臺灣博碩士論文加值系統

本研究主要目的在於探討離心式冰水機故障偵測與診斷策略中，性能指標迴歸模式之預測準確性對於故障偵測率與故障診斷率之影響，藉以找出發展離心式冰水機FDD策略之最適用的性能指標迴歸模式。首先使用實驗室模擬數據，以五種冰水機迴歸模式，針對十一種性能指標之預測準確性進行綜合評估。再藉由離心式冰水機六種漸變故障模擬數據，以五種冰水機性能指標迴歸模式，進行故障偵測與診斷率分析。
研究結果發現：MP及FEMP Model擁有最佳之性能指標預測準確性， CVRMSE皆為2.03%。此外MP及FEMP Model在故障偵測與診斷率上之表現亦為最佳，平均故障診斷率皆為96.91%；由此可知，具有較高預測準確性之性能指標迴歸模式，其故障之偵測及診斷率亦較佳。由於FEMP Model計算程序較MP Model複雜，因此MP Model為最適用於做為發展離心式冰水機FDD策略之性能指標迴歸模式。

This research mainly explores the influence of predicting accuracy of performance-index regression models on fault detection and diagnosis rate, so as to get the best performance-index regression models for developing centrifugal chiller FDD strategy. First, use the experimental data─five centrifugal chiller regression models, to make an overall evaluation of eleven performance indices’ predicting accuracy. And then apply the six soft- fault experimental data into five performance-index regression models to analyze Fault detection and diagnosis rate.
The result shows that MP and FEMP model have the best predicting accuracy in performance indices as well as fault detection-and-diagnosis rate, with CVRMSE 2.03% and the average rate of fault detection and diagnosis reaching up to 96.91%. It indicates that performance-index regression models with higher predicting accuracy can do better at Fault detection and diagnosis rate. The calculative procedure of FEMP model is much more complicated than MP Model so it is the most suitable performance-index regression model for developing the centrifugal chiller FDD strategy.

摘要 i
ABSTRACT ii
誌謝 iii
目錄 iv
表目錄 vi
圖目錄 vii
第一章 前言 1
1.1 研究背景與動機 1
1.2 文獻回顧 4
1.3 研究目的 8
第二章 故障偵測與診斷理論概述 9
2.1 離心式冰水機故障 9
2.2 故障偵測與診斷理論介紹 11
2.2.1 故障偵測 11
2.2.2 故障診斷 11
2.2.3 故障評估 12
2.2.4 系統反應 12
第三章 離心式冰水機故障偵測與診斷策略 13
3.1 性能指標定義 14
3.2 性能指標迴歸模式介紹 17
3.2.1 性能指標迴歸模式 17
3.2.2 擬合係數求解流程 20
3.2.3 預測品質判定準則 22
3.3 故障偵測門檻 24
3.4 故障分類器 26
第四章 實驗數據分析 28
4.1 實驗系統與設備 28
4.2 實驗內容 29
第五章 結果與討論 34
5.1 PI迴歸模式預測準確性之綜合評估 34
5.2 PI迴歸模式準確性對FDD策略影響之分析 45
第六章 結論 76
參考文獻 77
符號說明 80

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