臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

當駕駛者行於道路時，道路存在釵h不確定因素，不同等級之道路，含有不同的風險因素。本研究欲探討國道一號道路風險因子評估，以2009年國道1號高速公路之事故資料為基礎，採集道路事故之風險因子，以風險矩陣評估國道一號危險路段，將危險路段之因子，結合貝氏網路分析，構建肇事嚴重性之機率，由前述找出國道一號之危險路段與事故嚴重機率。再者透過專家問卷，運用有效加權平均數得到專家知識所認為最危險之因子，並將兩者做比較，找出實際事故資料推論與專家知識推論之間差異，尋求實際事故資料與專家知識之結合，藉此降低道路風險值，以利後續研究與發展。

There are some inevitable risk factors for drivers driving within the roadway and the factors are evidently different for different roadways. The main purpose for this study is to collect and then evaluate the risk factors against the driving safety for the Sun Yat-Sen Freeway located in Taiwan area. According to the official traffic accident data in 2009, the risk factors then can be outlined, the dangerous roadway sections then can be evaluated by the risk matrix. The Bayesian network will finally be applied to combine with the risk matrix. Accordingly, the dangerous roadway sections along the probability of the traffic accident can be clearly pointed out. Besides, this study uses Ordered Weight Average (OWA), in order to get the most dangerous factors from the panel of expert questionnaires. It finds out the difference between the accident data and expert knowledge. The results seek to combine the real accidents and expert knowledge, it can be developed in the future.

致謝 I
摘要 III
Abstract IV
目錄 V
圖目錄 VII
表目錄 VIII
第一章 緒論 1
1.1研究背景與動機 1
1.2研究目的 2
1.3研究範圍 3
1.4研究內容與方法 3
1.5研究流程 4
第二章 文獻回顧 6
2.1 道路安全風險因子文獻 6
2.2 道路設計影響安全之文獻 10
2.3 貝氏網路應用之文獻 16
2.4 有序加權平均應用之文獻 18
第三章 研究方法 21
3.1 風險矩陣 21
3.2 貝氏網路 23
3.2.1 貝氏定理基礎 23
3.2.2圖示模型(Graphic Model)與推論 24
3.2.3學習(Learning) 27
3.2.4 決策(Decision)與效用 28
3.3 有序加權平均數 28
3.3.1 OWA 運算元之基本概念 29
3.3.2 獲得OWA 權重 30
3.3.3 多準則決策之運用 31
3.3.4 OWA整合應用於模糊模型 31
第四章 資料收集與問卷設計 33
4.1肇事資料蒐集 33
4.1.1 台灣地區高速公路肇事情形 33
4.1.2 研究路段肇事狀況 35
4.1.3 風險因子變數 40
4.1.4 風險因子之機率分配 43
4.1.5高風險因子 53
4.2 問卷擬定方案 55
第五章 構建道路風險模式 57
5.1 道路風險值計算 57
5.2 事故假設與擬定 59
5.2.1研究情境與條件機率 59
5.3 A1事故問卷風險分析資料 65
5.3.1問卷資料之信度 66
5.3.2模糊偏好矩陣資料轉化 66
第六章 風險控制與模式結果 73
6.1風險控制-運用風險矩陣 73
6.2貝氏網路模式推理結果 74
6.3 有序加權平均推測步驟與結果 80
6.4 貝氏網路與有序加權平均數風險比較分析 87
第七章 結論與建議 90
7.1 結論 90
7.2 建議 91
參考文獻 93
中文文獻 93
英文文獻 94
附錄-研究問卷 97

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