housing rates, the proxy for business performance of international hotel. The positive effects of PRI and ROT on housing rates implies that the higher price of the average room fee comes with the better service for entertaining the hotel guests and thus attracting more tourists to international tourist hotels in Taipei. This evidence is in conformity with the “high price / high quality” managerial strategy. The significantly positive effects of POT and GOT on housing rates implies that the marketing strategy of international tourist hotel in Taipei should be oriented by the group tourists.
The implication of the above strategies is in accordance with the pllicy nowadays by Taiwan authorities for allowing mainland visitors to Taiwan. The strategy that high quality services come along with the high price of room fee bringing more tour groups seems an urgent matter to managerial staffs for increasing the business performance.of Taipei international tourist hotel.

目 錄


第一章 緒 論 1
第一節 研究背景及動機 1
第二節 研究目的 6
第三節 研究架構 8
第二章 文獻探討 10
第一節 國際觀光旅館經營績效相關文獻 11
第二節 縱橫門檻迴歸模型之文獻探討 14
第三節 文獻回顧 17
第三章 研究方法 20
第一節 變數及樣本 20
第二節　實證模型 23
第三節 縱横門檻模型設定 26
第四節 多元迴歸模型 34
第四章 實證結果與分析 35
第一節　門檻變數之實證結果 35
第二節 線性迴歸之結果 38
第五章 結 論 40
參考文獻 42
中文文獻 42
英文文獻 43

表目錄
表3-1　變數之定義、符號(縮寫)及說明 21
表3-2 變數之敘述統計 21
表4-1 匯率(EXR)對住房率(OCR)之門檻效果檢定 36
表4-2 平均房價(PRI)對住房率(OCR)之門檻效果檢定 36
表4-3 休閒目的旅客佔旅客總數比率(POT)對住房率(OCR)之門檻效果檢定 36
表4-4 團體旅客佔旅客總數比率(GOT)對住房率(OCR)之門檻效果檢定 37
表4-5 客房部員工對總員工比率(ROT)對住房率(OCR)之門檻效果檢定 37
表4-6 線性迴歸之結果 38

圖目錄
圖1-1 來台觀光主要住宿旅館類型比例 2
圖1-2 來台旅客對各行下塌處之滿意度 3
圖1-3 本文之研究架構 9

參考文獻
中文文獻
何泰森 (2003) ，台灣觀光旅館技術效率之研討－資料包絡分析法之應用，政治大學經濟研究所碩士論文，台北。
吳明峯 (2005) ，貨幣供給變動與股市報酬之非線性關聯性研究－縱橫門檻效果分析，淡江大學財務金融研究所碩士論文，台北。
黃筱雲 (2007) 不同股市行情下共同基金持股比率與股價之非線性關聯性研究-縱橫門檻效果分析，淡江大學財務金融研究所碩士論文，台北。
陳勁甫、王婷瑜 (2003) ，國際觀光旅館經營效率衡量之研究－隨機邊界法之應用，旅遊管理研究，第三卷第1期，頁63-77。
陳勁甫、黃秋閔 (2001)，台北地區國際觀光旅館經營效率之研究，旅遊管理研究，第一卷第1期，頁27-46。
鄭敏玉 (2000)，台灣觀光旅館副品質與經營績效之研究－以台北地區國際觀光旅館為例，私立銘傳大學管理科學研究所碩士論文，台北。
顏昌華 (1996)，針對台灣地區國際觀光旅館經營績效評估研究，私立中國文化大學觀光事業研究所碩士論文，台北。
顏曉筠 (2005) ，高科技電子產業研發投入對公司價值之縱橫門檻分析，淡江大學財務金融研究所碩士論文，台北。
邊雲花（2001），臺灣國際觀光旅館經營型態與效率之研究，朝陽科技大學休閒事業管理系碩士論文，台中。


英文文獻
Anderson, R. I, R. Fork, and J. Scott (2000),“Hotel Industry Efficiency: An Advanced Linear Programming Examination,” American Business Review, 18(1), 40-48.
Barros, Carlos Pestana (2004), “A Stochastic Cost Frontier in the Portuguese Hotel Industry,” Tourism Economics, 10(2), 177-192
Barros, Carlos Pestana (2005), “Measuring Efficiency in the Hotel Sector,” Annals of Tourism Research, 32(2), 456-477.
Barros, Carlos Pestana (2006), “Analysing the Rate of Technical Change in the Portuguese Hotel Industry,” Tourism Economics, 12(3), 325-46
Bernini, Cristina, Marzia Freo and Attilio Gardini (2004), “Quantile Estimation of Frontier Production Function,” Empirical Economics, 29(2), 373-81
Borkovic, Zeljka Hrs, Biljana Kulisic and Margareta Zidar (2008), “Energy Audit--Method for Energy Conservation in Hotels,” Tourism and Hospitality Management, 14(2), 349-58Chiang, W. E., M. H. Tsai and L. S. M. Wang (2004), “A DEA Evaluation of Taipei Hotels,” Annals of Tourism Research, 31(3), 712-715
Chan, K. S. (1993) , “Consistency and Limiting Distribution of the Least Squares Estimator of a Continuous Threshold Autoregressive Model,” The Annals of Statistics, 21, 520-533
Charnes, A., W. W. Cooper and E. Rhodes (1978), “Measuring the Efficiency of Decision Making Units,” European journal of operational research, 2(4), 429-444
Farrell, M.J. (1957), “The Measurement of Productive Efficiency,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 120(3), 253-290.
Hansen, B. E. (1996),“Inference When a Nuisance Parameter is not Identified under the Null Hypothesis,” Econometrica, 64, 413-430
Hansen, B. E. (1999), “Threshold Effects in Non-Dynamic Panels: Estimation, Testing and Inference,” 68, 575-603.
Hansen, B. E. (2000), “Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,” Econometrica, 68, 575-603
Hwang, S. N. and T.Y. Chang(2003), “Using Data Envelopment Analysis to Measure Hotel Managerial Efficiency Change in Taiwan,” Tourism Management, 24(4), 357-369
Ivankovic, Gordana (2005), “Decision-Making Information for Different Levels and Hotel Performance,” Economic and Business Review, 7(2), 137-56
Morey, R. C. and D. A. Dittman (1995), “Evaluating a Hotel GMs’ Performance,” Cornell Hotel and Restaurant Administration Quarterly, 36(5), 30-35.
Norman, M., and B. Stoker (1991), Data Envelopment Analysis, the Assessment of Performance. New Jersey: Wiley.
Reckoska, Gordana Petrovska, Risto Reckoski and Angela Vasileska (2008), “Energy Consumption in Hotel Industry--Case Study in Ohrid,” Tourism and Hospitality Management, 14(2), 291-300
Tsaur, S. H. (2001), “The Operation Efficiency of International Tourist Hotels in Taiwan,” Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 6(1), 73-87.
Tong.H. (1978), On a Threshold Model, in C.H. Chen (ed.).“Pattern Recognition and Signal Processing,” Amsterdan: Sijthoff & Noordhoff, 101-141
Tong, H. and Kim K. S. Lim (1978), “Threshold Autoregressions, Limit Cycles, and Data,” Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, 42, 245-292.
Wang, Fei-Ching, Wei-Ting Hung and Jui-Kou Shang, (2006), “Measuring the Cost Efficiency of International Tourist Hotels in Taiwan,” Tourism Economics, 12(1), 65-85
Wang, Yuan-Huei, Wen-Fu Lee and Chu-Chun Wong, (2007), “Productivity and Efficiency Analysis of International Tourist Hotels in Taiwan: An Application of the Stochastic Frontier Approach,” Taiwan Economic Review, 35(1), 55-86 (In Chinese with English summary.)